Member Info for Elsol

Itaconix Launches Biobased Functional Additives for Decorative Paints :

https://coatings.specialchem.com/news/product-news/itaconix-biobased-functional-additives-decorative-paints-000221458

WOW very surprised. Good to John. Brilliant exposure on mainstream Sky business news

SP. But forecast gross profits are looking above average for chem industry (premium) so all we need is enough volume at this profit level ( ie plant capacity utilisation needs to go up which looks highly probable given current trajectory of underlying growth). Funny thing is if tomorrow we re acquired this one marginal customer we lost; ITX investors would buy the stock back up to say 200p-250p; it doesn't make intuitive or logical sense that this marginal contract is worth that uplift in market cap. Its optical only at revenue comfort level.

IMO that's what's going on here and very much short term ism investment horizons for some of the investor base. The valuation defies logic of :

1. Prior professional fund raise around 250p over a year ago offset by worst case we are 1 year behind EBITDA delivery; net net zero change

2. Ability to fill plant more aggressively as price takers in H2 if we need or want to

3. A few diversification channels are now at cusp of conversion and probability of market access is lower than 1 year ago for sure

4. Management confidence on upside new client opps at higher profit potential

5. Free cash war chest that now seem in worst case tev projecton that will not be spent in capex duplicate plant in next 12 months

6. Capacity to expand quicker if we suddenly get demand.

7. Valuation Multiples now look odd after considering Free cash

Hi Paladin - there is likely to be something more important in the background that is needing some external comms management and SP excitement restraint but this is my best guess currently. Just imagine even a 100p target price reversion, what % relative value uplift is that and management clearly fear premature SP inflation that then has to be commented on in a formal RNS and early out of the bag pressure.

Chardude - its well oversold due to a few day trader sellers and will come back since its so cheap today. ITX is a solid business and never looked so good in the medium term as per John S CEO - it will rebound for sure in coming months with news on upside developments.

Thanks AJP - sounds from call today there will be a near term RNS for any new diversification client wins so lets await that soon. Cheers

So my final question re: issuing RNS for new 1st diversification wins --> mgt expect to issue one in next few months - great! I expect this is a "leather" based channel since its always been one of the first in the list for textual updates and also in the last RNS majors on this.

The leather area seems to be the closest major diversification channel 24/25/26 so for John to articulate in such a granular fashion I'm guessing orders are now very close indeed and Im suspecting was a key trade-off consideration for the loss of lower profitability detergent customer. He keeps waving his tan shoes everywhere but lets see the stilettos now!

John said that negotiations are still ongoing with lost customer which is interesting and a potential upside that could easily come back.

Agreed SI, looks like they traded off one weak profit contract in pursuit of upsides elsewhere. Will be good to see later today during management meet me call with Q &A

Ok shall we make it 1pm then instead

Hi JM, how about 12 noon tomorrow. Monday?

SI perhaps ITX will become investable again for you pre Jan 2025? I agree its volatile of late but it doesn't necessarily mean one cannot make a handsome return well above FTSE index in the rest of 2024.

Look SNG only have ONE asset - its not like AZN that has an RNS every other day almost - so slowly slowly, newsflows; its our turn soon for something big....it works after all! SNG moves slowly but COULD be back v. soon. Happy weekend team

My submitted question for monday;

The recent Canaccord Brokers report contains major capex 24E-26E. Presumably this is the expectation for a new European manufacturing facility even given the recent customer volume reduction announced in previous weeks. Please comment whether this is a strategic decision to encourage further European centric customer switching to existing ITX product ingredients or is this to ensure sufficient global plant capacity for hypothetical plant capacity demands from new diversification product wins?

The UK HSA seem to acknowledge that the results are significant re; PP otherwise why the poster???

However, Josh we now know SNG has an awakened pulse with possibly a new collaborative PP scientific partner and we await further insight / intel. on how this will play out and connect with other strategic dots...that's why some investors bagged a few more shares making sense and may pay out big time beyond your end of day perspective ('paper losses' that never crystallize)!

Just noticed ITX is now very active in highlighting sustainability/ECO/CO2/global warning/decarbonising etc issues over last 11-12 months of so - much more than I would have anticipated so lets see how that replays into the ne wweb site theme!

Further info. to add to the mix here: Guess who is a primary LinkedIn acquaintance of the UK HSA's chief scientific officer?

Rick Bright

Former Director of the Biomedical Advanced R&D Authority of Federal Government of the United States