RE: Saudi Arabia18 Apr 2020 17:38
I think Saudi bought major stakes in some of the biggest oil Companies just before the near 10m barrel oil supply cut was announced. This points to them thinking the 10m will be enough, although I must admit I had my doubts as to them actually believing it would work at the time. BUT another major point no-one knows the answer to is how much oil will disappear due to Companies going bust, or closing down wells until the price is high enough. Frankly with WTI last week plumbing the $17 mark (astonishing), and any major rise looking like being a month or so away (maybe WTI will get back to $30?, and Brent $35?), still way too low for many shale oil Co's I should think investors will be pulling the plug on hundreds if not thousands of oil Companies World wide. Especially shale oil Co's in the USA. Maybe we will lose over 10m barrels of production World wide? If so with the known cuts we would be over 20m, possibly even more than the World demand. Also let's not forget China is getting back to work, looks like Germany and the USA will be following quite soon. This situation is very hard to measure. There is even the possibility that in 4 months time there won't be enough oil and maybe Brent will be at $80!!! Take your best guess!
All IMHO.