Member Info for epiphany121

And here's another interesting dynamic - the US had a blockbuster retail sales number for May and the USD is up strongly, and yet POO is up too, WTI, a bit more than Brent. There's probably an interesting bullish POO setup occurring and with any luck, even the OPEC cuts pullback, may not result in a big downswing in the POO next Friday.

Jan, I do agree with your assessment. I'm probably a bit flippant about the SP at these levels only because I took a position over the last 2 months, and I only have a small paper loss at this time (around 10%). I do empathise with longer term holders who've seen nothing but stagnation/losses over the past 3 years and I'd probably feel the same if I was in your boat. It is enormously frustrating to watch the SP on a day to day basis, and try to rationalise why we're not moving up, when others like PMO are, and it is no secret we're not in the insitutions' good books at this time. My take is that we're on the cusp of turning around, albeit with maybe a few down movements in the next few weeks/months, if POO drops, interspersed with a few upswings on a positive news cycle. To me, there'll only be a meaningful upswing after ENQ proves to the market that production is looking good and debt is coming down. And of course, we need POO to co-operate for all these to happen meaningfully. Best

Morning MO, Thanks for the update. Here's hoping that the workover does result in something substantial for us shareholders!!! On another note, we'll be tanker watching starting early next week, I suppose. 12 days hookup would mean a 22nd arrival at AK. Catcher field (PMO) seems to now getting a tanker at 8 days' interval - here's hoping that we'll be at 12 or less. Best

Yep, Chilts. Bumi was predicting that the final commissioning would occur in Q3 17, then to Q4 17. AK had issues processing the heavy oil extracted early on, and obviously ENQ was well within it's rights to seek a period of stability before 'accepting' AK and provide the Production Readiness Notice to enable Bumi to start fully realise the day rates on the AK lease. And as we know, AK was hit by bad weather in March and then somewhat of a slow start-up and all of this provided ENQ with the cover to 'seek' longer stabilisation timeframe, I'd suspect. I read that AK's day rates are in the circa $460K level, once final commissioning is done, however ENQ may be paying circa 50% of that rate at this time.

Here's the link. PRN achieved 17/05, announced on 31/05. http://www.bumiarmada.com/App_File/Image/assets/Q1%202018%20Analyst%20Briefing%20Final.pdf Bumi Armada still expecting AK PRN by the end of Q2

Frac - I can't agree more!!! ;-)

KO - every share is manipulated every day. That's the reality. Why else would there be up and down swings - with bids dropping and/or asks rising. At this time, ENQ has net, net more sellers and hence, the SP keeps meandering lower. I can't influence it, much less control it, with the funds I have and hence, as a believer in the ENQ story, I can only sit and wait without beating myself to death over day to day swings. I don't see this net negativity decreasing until there are some positive news updates.

KO - I've probably said this a hundred times (feels like it) already and to repeat, there needs to be a couple of positive news cycles before a real turnaround will happen. Till such time, we'll be up and down, and I won't be surprised to see the SP back in the 20s.

MO - agreed. I'm not SP watching hour by hour and beating myself to death over this fall. If it gets down a bit more into the 20s, I'll pile into more.

Chilts, Jan, MO - Talking of a bottom - I mean we're less than 2p away from the 20s at this time. I don't want my portfolio to be a one-trick pony, but I may well be headed there if this heads to the 20s and I'm forced to buy more. Crikey!!!

Ahh, I stand corrected, MO. You'd never bad mouth anyone, I agree. :-). I'm never one for stepping back though..Lol..

EIA was broadly bullish, compared to API. Even products had a largish draw. However, the bummer is that US production hit 10.9 million barrels/bad last week, versus 10.8 the week before. What are the frikkin Permian drillers up to?

Lol..about Squif characterisation, MO. In the meantime, the 'esteemed global leader' is at it again trying to drive down POO. Isn't he ever Twitter-tired? https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1006866982833131520

MO - I'm back now. What's the new report about? Douse my curiosity and give us some heads-up...Lol.

Cheers, MO. Your insight is most appreciated. Do keep us in the loop.

Cheers, HM. MO - Cygnus is yet again visiting AK and MT shows it's stopped on the port side of AK. Hopefully, a final set of optimisations for AK?

Frac, IMO, it's never a good strategy to hedge 100% of future production in the next couple of years. A. it can be expensive and B. upside participation is typically absent, and oil may well have more upside over the next couple of years. A hedging strategy I've seen one or two permian drillers employ, is purely to buy a put option, and that purely provides a floor and retains all of the upside. It may be expensive (I'm not 100% sure), and why this is not employed by many E&P companies.

A small draw in Crude, but large products build. On balance, bearish. Coupled with Russia pushing for a 1.8 mill bbls rollback of cuts, POO may struggle in the near term. Mr. Market is so hard to call though.

Cheers, MO. Just seen TL on the Marine Traffic map as well. I do hope we're close to the final sign-off on the AK now...

Yep, Lol - we're both interpreting this slightly differently, although I take your point about 'approximately 1.8 million' instead of stating '1.8 million barrels' . what I did want to clarify was that all of the sales in 2018 on this transaction would be at $64 a barrel as Brent was above this levels all the way through. And even if the transaction is how I interpret it. Mercuria would pay a cash difference of $6.4 million (100K monthly @64) - 4.4 million (Loan repayment monthly) = $2 million. Either way, we're talking less than 1K BOPD difference in our differing interpretations. ;-) Moving on to TL, It looks it hasn't moved for 20 hours or so, and Skandi Bergen ETA states 13/6 6:00 AM. Does this mean they're waiting till later today?