Member Info for esduk

Well they’ve opened us down 6%, probably just because of general market yesterday. This is the way of things now. MM’s positions are now influenced by more than just buying and selling pressure.

Looks like we lost a fair bit of momentum late morning as general market moved lower and then again when US markets opened and moved down substantially. We’re currently back to even (if you don’t count the UT last night), whereas USAR is currently down 8%.

Looking like a good day, 7% up in ten first hour of trading.

If you are into Gold and / or silver miners, I recommend watching Don Durrett’s videos on YouTube, where he goes through his valuations and risk assessments for all the major explorers, developers and producers. Obviously my previous post is not in any way a recommendation to buy those shares.

I’m going to assume that this is addressed to me. To everyone other than duttonpa, sorry in advance for off topic post.

I am in a range of silver developers and producers, all of them listed in Canada (majority) or the US.

Biggest holdings (with big development projects and near production):

Aya Gold and Silver (very undervalued, partly due to short attack)

Silver Storm

Vizsla Silver

Medium positions (mainly producers)

Pan American Silver

Hecla Mining

Coeur Mining

Discovery Silver

GoGold (misleading name..)

Speculative positions:

Cerro de Pasco Resources

Guanajuato Silver

So I’ve probably named about half the credible silver producers/developers out there, as there are not many dedicated silver miners about (even many of those I’ve listed make more from gold than silver). With a 4%+ rise in silver prices both yesterday and today they are doing well, but still all massively underpriced as the market is still valuing them on $30-35 silver proces (silver closed today over $53, $1 off ATH).

In terms of British listed companies I don’t like the way Hochschild is run and Fresnillo has too much Mexico risk. Haven’t looked at any AIM minnows, I have enough risk as it is.

Nice little tick up just before close today and we end the day over 5% up, with a mid price above 50p. A positive day, with relatively low volume but an absence of big sells. Very encouraging.

The incentive plan as previously published has management likely to miss out on at least 60% of proposed RSUs. They missed the end of June deadline for commercial operations at Tyesely (albeit only by 7 days), which was 20%, and are looking likely to miss the SPAC listing by end of December, which was another 40%. The German plant by end of year would give them 40% of the RSUs.

Someone keeps sticking 80-100k on the bid on L2 periodically. This time it was only partially filled by the UT and precipitated an increase in the SP to 49p.

And crucially, I should have added low waste, as per your link.

There is no doubt that the market is missing the Hypromag opportunity. While the Don has been good to rare earth stock share prices (including ours) one of my worries was that his disregard (and perhaps loathing) of anything green/environmental would reduce our advantage over other players in the market.

But I think the economics and low energy and water consumption still make our process more compelling than others so we don't necessarily need to lean on the sustainability/carbon point, in the US market at least, and are able to remarket it to appeal to the current US administration. If you are a community in Texas, would you prefer to have an energy efficient, low water and low chemical usage plant on your doorstep or would you prefer the opposite. I think the answer is pretty clear. Environmental factors and social licence still matter at the local level.

That is very much the thesis of Tavi Costa, an analyst I follow on LinkedIn and YouTube.

Agree that these things are all linked. I have big silver miner positions and as well as benefiting from its monetary metal status, it is also crucial for electrification and other industries mentioned and has been in deficit for five years now.

I now have no investments in non-resource shares. With the build out of AI and electrification of the developed and developing world another resource super cycle is possible. The resource sector just really interests me as it brings together macroeconomics (which I studied), geopolitics (which is what I like to spend time listening to/reading about) and project risk (I'm a gambler at heart).

But I only have so much money to invest and so I haven't really dabbled in oil and gas, and I don't have the funds for major investments in copper. Same for uranium. My focus right now is Mkango (RE), gold and silver and if and when these investment themes play out I will eventually rotate into others. But while doing so I will make sure to take funds off the table to pay off/pay down the mortgage and enjoy things. I will also never go all in on one company again like I have with Mkango, it will be a once in a lifetime investment for me.

Velcro, I am invested in a few copper miners and also Cotec to get exposure to this theme. There are mixed views on the short term price given its susceptibility to a US downturn, but by the end of the decade we will have large copper deficits and there are fewer and fewer tier 1 deposits being discovered.

Given the timeframe to get new mines online the 2030's deficits are nailed on, even under lower demand growth scenarios. Also look at the issues with Kamoa-Kakula and Grasberg recently, projects that are responsible for about 5% of global supply each which have had major issues/incidents and are currently not producing/not producing at full capacity. Copper will be a great long term bet and I have made sure I have a some exposure now, which I plan to increase over the next few years. Sorry for off topic!

I listen to Luke Gromen’s Forest for the trees podcast and watch most of the interviews he does. Very insightful and often right. He has been investing in companies that will benefit from the US grid buildout for some time and has been calling the state of the grid out as the main weakness in US’s battle with China in the AI race. I assume we will pick industrial park sites for our Hypromag USA plants with an existing grid connection and also assume that our use of electricity is lower than in other RE recycling and refining processes.

Funnily enough it coincided with a big jump in buying volume...

Post of the day to Aldebaran.

Indeed Kaeren, but in the spirit of healthy debate and not shooting down people I decided to give him/her the benefit of the doubt and engage in a well mannered and constructive way rather than just dismiss the post outright as de-ramping.

Not sure I see your logic there. Whether you hold at an average of 5p or 54p, it doesn't change the relative importance of a few 10k sells, measured by volume of sells compared to volume of buys (the driver of the share price) or compared to total average daily volume. Volume here over the past few weeks has been averaging in the multi-millions. So a total of c. 50k in 10k sells is pretty small fry. If you're worried about a few 10k sells then it feels like you might be in the wrong share / market, but I'll leave that for you to judge.

I Strangler, it seems your last post was removed, as my response to it was greeted with a "this page no longer exists message". For the record, my response was as follows:

"Strangler, this is the kind of thing I was referring to in my post yesterday. You post about a few 10k sells, and "nervousness", with that title... are you for real? If there had of been the same number of 100k sells then I might have taken some notice. What was it that Naomi Campbell famously said? Something along the lines of "I don't get out of bed for 10k darling"..."

Sorry, I just woke up and still half asleep. Reading it back it does sound like a joke?