Member Info for esduk

Don't worry Jimzi, it's 56p bid / 58p ask now. The market wasn't fooled by the MM's wide spread.

Lots of £10k buys rolling in

We're going to move into positive territory shortly.

I got too much fomo so had a small top up at 54.99p.

Out of interest, what was the cheapest anyone on the BB bought at this morning?

You are indeed very correct sir, my sincere apologies. In my school run rush I conflated the 20% drop in the Canadian price yesterday with your 10% mid price differential comment. I still don't think we follow Canada i.e. UK investors see a sell off in Canada for no apparent reason and decide to sell their shares, or vice versa. I could count on one hand the times that we have since I've been invested. If we did follow Canada we'd still be sitting at their mid price now.

But as mentioned in my earlier post, MM's can take advantage of a drop in the Canadian price to drop the open here and create some panic selling. The Canadian and UK prices are also both influenced by the same macro factors, which increasingly play a roll in our day to day SP movement (for good or bad). Sentiment on rare earth shares has been very low for the last couple of days, as evidenced by USAR. Looking at their chatboards they seem to be blaming the US/Aussie deal, which shows you little they know about their investment. They all seem to be rampy momentum traders who have little clue about the rare earth industry or the company. Night and day difference to this board, which reminds me how lucky we are here.

Was doing school drop off so missed all the fun / opportunity! Was a clear case of MM’s taking advantage, absolutely no justification for a drop down of that size based on selling. Glad to see it was bought well, unfortunately I missed the opportunity.

SG, slightly disagree with you on the Canada point. When we closed yesterday at 4.30pm UK time Mkango was trading at 92c CAD, at close it was 90c. So imo your 20% drop posts missed that context. Regardless, MM’s tried to take advantage of general RE market weakness / Canadian SP this morning, so well done to you and others who took advantage.

SG, I think you are focussing a bit too much on Canada price, particularly when it is so thinly traded. We don’t tend to follow Canada, they tend to follow us, and also seem to get much more extreme swings (remember when they were 30%+ up a while back, didn’t result in the same for us). Perhaps investors over there are more correlated with investors in stocks like USAR.

Someone posted something a few weeks ago which provided an update on how things were going at Tyseley. Can’t remember the source exactly, but may have been notes someone had taken while listening to a presentation by an employee. Said something about first revenues having been received etc. I remember thinking it was very encouraging at the time. Not sure who posted it, but would be worth posting again. Though I agree an official update from the company would be preferable, if there are positive things to update us on.

Looks like we move pretty fast, up or down on relatively little volume, just a higher volatility environment all round. At least yesterday showed that it can be in both directions as the MM’s didn’t hold it back. Yes news is the thing that will move this to the next level / to new ATH’s.

Alex liked another LinkedIn post about US Department of War investment in miners. I think the trail of breadcrumbs is potentially quite obvious to see…

The Pentagon is going long on miners.

The #Trump administration has instructed the #DepartmentofWar to take a 10% stake in Trilogy Metals Inc. and to help fund South32’s Arctic copper and zinc project in Alaska. This follows a 5% equity position in Lithium Americas Corp. earlier this month.

Alongside that, the #Pentagon and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) have deployed billions across #NorthAmerican projects including MP Materials, Graphite One Inc., Electra Battery Materials Corporation, Lynas Rare Earths Ltd and Perpetua Resources.

#Washington is no longer acting as a passive supporter. It is behaving like a strategic investor, using equity, grants and loans to secure the metals it needs for defence and industry. While #Canada is taking a more cautious path, offering grants and fast-track approvals but stopping short of direct ownership.

The real question is whether we are entering an era where mineral financing becomes an instrument of state policy. When the government starts taking equity, the market stops being neutral.

#US #criticalminerals #mining

Looks like it SG, they also moved to a 4p advertised spread a few minutes before close. Regardless, it was a positive day, building on the turnaround in momentum yesterday, despite resource/other RE shares doing poorly today. Big buyers are back and selling has eased off somewhat. Looking forward to news.

It’s also harder to tell in terms of shakes these days as the price action is so obscured by most of the material trades being delayed reported (even those under the 50k NMS), interspersed with all the micro trade bullcarp.

US resource shares are down heavily (including USAR) and we lost some momentum just after US markets opened. The main thing about today though is that there are big buyers back accumulating, which is very healthy heading into a news rich period.

Yes I wondered about that too. I’m not clued up on the extent to which the federal government is / federal government employees are normally involved in a NASDAQ listing process (potential DoD investments aside).

Sorry, misread your question. Probably depends where we are at with German plant and Hypromag USA by the time of the listing. If we get that news before the listing then I think SP on listing should be no lower than £1.50, but could be easily higher than that level. Throw in DoD involvement in MKAR and / or Hypromag USA and we should be talking well above £2 share.

It’s certainly possible to guesstimate it. Remember the $400m indicative value is just Mkango’s share of MKAR, CrownProptech also have a share, about $70m based on the indicative valuation and share structure.

Then there will be the PIPE financing alongside, and I reckon in this market they may try and raise the full equity portion needed for Songwe, so perhaps $50-100m or so.

So the market cap of MKAR, including all the above, is likely to be around $550m at the bottom end. I could certainly see it being nearer to $1bn in the current market, and if the US DoD take a slice, all bets are off. Suffice to say our current market cap will be blown out of the water even under the conservative scenarios.

Thar she blows, 61p bid / 64p ask, 14% up.

In fact there’s just one MM left on the ask at 62p.

12% up, and seems to have really strong momentum.