Member Info for ericnat17

a lot of shares changing hands today.....I wonder

31 v 31

1.7 million v 640 k

Hi Albus

You theory was put forward a few days ago, and it seems very feasible.

I think JP has understood that some of the appetite for risk has reduced with PI. So he may have on offer, question is. How much for. With shell and Repsol next door it would be an ideal purchase for them. And at this price, it is loose change to the majors.

Changed the bag twice,....

Crude

BBC news website

Oil prices claw back ground
Oil prices have trimmed falls after OPEC said it had agreed to cut output.

However, the cartel is yet to release details on how much they will reduce production until a meeting with non-OPEC members, including Russia, on Friday.

OPEC have agreed a cut. Don’t know how much yet. Will find out Friday.

Also a lot O&G down today. Even shell down over 3 %. Bloody Donald Trump

Don’t be so so tough on yourself SG47.

He has a mix of restricted and options.

I think he his bonus was paid in restricted. And he would have been given a load of options for gracing us with his presence.

What is he saying, I don’t have access

Ozzie

Thanks for the response. You are of course correct...the NPV may provide an indicative value. But the asset is worth what a company is willing to pay. I think one level and other posters think another level.

Lets hope it is at the top end of JJ calculation. Then some investors tht have got onboard in the last few months may make a profit.

I would think that plan B was always there. JP is too clever not to have a fall back plan. From Crude Video of the latest Tendrara Site visit it is pretty clear that some of the investors were given more detail. It would be nice if this could be shared. But my guess it wont be.

So without the information lets have a guess. Obviously it will involve Sound going into production. Which will mean serious dilution at these levels. So we are in for a bit of a torrid time in that scenario.

Another option is that we get a debt facility, very reasonable chance we would get a good rate with the Horst as collateral. With either of these I think JP will move on quickly to C4 Energy. JPs trading plan is confidential, and when asked will all of his options be exercised before then end of the plan he states no comment. But why do you think the plan is running for a year and within this year all of his warrants vest.....mmmm I wonder.

How will he end up with 3.1 million shares at the end of the year, your guess is as good as mind. But I think if the SP gets to a financially advantages level, JP plan will sell into any rise. Of course it will need to be a lot higher than it is today to make sense.

From my point of view the failure of TE9 was substantial. We have been told this evening that we should understand what we are being told.

Well SG47 the company told us that if TE9 fails then something is fundamentally wrong, the market seems to be following what the company has told us.

Now I suppose you are going to say that we should only listen to certain things the company tells the investors, let me guess just the positive things, yes?

OK lets be factual. The link you sent and other info on NPV seems to indicate that it is not that useful when the outcome of the investment may not be straight forward.

I would suggest that the BOT agreement would be a more appropriate mechanism for applying a NPV discount. But I am not that happy that the Horst is the same sort of risk.

And lets be completely clear the market is not always right but at the moment it is not agreeing with you or JJ or JP..

The market has us 15p, and that is not just for the Horst, that is with 2 funded drills, the rest of Tendrara and Sidi Mokar. Which would suggest that the horst is worth about 10pps. But I guess the market with all of the information in the public domain could be wrong.....

We could start talking about JP trading plan. I wonder if as soon as the SP get to a certain level there will be a backlog of trades to execute. To cover costs what would that level be?

worth a read for any new investors. Scroll down to page 13 for the English description..

http://ao.onhym.com/Documents/CDC%2014-2017%20-%20CERTIFICATION%20DES%20RESERVES%20DE%20TENDRARA_CPS.pdf

SO that was a Bit Rude...but hey that is your call..

I think an important part of your link is below.

An important drawback of using an NPV analysis is that it makes assumptions about future events that may not be reliable.

Again you may think that the TAGI is reliable, i am guessing that a company may not have the same thoughts. And there is my point....JJ maths only works out if everything works out perfectly..

.

Directors own: 0.188%

SOUND ENERGY (SOU) (mkt. cap. £151.62m @ 14.4p)
Web: http://www.soundenergyplc.com Email: info@soundenergyplc.com Tel: +44 (0) 1732 606030 Business address: 4 Pembroke Road, Sevenoaks, Kent Directors own: 0.188%

I understand all what you have said in the last few posts, but I still find it hard to understand why a company would not want a margin.

lets say Horst was worth 250 million in profit over 15 years. ( circa 23pps). why would a company pay 250 million for the asset. they would just keep their 250 million and stick it into the low yielding AAA+ and get 1.5% a year.

Thanks for the reply SO

ok so you agree there is a little more risk, as I have stated.

JJ saying 10% for tying up money in your own discovery is one thing...a buyer might have a different opinion. Does not seem much. But I guess he could be right

I though the reduction factor was in place because the recharge/production was due to Gas expansion in the reservoir rather than other means (aquifer)….

Also you have not mentioned a margin for a buyer. what would you consider a good margin to be? I mentioned 30% and that got laughed at. But I would imagine that if a company was buying the Horst with its intrinsic patchy reservoir (see ONHYM tender) then I think that is pretty fair.

Sorry SO.

I seem to remember you saying that it was wrong but did not really give a reason for that assertion. But I would be very very happy if you explain why a Buyer would not want a good margin, a little for risk and don't forget they will be tying up a lot of money for many years.

Really a would be very happy if you convince me to the contrary...