Member Info for Elsol

Dear Bob - if you don't mind me calling this out to all and sundry - you appear to be unusually confident with your "scenario" crystal ball gazing especially given significant challenges / harsh scrutiny from the usual suspects on this BB, almost as if an insider. Especially since there are so many permutation outcomes from the current situation. I do hope you are on target and you have some latent reliable intel. or divine heavenly guidance.

Hi Surfie, I did not recommend you buy or sell I just pasted some of the current ITX marcoms to break the boredom- the share is in 'hold' mode - even the automatic trading bots cannot raise any volumes even by big drops on a few auto share sales being sold to entice sellers - everyone is now waiting for the news to come for H1 and H2 as per SI who has doubled back down on his 50/50 strategy reinvestment plan.

Https://www.linkedin.com/posts/itaconix-corporation_sustainablechemistry-saferchemistry-biobasedproducts-activity-7211367569012707329-jTUG?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_android

Thordon,

Sorry to hear of your recent loss.

Steve

Https://www.linkedin.com/posts/itaconix-corporation_sustainablechemistry-biobasedproducts-greenchemistry-activity-7211754557146587138-gtHB?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_android

Interesting one today. I reposted it.

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/itaconix-corporation_greenchemistry-saferchemistry-biobasedproducts-activity-7212151474846396416-6FNa?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_android

Sometimes "no news is good news" - maybe a confidential pivoting strategy in play that may have many external party moving parts to deliver (we have seen some hints of this during H1) - recently SNG have said they intend to RNS accounts + update this week so perhaps the big reveal is coming and only a few days to go.

Sorry typo 25 Dec 25!

Is this a "one flew over the cuckoos nest" mental strategy. Is that all that rocks your boat yawn! They are obviously completely hacked off with irate PIs calling to see how the weather is today in Soton.

Hi SI, yes, Thundergod (nice name BTW) did jump into my shoes but he/she is free to comment as a long term quiet (rumbling) investor in the background.

1/ Re: Cashflow => Good point (my bad) but I guess CF breakeven therefore is midway between FY25 and FY26 so that makes it 25 Dec 24 between friends then if you don't mind me taking a few days off you to make it a festive transition that we can celebrate. In any case, it matters not if the business is growing so weakly in your doomsday meltdown scenario there will be plenty of surplus planned capex (in brokers report not now needed - say $3m FY 24/25) that is un-invested and hence we are good to survive even longer into the future without cash calls by the company.

2/ Re: Loss in value statement (your bad). Revenue does not translate directly to "value" - I assumed the said lost customer (c.50% revenue) would attract a significant relative c.50% discount in value terms because it was clearly either a borderline loss making or marginally profitable contract hence an appropriate hair-cut is in order. If you eject one 'bad/problematic' customer and clean up your otherwise nicely growing portfolio then that could be an okay strategy as long as you can replace it with more profitable customers as per management and Broker expectation (e.g. H2 24/H1 25). So, I still uphold that the share price fall is well over-cooked and will revert once the full landscape of this interesting tactical decision surrounding the said customer becomes clear to shareholders (e.g. there was a reason to kick out the customer a few months ago and that is not totally transparent to shareholders at this point in time and the reason for your opportunistic arguments are to try to crash the share price to your stated 'buy in' target of 110p after you sold at c 190p and said you were not investing again in FY 24 (which of course I totally respect). But it's your choice to wait and risk being out of the stock if it reverts back to 250p+ with favorable news of new wins and / or positive trading updates in H2 (paints/leather). However, if you had 100% confidence in your doomsday scenario and bleak share value prediction during the whole of FY24 you would not waste your time on here and go do some golfing instead as you kind of suggested at the outset. The fact you are majorly circling suggests you are desperate to buy back in at a slightly lower price point but you may shoot yourself in the foot when and if good news flows happen in H2 FY24 (which you may likely fear is a reasonably probable outcome as I do).

BTW the large 10m raise was about ensuring business resilience AND being able to pursue ALL market opportunities and being fully opportunistic if needed to change strategy and focus. Makes total sense to me not sure why others are confused. The business has not enjoyed this flexibility to max. Its assets until now so rest assured they will be pulling all the stops out in the rest of 2024 and 2025.

Look I agree we have had an unexpected knock back but the SP has taken a massive hit perhaps overly so given the value of said customer prob. 25 % net worth of enterprise value but SP has lost x2 that value. However we are still only one year off cashflow positive if you believe the brokers and we are diversifying cuatomer base quickly and Europe and leather and poss. Paints. So for me it's a hold and add if I can get some more free cash. We have say 7k GBP cash on BS so enough to sustain to 2026 easily. DYOR

AJP. thx. How does that equate to 2023??

My view currently, is you need to be in to win it. Ill wait for rerate as or seems more probable than a future meltdown disaster scenario that SI is peddling. As per Broker concensus viewing all evidence from company to date

Hi Elsol

3 straight forward questions:

1. What is your prediction for H1 income? Answer => It's a pretty irrelevant metric due to the short-term pivot to new revs/volumes with higher profits for full year 24 and then platform for 2025 - you have the full year fcst stated and also I expect that to be exceeded (as normal for the company).

2. Why is the current price 150p and falling? SP is volatile within a band as you know but you are scaring existing shareholders to sell for sure with an overdue focus on H1 revenues for some reason - you know what you are doing.

3. Why is expressing a bearish sentiment considered as trolling? Its trolling when you are watching this company like a hawk every day as a non current investor that said you were going to wait until 2025 to reinvest or did you forget that? Stay quiet and see where the SP goes without your adverse impact is my suggestion and don't sell fear across other shareholders when the company is already very over sold as you know.

Trolling again I see SI to try to buy back in 'via fear' at an un-warranted low share price that has already over-reacted to the customer rejection. As a past BUT CURRENTLY announced non - ITX shareholder who said the company is completely "un-investable" until H1 2025 you do seem to be very active on this board solely for the above reason and others need to be aware of your motives here.

I am pasting below key analysis from recent ITX Broker report - Alex Brooks | Analyst | Canaccord Genuity Ltd (UK) | abrooks@cgf.com | 44.20.7523.8379 Salvatore Verdoliva | Analyst | Canaccord Genuity Ltd (UK) | sverdoliva@cgf.com | 44.20.7523.8377

15 April 2024

Valuation: retaining 325p and BUY rating

Our target continues to be based on two arguments: the multiples applicable to a

mid-cap chemicals company, and the value which we believe is applicable to Itaconix's

differentiated market position and which would be relevant to an industrial third party.

At our 325p target the stock would trade at 5.1x/3.7x 2025E/26E EV/revenue, which we

believe would be highly attractive to an industrial buyer looking at markets with gross

margins in the hundreds of millions of dollars annually.

Outlook: still robust

Excluding the major North American detergent merchandizing customer growth from other

customers in 2024E is expected to be c.70%. We expect this growth to be across Itaconix's end

markets, in cleaning, hygiene, beauty, and in various new industrial applications. We also expect growth to continue in 2025E at above 50% y/y.

PY 2023: Whilst year-end cash & investments of $10.0mn (CGe $9.3mn) is

strong on better EBITDA, better working capital and lower capex. Detail in the results

shows revenue in Europe up 85% y/y, highlighting the strength of new client wins

in recent months, and continued growth in gross margin in the core Performance

Ingredients division (38%, up from 31% in 2022). We are making only minor changes

to our forecasts, which continue to reflect the reduction in 2024 sales to an existing

customer announced on 2 April, but which see a rapid return to growth going into 2025.

We remain BUYers with an unchanged target of 325p.

The reason the ITX Board chose to eject the US customer is from a position of strength and was done for short/medium profitability enhancement reasons. I very, very much doubt even you could argue that the economic value of said 1 single customer makes up some c.100p in the share price fall from pre-announcement (e.g. £13m GBP) being one of the least profitable customers for the business pre-2024.

Tommy good list but you forgot the key piece of the jigsaw- UK HSA scientific collaboration in Q1 2024 that probably links strongly "under wraps " to UK IPPS pandemic preparedness evaluation and company deliberately side stepping the association for some interesting reason...

may be in future we all resort to ****ney rhyming slang

The system deleted part of my word S****y. It rhymes with "panky!" :-) Crazy world we live in today in 2024 that a genuine friendly word can be subject to north korean style censorship!

if i recall correctly, we are due a new s****y, compelling web site soon...bring it on john s and bill mcclure!

I suspect as with any company "plans are only plans" with many outside influencing factors and unexpected curve balls that may need reactionary mgt. actions and nuanced strategy plan Bs to best navigate a way forwards - so unless you want a month by month 'overkill' commentary to say the marathon is still being run then okay but seems a tad boring to repeat "we have not won the race yet but still in it!" As TommyD19 said - in under 3 weeks you will all have a clear view on what's being going on (perhaps some of it highly 'insider confidential' that was under news silence for many months), the challenges and emerging opportunities and whether we are still very much afloat to get SNG001 to market with or without a BP or not as the case maybe - hopefully for former