Member Info for esduk

Oh and on a lighter note, we have actually 15 bagged from our low last year ;-)

Fair challenge on the terminology cristal and I did say earlier that consolidation was both likely and healthy. In my defence though I would say that I was referring to a specific situation in the last 30 minutes before close where we had a big drop in the bid over a short period of time with no reported sells of any volume (at all!), rather than referring to the overall pull back today. When we don't have any evidence to go on i.e. large selling being reported at the time, MM tactics are always a possibility.

Looking at the delayed trades I don't see anything that would normally cause that kind of drop (65p on the bid to 62p on the bid and 67p on the ask to 64p on the ask). There are a couple of 50k (likely) sells in there, and a 33k sell, but that's it. Taking the total sold volume in the last half hour (including the delayed reported ones) I get c.198k, against c.130k volume bought, so unless there are more large sells to yet be reported from the last half hour, imo there is little justification for such a drop in SP.

Don't disagree with with taking a breath comment, but haven't seen any trades that would justify the big drop in the last half hour. Felt to me at the time, and still does now, like MM's taking advantage of people fearing that we were correcting after a big rise. Just my opinion though and it would change if those big sell trades turn up tomorrow.

UT at 64p to close. Will be interesting to see the delayed reported trades today from after close to see what was behind this drop, and whether it was overdone.

That’s quite the tree shake, have topped up in 63’s.

It's nearly impossible to track the live trades now with all these micro trades, all a bit ridiculous really and shouldn't be allowed imo. We get the bid dropping from 67p to 65p without any major reported sells, but hundreds of micro trades. If they want things to be opaque they are certainly getting their way.

The 14 day RSI, the relevant one, wasn't in the high 90's at that point, it was more like mid-80's. But regardless, I agree with a pull back being expected and healthy. Current 14 day RSI is 76.

Btw cristal, I don't think that the 1.05m trade yesterday at 71p was a sell. We only had 1.1m traded above 71p yesterday, plenty of which were sells themselves. So to me this makes the likelihood of it being a sell quite low, otherwise the MM's would have lost a lot of money. I think it is more likely a buy / worked buy.

HNW investors who are worth their salt are able to invest in all major jurisdictions, their family offices make sure of that. I think the volume traded on TSX-V and here during US market hours, always picking up around US market open, makes it pretty clear that US buying is a large factor in this rise.

US institutions can certainly buy on AIM, so you are wrong there. Look at Greatland Gold's list of shareholders before they cross-listed on the ASX (when they only had an AIM listing). All the majors, including BlackRock, Goldmans etc held large positions. Not sure where you are getting your info from, but think you may need to do some more research on this point. Bonker can confirm the Greatland point.

We've already talked about the massive value disconnect between Mkango and its US peers, and given that there is a strong likelihood of the MKAR and Hypromag businesses both being listed in the US within the next year or so, US investors will see the opportunity to make massive money here.

So I respectfully disagree with your post.

See second paragraph of my post below. LSE do not know whether the trades are buys or sells, they just rely on their algorithm to categorise trades as buys or sells based on their relationship with the mid price. Don't worry / pay attention to how trades are reported on here.

That's not true Serendipity. On AIM, outside of auctions, buys are defined as a investor purchasing shares from a market maker. Sells are defined as an investor selling shares to a market maker. So on AIM, where there is always (outside of auctions) a MM counterparty, it is not the case that Belioz's buy was someone else's sell, at least not in the same trade.

The buys / sells reported on LSE are just based on LSE's algorithm which reported any trade over mid price as a buy and any trade below mid price as a sell. This often leads to buys and sells being misreported, particularly when MM's stated position on L2 are quite far from the real bid / ask spread.

Always possible LockerRoom. If my theory about American institutional / HNW investors is correct though, they are only going to be buyers (they haven't been invested long enough to be sellers). They are also unlikely to be worrying about TA as they are jumping on an highly undervalued share (vs US peers and bottom up valuation calcs) and buying into the rare earth narrative. So we may see consolidation, at this level, which is healthy. But we may also see these US investors drive the price higher as they are relatively price inelastic (at these low valuation levels) and are likely to be unconcerned with fibs, MA and other technical indicators.

I appreciate that Bonker. But we don't need six posts about Rainbow on this board, everyone here is aware of Rainbow and Pensana and if they wanted to diversify their portfolio they don't need all the cross ramping to do it.

I've adapted my strategy somewhat in recent times Bod. I used to go all in from day one if I had the money available, but I now try and invest in tranches. Particularly when looking at unloved shares, I don't mind if the SP goes down after my first investment, as it just allows me to fill my full position at a cheaper price. So you've played it exactly how I would.

The only reason Sovereign isn't higher is that Gold / RE etc stocks have all the attention and everyone knew there would be no major news here until CY Q4 so there was no imperative to be in over the summer. That has now changed and I believe the train is just leaving the station.

Morning bonker, we seem to have the same good taste, or maybe just love ourselves a bit of Malawi... I know you're not a fan, but listening to Rick Rule was the reason I first invested here. He is very repetitive, but the strategy of looking for tier one deposits in unloved commodities, in unloved jurisdictions is imo a great strategy for those with a 3-5 year timeframe. Here I only had to wait 9 months it seems...

Btw, when he ranked my portfolio, he gave Mkango a good rating (by his standards!). Not as high a Sovereign though.

Yes indeed Bod, and we will see whether the normal pattern of AIM morning selling to US afternoon buying continues like it has for the past month now. I've added a little on this pull back.

Seems like we're having a bit of a shake, hold onto something.

Nice to see you here Bod. I first invested at 31-32p earlier this year and had been using Sovereign as a bit of a cash store i.e. I kept my spare cash in here and sold when I wanted to jump into short term opportunities before funnelling some profits back in here. Glad to say though that I got the timing right on this occasion, which was made easier after listening to Sapan on the weekend. He kind of gave the game away, so I filled my remaining position Monday and Tuesday.

Stroke of luck to get all my final top ups in yesterday, fully loaded now just as the train is taking off.

A post from a guy I follow on LinkedIn referring to the Atlantic Council’s recent simulation on China turning off taps to US. We’ve got a solution to the problem…

“The US could lose a mineral war without a single shot being fired.

Neodymium. Dysprosium. Manganese. Not the commodities we have spoken about much in the past 10 year but without them, your EVs don’t move, your missiles don’t guide, and your grids don’t store power.

The Atlantic Council just ran a simulation on what happens if China turns off the tap. It wasn’t pretty.

Within weeks, US stockpiles run dry.

Within months, defence and civilian industries start rationing.

Within a year, the country recovers maybe 10% of lost supply.

And that’s just the geopolitical scenario. Add climate into the mix, droughts in South Africa, heatwaves in Australia, power cuts in China and even “friendly” supply dries up. No villains required. Just weather.

The report found the same brutal truth every time, America’s emergency tools, the Defense Production Act, stockpiles, export controls can shuffle the deck, but they can’t create new cards. The real constrain t isn’t mining. It’s refining as most of us in the industry know, but the general public don't

Because when both geopolitics and climate hit at once, “friend shoring” becomes “every nation for itself.” ”

Cadelin, most are buys imo. But there is no doubt that there are some sells there too given we came back down from a bid of 72p to close at a bid of 68p. The sell quote at close was actually 68.5p but it appears we don’t do 0.5p’s anymore, another sign we’ve made it!

Sigas, I love the analogy. You know plenty and you knew to invest in this little gem at the right time and stick to your guns. That’s a lot more nous than most of the American investors who have got rich on crypto, AI and meme stocks and will probably lose it all when the bubble finally bursts.

SG, I think crossing £200m was a big deal, but potentially bigger was the fact that we crossed £100m three months ago last week. Most institutions need the share to stay above a £100m market cap for three months before investing. Could be a coincidence but could certainly also be part of the reason.

Adding the volume from another very strong day in Canada, we traded about £8m in value today. Looking forward to hopefully backing it up tomorrow, which may be likely if the Canadian performance is anything to go by.