Member Info for epiphany121

Why would it?

Spot on, Chilts (and MO). NO's Destination was updated to AK a short while ago.

As MO stated, that's not ideal and needs to be backed by a good reason why, but we just won't know unfortunately.

HK has destination set to Glen Lyon. Not sure who the next candidate is anymore!!!

Cheers, HM. Fingers crossed then..

HHCHU - if you haven't heard from IR, there's nothing more we can say for real on this matter. Other than speculation and conjecture, you won't get anything better from this board...

Yes. Where? Why? How?

Lol..OK.

Chilts - your downside support for WTI in the 66.5 levels was solidly broken, and with all sort of product builds in the weekly stats, this doesn't bode well for Brent too. I hope Brent stays above the 70 mark, but the signs aren't looking too good.

KO - you should stop predicting daily price movements. Lol..;-) Nothing you say almost certainly pans out..

ENQ not at 37, Brent not just $1 off (it's now $2 off) and let's now wait an watch for the 16:30 bounce. ;-)

Yep MO, seen that as well.

The candidates now are Stena Natalita or one of the NO/Grena Knutsen sitting off Scheveningen..

HHChu,

Presumably, you're BUMI Armada shareholder and hence your interest in knowing about AK's final acceptance. I don't think anyone really knows at this time as to what exactly needs to happen before the final acceptance is agreed by Enquest. Everything that we discuss/assume is speculation and only Enquest management would know the criteria.

Try and send an email to Enquest IR and see what response you get!!!

Best

Morning Chilts - NO has made a start from Scheveningen a few minutes. Currently at around 10 Kts, but destination isn't updated yet. Let's see..

Cheers, MO. Any obvious Shuttle candidates that you can spot, for load #21?

Wednesday/Thursday this week should be 12/13 days since the last load and sounds like a reasonable day/s for the next load..

Bobbilicious - it's a good 300K BOPD lower than the weekly numbers from May were initially coming out at.

An EIA data backed take on how US production isn't at the 11 Mill BOPD level that the weekly EIA data points to...

Brilliant. Thanks, MO. Those offload stats do tell a tale, no doubt and can be correlated with the OGA production stats through May.

Morning Chilts - I do occasionally read the BUMI board messages per your link below, and they're in a similar boat as we are, I suppose - lots riding on AK to be signed-off for them. AK is quite the cash cow for us as well. But, we have additional assets that should step in H2 - Alma/Magnus/AK (these should be better in H2).

I'd now have to say that ENQ's H1 update will probably be middle of the road in terms of backward looking data. What the management says about H2, including workover results, will be the most meaningful detail that they can provide.

Best

It feels like MO is a bit sad about May's figures. ;-) Anyway, I trawled through the previous message on LSE and noted that Load 17 was 17 odd days and that pointed to a circa 30 kbopd rate in May, which is where we ended up in the OGA stats. Production rates have now stabilised at a higher rate in the circa 35 to 40K boepd range. We'll need to wait for a confirmation from the next couple of offloads. OGA stats are backward looking and serve as a good yardstick to assess offloads. Trying to make sense of these numbers with the offload stats - what seems to make most sense is that an offload is right around the 500K barrel figure - that's just my take.

Also, note that because of SVT issues in early May production from many of ENQ's wells in the North Sea were shut-in for a few days, and that lowered production stats as well. We don't need to panic just yet..Lol ;-)

MO,

Can you please share the 3 offload details prior to 16? I pulled the below from one of your messages last week. We know that Offload 20 could've been under 13 days, if NH had hooked up at 10 AM on the 24th as was originally scheduled. Assuming a 500K Barrels offload, AK must now be back in the circa 40k bopd production range, maybe a touch bit under, if at all.

13.2 Offload #17 (Amundsen Spirit) - Started: 8/6 16:00, left 9/6 22:00 (Duration 30 hours)
15.3 Offload #18 (Heather Knutsen) - Started: 25/6 06:30, left 26/6 08:00 (Duration 25.5 hours)
14.1 Offload #19 (Navion Oceania ) - Started: 10/7 10:00, left 11/7 12:00 (Duration 26 hours)
14.2 Offload #20 (Navion Hispania) - Started: 25/7 17:00, left 27/7 09:30 (Duration: 40.5 hours)

Best

MO and others - Here's the May 2018 OGA stats for Enquest.

Highlights - AK was weak in May 2018 - Average BOPD was 30K, down from 35K in April. MO, it would be good to cross-check with the ship loads during this period as well. Not a surprise that we didn't have the sign-off at the end of June then. But, signs from the recent offloads have been better and we hope that's a positive sign.

Magnus is ramping up nicely and it was producing at 14.6 KBOPD, after the new well in May and up from the maintenance related 7.5KBOPD in April.

Alma/Galia was still Anaemic, but that should change with the current workover. Average production from Jan to May should be around 54-55K BOPD, down from the 56K BOPD in the Jan-April period

Reporting Unit May 2018 May WI
ALBA 12108 969
ALMA 2180 1418
BROOM 1931 1217
CONRIE 107 63
CRATHES 3257 1629
DEVERON 1860 1841
DON SOUTH WEST 2424 1454
GADWALL 872 436
GALIA 469 305
GOOSANDER 1125 563
GROUSE 1183 592
HEATHER 3498 3498
KITTIWAKE
KRAKEN 21563 15202
KRAKEN NORTH 8043 5670
MAGNUS 14630 3658
MAGNUS SOUTH
MALLARD 1670 836
SCOLTY
THISTLE 2861 2832
WEST DON 205 161
YTHAN 912 547


Best...

@Chilts - I hope then that Brent stays above that trendline from July 2017, if only to prevent a technical breakdown. Is this the WTI 66 level you talked about yesterday (probably is lower than that if you're talking about a one year trendline). I'm unsure why there has been an impressive turnaround today - maybe the Iran war games news?

@Twalby - There are now a few doubting Thomas articles now pointing to excess Brent sloshing around in the oil markets, such at this one. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-02/growing-glut-of-high-quality-crude-signals-danger-for-oil-market?. This may well be the case, but if there is solid growth globally assuming a trade war between the US and China is averted, then this excess supply will certainly be absorbed, and $100 a barrel won't be hard to get to. We only need to look at the growth demand driven speculation of oil in 2007/2008 to see it isn't far-fetched.

@MO - I've keeping a regular eye on the OGA stats and May hasn't been updated yet. I'm sure you are as well, but if you do spot them, I've no doubt you'll post them ASAP. I'll try and do the same when we have them.

GLA..