Member Info for epiphany121

Merlot5 - KO stated has AK has produced 50K BOEPD, which is correct. HK wrote 'AK has already produced 50k as stated in the previous RN' and that isn't a made up statement.

KO didn't state that AK was consistently producing 50K BOEPD which is what you seem to inferr in your posting. Of course the signoff would've occurred if we were consistently closer to that range.

KO - I do like your optimism, if only because I'm very loaded in ENQ...:-)

The cynical thought that production rates are being purposely 'constrained', in order to 1. Pay BUMI only $250K a day (instead of $500K) and 2. Save more oil for a higher price later this year, along the lines of Alma/Galia where but for the 'ESP issues' peak production would've occurred in 2017 when POO was much lower, did cross my mind

But then the realist in me rules this out. AK's probably not pumping consistently above the 40K BOEPD range and hence there's no final signoff yet. Even with the 35K to 40K BOEPD production range, ENQ gets a net 24.5K to 28K BOEPD. It's a no-brainer that even with these production figures, we should be comfortably beating the top end of the 50K to 58K BOEPD guidance in 2018.

From memory, we'll get Cairn HY update (middle of August), a few days ahead of ours, and they should give out the Kraken production numbers for HY 2018 at that time. We'll know more for sure at that time. Plus the PPRS data early August should give us a sense for how May production was tracking.

Yes, the 'boat' was indeed a bit crappy . They ordered a 20 foot boat to get the water out of the wells, but only got a 19 footer. That does explain why it's only extracting 32 litres day..Yawn!!!

Cheers Auson. Great to have you spot it and let us know.. Again, I'll agree with MO and I'm not too disappointed. We'll give it another load or two, and we'd soon have our August update anyway. Maybe Cairn will give us the first update...

Chilts, it looks like Navion Hispania is out. Headed to Aasgard. Nav Oceania is still moored off Skagen. Grena is moving, although destination isn't really updated.

ShinF,

Many of us have probably been in that boat one time or another. It happens and best to move on, as you have.

Yes, leave the daily moaning about the SP to Squiffy - their intentions confound most on this board and is hard to disagree that someone can be fundamentally against a company's management/financials and yet claim to be long!!!. KO is a 'frustrated chappie' with an incorrigible urge to provide commentary on hourly movements of the SP, when in reality that is an exercise in futility. :-) At least KO is not a subtle de-ramper.

As long as POO is at around these levels ($70 to $80), park your investment, give it a few months and watch it run after we've had positive updates from ENQ.

Best

The holders will need patience. IMO, this is not going to break to new highs on the back of this upgrade. We need fundamental news regarding ops to come out and profits upgrade/debt reduction announcements to happen before this goes into the 50s.

Patience is not a virtue for many of my fellow ENQ holders, ;-) but the reality is that one day doesn't make a trend. Wait till the H1 announcements are out of the way before we see a clear path to the 50s and beyond. Can this go down tomorrow - sure, it can...And hence the need to look long term and not fret over day to day down movements till there is clarity to the market on fundamentals..

Best

MO - I can see FS Cygnus is back at AK just now, and it looks to be lining up on the starboard side..

Heather Knutsen has just now pulled into Rotterdam and may be candidate, but as Chilts said, that could mean a delay, which is not too surprising to be honest. It may well be Sunday before we see the next tanker line up next to AK..

Let's see..

Up or Down, KO? ;-)

Cheers, MO.

If Magnus gets to the 20K BOPD figure, that's fantastic. Over the past 5 years, it hasn't shown any signs of slowing down and average production has been in the circa 12 to 13K BOPD range. 20K BOPD makes the 75% acquisition close-out even much of a no-brainer.

Here's toasting to the next footie challenge on Saturday. Bring it home, lads!!!!

Best

Morning MO,

Thanks for the Seligi heads-up. It's good to know that's on track. :-)

Are you keeping an eye out on Magnus, by any chance? You pointed us to the completed well in May and we knew there were at least one or two more planned after?

P.S: Did you watch the footie last night? That calls for an extra glass of Rose today...;-)

Best

Long time no hear, DD. Yes, your mate Squiffy is indeed alive and kicking. He's a breath of fresh air on this board with his incessant positivity and ramping...;-)

Bloody well done, England. Although we nearly blew it...phew.

Apparently EIA draws are forecast at 5.1 million barrels and hence, POO is basically yawning at the API crude draw numbers, even though the API consensus was a 3.5 million barrel draw. Gasoline stocks also fell 3 million barrels, which is positive. Demand side of the equation is still strong in the US.

Ford reported today that their gas guzzling pickup truck sales were up 10% month on month in June. ;-) Sign of things to come..

That's conservative guidance though, Shinfalls. I'm sure that we'll get a better sense for where we stand when the H1 update comes out in August, what with the new Magnus wells, the Alma workover and stabilised Kraken production. Also, new drilling at PM8/Seligi should be happening shortly. To me, the update could be the first of the 'true' positive news cycles for ENQ.

Of course, news regarding 1. Final AK commissioning 2. Alma/Galia workover outcome 3. 75% Magnus Acquisition 4. Quicker AK offloads (this one we can monitor) - would all be welcome positive updates.

And now we wait....

The 50 to 58K guidance is for ALL assets, including the 70.5% Kraken ownership..

Nope..

Squif - what's your investment thesis for Enquest then? If you're indeed really long in ENQ, why are you invested?

You don't
1. Trust the CEO
2. Trust their production numbers
3. Trust their financial management
4. Trust their balance sheet

I wouldn't invest in a company if I was convinced that they're up to no good fundamentally. Why are you?

Oh well Squif - question over whether or not Enquest survives??

With POO where it is and production over 50K BOPD, I can't see the reason for your pessimism, but that's your personality I suppose. ;-) You could sell and move into a share whether they report weekly to your hearts content and put yourself out of this daily misery with ENQ. BP may be good for starters, if you still want to be in oil.

I'm looking forward to the next few months when after the next set of operational updates, I'm confident Enq will break out of this trading range, as this where it is stuck.

To each their own, I suppose....

Best

Romaron,

I assume you made that assessment about Magnus being sickly based on April 2018 production figure and that couldn't further from reality.

Every year, for the past few years, Magnus has a month or two of lower production, but the average monthly production, annualised has been in the 11K to 13K BOPD range, ever since BP did the $300 million workover in 2013. This to me is a better yardstick than looking at one month's figure in isolation.

Cheers, MO. That's great info. We'd love it if a tanker gets there for Friday, as that would mean a production rate of circa 40K BOPD, as opposed to the 35K BOPD we saw in April. On average it's tracking closer to the 35K BOPD number in May/June, I'd suggest, given the offload rates.

We'll probably need DC4 to come online before production gets to the 50K BOPD plateau rate.