Member Info for epiphany121

Draught updated to 12.1. Heading to Scapa.

Cheers, MO and HM.

Hey MO,

Yep, it is way too hot. I hear Thunderstorms are inbound late tomorrow/Saturday in the South-East. I do they hope they materialise, just like ENQ SP at 50p would in September..;-)

Please do keep us posted on your take of the offload volumes.

Best

It's OK to reflect on history and assess what happened in the past, but if you're an investor convinced that there's deep value in ENQ based on fundamental factors, the past is not necessarily reflective of future prospects.

We know what happened in 2017 - ENQ was still teetering on the edge after the debt restructuring in late 2016 and then the announcement came around in August 2017 that Kraken production targets were being cut, resulting in an overall miss in ENQ production targets. Have you considered that this or a time period shortly before this could've been a starting point for the decoupling of the correlation between Brent and ENQ SP? Maybe the 'market' did get wind of the fact that production wasn't ramping up as expected and started the SP adjustment accordingly orior to the news coming out in August. I'm not suggesting that the market is the best news/rumour discounting mechanism that there is, but it can be damn good. However, in some scenarios, it does create deep value opportunities and all that's needed is investors to take note and invest before the broader market re-rates. How else can you explain investors having 'multiple-baggers' in their investment portfolios?

The key point to note is that nothing happens in isolation. Patient investors will ultimately be rewarded. And thanks to some of the more informative members on this board, MO is a shining example, we can see how ENQ is positioned for the future, irrespective of what the short term SP movements suggest.

Best

Heardy - The disconnect is easy enough to explain, eh? The 'market' didn't like the May update - the production was still within the guided 50 to 58K range and no movement on net debt (TBH, was too much to expect a reduction in the Jan to April period). The SP fell from 45p to nearly 30p over the course of a few weeks and that says it all.

And as seasoned investors would know, once the broader market decides to take a negative view of a company, and that's could well be a ST view, then all 'positive' correlation to something else, like Brent, flies out of the window. This is what we've been dealing with since early June.

What do you think will happen once we have the H1 update, to back the Moody's upgrade? The market will take notice, and then the correlation will swing to the other end of the spectrum. That's what we need to wait for. The day to day and hour to hour swings is anything but noise till then.

Crikey...and then I tell myself I need to contend with the fact that on a public board with people's boredom/itchy fingers/short term mentality and that no two people hardly ever think alike, and it's best to take a back seat and watch all the ranting and raving as a neutral... ;-)

Can someone help me understand why you chaps think this should be going up everyday on no news and after the last update was viewed negatively by the collective 'market'?

The recent up move has been on very weak volume, and I wouldn't really give too much credence to low volume moves (in both directions). A positive H1 update is what's needed to move the SP in long term upward direction and break out of the 45p double top price.

These are broadly Oil price supportive.

Crude -6.15mm (-3mm exp, whisper -1mm)
Cushing -1.127mm (-900k exp)
Gasoline -2.328mm
Distillates -101k

Cheers, Chilts. You are quite the Sherlock, I can see. :-)

Cheers, Chilts. Does this show somewhere in MarineTraffic?

Morning MO - did you spot any repair ships during the 4 hours stop - Im not sure if they can even be seen though? I'd assume that there were some repairs done to NH and then sent on it's way. Although I'd suspect an ENQ cynic like good ol' Squif would almost certainly disagree ;-) LOL...

Morning KO - yes, saw that when I checked first thing today. Since the Orkney Arrivals list still has NH coming in at 10 AM on the 27th, your stated scenario is looking most likely. It looks like a relatively short fix to the NH, and AS was coming in to AK, just in case the fix took longer to address.

MO - sadly, your Stallion scenario isn't quite panning out. ;-) I must confess, we couldn't care less, could we?

Brent is just over 74, but who knows what EIA (and Trumpty) would bring to the table today. At least EIA's general direction can be predicted; no chance of doing so with Trumpty. It could be another price rant OR a trade war escalation OR Iran escalation - rule nothing out.

Now - where's that damn rain?.. ;-)

In the meantime, HK has started to make a move out of Scapa - however, based on what MO has spotted with NH coming in to Scapa on the 27th, HK isn't likely to head back to AK I'd wager.

Going to MacDuff and not Aberdeen. So, that should cut the journey time down to AK a bit, if indeed NH is to head back to AK tomorrow.

MO - As you suggested, it looks like Heather is the most likely one now, given her proximity to AK from Scapa. And HK's been around at Scapa since circa 3 AM yesterday.

Grena is right next to Enquest Producer at this time and AIS says headed to MacDuff. GK could indeed could make a quick turn North and head up to AK.

Fingers crossed..

If I was a better, I'd suggest a late afternoon/early evening hookup - oh, don't we all love last minute surprises???..;-)

It looks like NH's captain is letting off some steam from the slow crawl over the last 30 hours, and taking NH for a 'quick spin'....

Morning MO,

Under a Nautical mile now for NH to hook up with AK. That makes it 13 days now, yes?

Assuming a 500K load - a steady extraction now of 40K BOPD. Hopefully, we can verify tomorrow after the offload completes.

Best

not anymore....apparently. The price swings are maddening, but the market is trying to find an equilibrium price, driven by the trade war shenanigans/potential supply disruption/Trump's tweets/demand growth...There's not an easy answer here, I'm afraid...

Erm, Squif - how on earth are MO and Chilts are expcted to know what Alma and Malaysia is producing at this time? Did they tell you that they're either A. Clairvoyants or B. Company Insiders - as these may be the only ones who'd know, certainly B with more certainty than A?