RE: BOD18 Nov 2025 10:47
A pretty fair summary Fevertreeman. We haven't yet got the SP catalysts needed to move us to the next level and the general RE and market sentiment has been a drag over the past few weeks.
I think the chances of the SPAC not happening are low, given the well known urgency around Western RE supply chains. We had an indicative valuation of our share of MKAR at $400m, which preceded the MP/DoD deal, the explosive move in RE stocks and our funding from the IDFC for Songwe FEED. If we had listed at the peak of the US/China RE tensions I think that valuation would have been much closer to $1bn.
As it stands I think we are probably still looking at something above the $400m valuation, say $500-600m for argument's sake. If the US markets collapse and don't recover then I think you can probably half that number, so $250-300m. Even at that valuation we would be well above the current SP, and without taking Hypromag into account. The thing is, the US government gets so much of its tax receipts from the US stock market performance, so it can't really afford for the stock market to tank long term. I think the most likely scenario, if we get a crash, is for them to pump up the M2 money supply to increase liquidity, reflate asset prices and we get a whole lot of inflation.
Meanwhile, we will have two operating assets that by the second quarter of next year should be bringing in some serious cash. We should also have the Final Investment Decision on our Texas plant, and potentially the other two as well. For those in any doubt, I think another read of Myles' weekend posts is in order.