Member Info for epiphany121

MO and Chilts - Stena Sirita left Alma last night at 10 PM and has a current Draught of 12.3. Not a big change from the 11.3 draught before the visit (if I remember right as I didn't write it down) and if so, what can you extrapolate? However, a 14 hour load should indicate at least a 200K barrel load?

Morning Chilts and MO - Thanks for watching and spotting.

NH's AIS is now officially updated to state destination is AK and ETA is midnight tonight. So, a really slow crawl for the next few hours then. It's circa 13 days since the last tanker left and is a touch quicker than the last load..

Best all...

Thanks for watching and letting us know, MO. Given that Alma has been producing in the 1500 BOEPD range this year through APril and wouldn't gotten any better till the workover that started last month, is it safe to assume that this would be the first offload in quite a while from Alma?

I suppose we'd know how the workover has worked from either the next offload OR in the next update (H1) from Enquest.

Best all..

Good day MO et all ENQ'ers.

There are summer maintenance shutdowns planned by ENQ - I'm unsure if that includes AK, but we wouldn't expect another shutdown at around this time at AK, would we?

DD - this was news during the middle of last week. It's not consequential and has already been digested.

Chilts - Thanks for the detail about the Knutsen tankers and their charter to Teekay. With regards to the Teekay reference, is ENQ in anyway contracted to hire 'only' Teekay shuttles?

MO and Chilts,

I see Jasmine Knutsen, Karen Knutsen and Navion Oslo - all anchored in Rotterdam at this time. JK and KK have only recently arrived and NO has been around since the morning. And then there's Grena Knutsen in Wilhelmshaven at this time, since yesterday afternoon.

Grena maybe?

Lol..Jan. That was cracking.

Enjoy your holiday and who knows where ENQ would be by the time you're back. Leave the tanker watching to us now..;-)

MO,

Good watching. I had it on my watch-list and took my eyes off for a few minutes to do the call, and off she goes. Don't know where, and it'll be probably very optimistic to assume HK headed now to AK, but if confirmed, that's brilliant. I'm not holding out too much hope though.

In the mean-time, Oil took a leg lower after Trumpty threatens $505 billion tariffs on Chine (all imports)..;-)

Back to HK watching...;-)

Chilts - I noted this earlier today. Yes, due in Scapa at 22:00 on the 22nd, and needs to leave AK on the morning of 22nd - meaning it needs to leave for AK later today, iat the latest, if HK is indeed the shuttle for us.

I'm not trying to jump the gun yet, but if HK is indeed destined for AK, that will indeed look really good for how AK is currently operating. Fingers crossed.

I want to believe oil will go back up in the near term, but not finding enough reasons to think that this will happen. Just yesterday, even oil pumping Goldman Sachs have dialled back their views for an $80 Brent to back later in the year, after the US mid-terms and after the Iran sanctions kick in. There's demand uncertainty because of questions over China demand. Let's see though!!

We never know and never say never..oil may go down to 65 and ENQ may still yet to above 35p before the H1 update.

Squif - Yes, the unfortunate reality of these times, no doubt. An activist president who goes to any extent to please his ego and his mob. OIl price is yet another victim, an unfortunate side-effect of the trade war he's triggered as well as his obsession to keep it down.

For now. I'm sure that we have no doubts who's winning... :-(

According to CNBC - this is the reason why..

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/16/oil-falls-as-mnuchin-says-oil-buyers-may-get-iran-sanctions-waivers.html

Oil's getting hammered thus far today, and it has to be on the Reserves release rumour from Friday, plus god knows what not. I'll now be glad if it stay between the 65 to 80 range, till the November mid-term elections are over. That is the key driver for Trumpty and he's bulldozing his way to concessions from everyone he deals with, excluding Russia obviously..

MO,

As an additional input, there's a circa 9% interest accruing to the Mercuria pre-payment/loan (1 month USD Libor + 7%) and hence, the oil supply repayment ENQ needs to make to Mercuria will be higher than the $80 million pre-payment. It'll be in the circa $86 million region.

Best

Tim - yes, you're right. 5 mill barrels were hedged in H1 and 2.5 million barrels in H2. So, there should be higher net realisation in H2 than in H1, assuming oil stays above $70, which is where it has been for most of H1.

Cheers, Jan. This is a good point when you ultimately consider FCF and cash on hand available to ENQ. I'll also need to look into the AR to figure out how this would be handled/reflected. This was for the $100 mill prepayment in 2013/14 and Bumi had agreed to refund a chunk of this and both ENQ and CNE would get their respective share..

Morning Rom -

" Torture any financial figure long enough and it'll say what you want. Optimism/pessimism and forecasting are the variable factors that we cannot control." This I wholeheartedly agree with. :-)

I noted you're a LT holder and been through lots more ups and downs with ENQ over the years and met the CEO during the AGMs and that may (or not) give you more comfort in how you see ENQ being steered. I concur with your assessment that AB has taken on prudent risks with Magnus in agreeing to a 25% upfront stake only (with operatorship, albeit) and parked the remaining 75% for a later date with a view to assessing future oil prices, which seem to be co-operating at this time, Trump notwithstanding. AB will probably defer the Magnus decision to later in the year in order to give ENQ more time to assess how oil prices are trending and if the medium term price outlook changes in any way because of near term Chinese growth concerns and additional supply.

And also a thumbs-up for the pre-payment oil supply deal with Mercuria - it was a prudent liquidity enhancing measure locked in a with a decent $64 a barrel price ceiling.

Best

Fernan - I know this is pedantic, but in this instance the Magnus sale may be free cash flow from an accounting view point, but ENQ is 'forced' to use this 'FCF' to make repayments to BP from these proceeds. And the Magnus transaction only shows up as a provision in the balance sheet and not in the debt, and hence paying that down doesn't impact debt, it only reduces the provisions in the balance sheet.

In Mercuria's case, there's NO cash inflow in the first place. Net debt does go down though as 'repayments are made' from the oil supplied.