Member Info for ericnat17

We have another positive, JP plan surely can’t be triggered at these levels to sell shares. But bear in mind just as it starts to get near a respectable level there maybe a backlog of his trades to go through. He has many options to take up prior to The deadline. And the only way he is maintaining that 3.1 million is via selling some of his current shares.

He has 3 million options vesting in March prices at 16p.

Thank Boder

It would be nice to get more info from the company regarding the ground analysis work they have been doing. I know you said you spoke to the team at the DD, but is this information in the “public domain”. Or did they say they were going to release it?

Hi dodge

So you are saying a company will pay 90% of the value of the extracted gas, up front and will be happy to take a bit of risk and tie up a millions of pounds for many many years for 10% margin. IMO I am not sure that is likely.

No chance of company going bust. They are funded for 2 more. I would imagine they are letting staff go..to reduce costs.

Yes I hold stock, I sold approx 50% a few months ago, but had been buying small chunks, none since TE9 result.

I would doubt very much that my ramblings will have any effect on the SP.

It would appear a potential news leak of the poor P&P result of TE9 to a few lucky people seemed to move the SP.

Sorry guys I’ll post what I want when I want.

Soundtrader,

Jp sold 1million shares at 40p. I think most of us thought it was very strange at the time. Hindsight is a wonderful thing.

Hi woods

The 650bcf is The GOIP figure, mid case. That is gas originally in place.

The 1c resources for TE5 is 197bcf, this is the what we can definitely get out of TE5, no question.

Re factsToday 15:47The 0.65 at TE5 Horst is GOIP. And in JJ calculation he is using P Values.

I think any buyer would use the 1C contingent Resources number of 197bcf and drop the 50% recovery

That comes out at 197 X .47 X 1.5 = 13.8p.

Then apply a discount for a margin and tying up capital. ( 30%), so maybe About 10pps. That is for the TE5 Horst.

The is value in the rest of the license and Sidi, but don’t forget we have approx 40 million in liabilities/debt.

This may seem a little negative, but IMO this is how a potentiy buyer of the asset.

The 0.65 at TE5 Horst is GOIP. And in JJ calculation he is using P Values. <br /><br />I think any buyer would use the 1C contingent Resources number of 197bcf and drop the 50% recovery<br /><br />That comes out at 197 X .47 X 1.5 = 13.8p. <br /><br />Then apply a discount for a margin and tying up capital. ( 30%), so maybe About 10pps. That is for the TE5 Horst. <br /><br />The is value in the rest of the license and Sidi, but don’t forget we have approx 40 million in liabilities/debt.<br /><br />This may seem a little negative, but IMO this is how a potentiy buyer of the asset.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1876380416300672

https://ac.els-cdn.com/S1876380416300672/1-s2.0-S1876380416300672-main.pdf?_tid=89439998-7db1-42a0-a0d4-7a219ec78d6e&acdnat=1543140778_5348cea80521524deecb5ddfd0594ff8

I was looking through companies house ( fun Sunday morning). And saw the charge against Sound Energy of approx 28 million euro, I think this the debt due 2021. I think we also have 8.6 million potential liability with the Italian portfolio that CORO did not take on.
A few weeks ago these figures where insignificant, but now looking at the SP and the potential LE, they are far more important. And these are the ones I have found. Anymore anybody?

Jack

I think it is driven by the calendar also. But the event maybe the LE or it maybe the commencement of Plan B synchronised with the departure of JP. He said he would stay until the End, he has never said what defined the end...

Lucky

He won’t, he is so focused on moving straight to TE10 ( mistake no 3)

It appears that he just wants to move through the motions without deviation. It is like he is already thinking about life after Sound. He would not do that would he....

Unless the GSA is out of this world, my guess is it wont help. The GSA is the first part of a protracted process to prove viability of the TE5 Horst. The Major stumbling block will be the Financing of the BOT. Enagas are going to the banks for the funding and we know what the will be like.
JP has made the usual bullisih comments, basically saying it is worth waititng for and the the price is more important than the when it is going to be delivered.

The one thing in the back of my mind is they really only have one potential customer ONEE, a state owned company. Who is selling the Gas ONHYM a state owned company. I think this is where we have the delay, we may be in a bit of a pickle with the state trying to get the sweet spot where sound just have enough margin to keep going with thte GSA and ONEE get the GAS as cheap as possible with the help of ONHYM. Basically ONHYM have a pretty big conflict of interest.

it wont take much to significantly move the SP. It appears that we are oversold, like a lot of O&G but we have the over hyped Argentinian Macro Finance issues that are holding us back.

I would not be surprised if we will start to see positive movements very soon and we could be double our current SP before we hear news of EMS1001

Hi GRH

Sorry I am not making myself very clear. You have said that TE9 would have been a negative location. So I assume that you have already carried out some analysis of the well location.

We al know there is a Gas discovery at the SBK well location, does your current analysis of the eastern Morocco license show this as a hotspot or not a hotspot?

No worries if you cant answer.

Hi Graham

I have noticed that you have called the the technology could have helped with Badile and TE9

Would it have found SBK gas discovery? I think you said that it would have found TE5 Horst.?

Thanks in Advance

Hi LW

if we consider the TE5 horst t be worth approx. 250million to Sound, then a license that we paid 10million for in the grand scheme of things is worth 4% of that, so not much.

Of course we could have got the bargain of the centuary and it could be worth 5 time what we paid even at that it is not much. Lets not forget when we agreed the deal the SP was at about todays levels and that equates to paying petromaroc just over 3 million pounds for it...i am trying to be realistic with the asset and understanding that every deal that sound does is not going to bring us a 10 bagger....

Hi Border

Did JC mention anything about the satellite image over TE9. I assume that must have looked good also because as far as I am aware they had the access to the same data and they chose TE9 and TE10 locations at the same time.

The problem is if we get 3 dusters, I really think that any buyer will be just looking at the TE5 Horst to value the company. I think we got Sidi for 21 million shares. so at the time that averaged about £10 million pounds. So in the grand scheme Sidi is not worth much.

Looking at the TE5 horst the new figures can estimate it to be worth 23pps to sound. Now that is the NAV if we stay to production and spend 15 years producing gas. So for me not really a figure to base any share price on for an ongoing concern and defiantly not for a sale of the asset.

Any buyer will look at the Horst and see risk, Risk that we may have pockets of P&P problems, Risk that the Infrastructure may not be as straight forward (not the BOT infrastructure), General political risk (new morocco hydrocarbon Law coming soon).

Any company will also want to see a big Margin I would guess at 30%, that figure is not too high. And finally any buyer will be tying up the money for many years before seeing a profit.

They explained in the DD that the seismic could not on its own show good areas of P&P but they could use it to find geological structures that should have good P&P. they explained about Alluvial fans as an example.

But that did not work, so now it is back to trying to find the reservoir and hoping that the P&P is good. that is why the COS dropped, IMHO