Member Info for elrico

Aspex,

Sorry, mate, but we are reading different RNSs. OPTI retain 46-48% of PBX; the former is based on the take up of the £2.5m of new shares.

I don't buy the "heavily discounted cash raise" because if OPTI needed £2.5m (illustrations purposes), it would provide c£6m of cash at the bank, with roughly 7.5m new OPTI shares at 34p including expenses. Even then, OPTI would only have 95.3m shares in issue. I guess OPTI would have the option to wait and raise at a higher price, thus reducing the overhaul dilution to the register.

lordloadsoflolly,

Apologies. I had it in my head but neglected to explain its contents appropriately. :)

When SBTX was spun out of OPTI, it was a non-core asset, an investment opportunity that did not fit within the group strategy. It was essentially a cash drain on OPTI because it was not generating revenues. ProBiotix is a core asset, profitable at EBITDA . It was a brilliant piece of business by SOH.

A 46% holding in ProBiotix is more valuable than SBTX's 42% holding at the time of the IPO. This also distorts the valuations if one attempts to compare like for like (SBTX v PBX). I could be wrong (again), but I expect OPTI to have a more material correction ex-divi than with SBTX. However, this is likely to be short-lived. Even so, any potential drop is compensated with the PBX in-specie.

ProBiotix produced an EBITDA profit of £195k, a 122% increase in 2020 (£88k) with total sales of £1.1m (2020: £821k), up 34%. Income for 2020 included a £250k milestone payment from the USA Pharma. Subject to the take up of the open offer, OPTI will retain between 46-48% of ProBiotix.

SBTX comparison is not a good one because SBTX was still developing its IP, and had no consumer studies, etc. ProBiotix is further down the commercial route at this stage. That said, even though OPTI SP has been beaten up, it is still likely to fall short term on the ex-divi, mainly because unlike SBTX, ProBiotix is a core part of the larger group, and there will be a cash impact and IP transfer on the balance sheet.

oleric,

Indeed, we can check profiles. You rarely post without mentioning me by name, and more often than I care to read, there is a tone of ridicule. And I guess you feel you think it is endearing, or I am a version of Chuck Rose's character. I am well used to slurs, insults, and twisting what I say. This is why I ignored your earlier attempt.

I will offer the following as my last comment on the topic, and probably to you, before exorcising my right to deploy the filter option, if only to save myself time in the future.

I think the point you are missing, which was the actual point I was attempting to make but failed to get across in your case, was quite simply SBTX will be limited to what can be disclosed in the RNS about the H1 results. So if you check the period they cover, you should be able to conclude there will be limited sales of AxisBiotix in terms of revenues. Stuart may expand during the IMC presentation. If you read my warning as unfavourable, then that is your interpretation, and you have every right to read it as you wish. Either way, the interim report will not define the company period.

I believe some people are perhaps setting themselves up for disappointment if they expect SBTX to update the sales forecast of £1.2 as estimated in the broker report. However, it is doubtful the company would abandon prudence and integrity with minimal data to glean over a brief period. Hence my comment regarding H2 would be more likely the time we get more data. If there is a material uplift in repeat subscriptions over and above the broker forecast, SBTX would be duty-bound to tell the market. A USA based hub would be a significant event, my other point.

oleric

Oh!

Sure, Dobbies.

ii sent me a message instructing me to choose which account outside of my ISA I wished to put my in-specie POLB shares? Although they cited "restricted shares are not tradeable inside my ISA", I had to choose.

The POLB shares were restricted because they were subject to a lock-in period, just as ProBiotix shares will. In addition, they are restricted because they do not exist until OPTI produce them. ii seemed to be somewhat confused. Hence, I want to share my experience if anyone here is unfamiliar with protocol.

I know ORPH had discussions with HMRC, and therefore, I assume OPTI will have a similar conversation to ensure investors do not pay CGT if OPTI shares are held inside an ISA wrapper.

I wouldn't be expecting too much on the financial front. It will be the usual frugal control over the purse strings. There is a slim to no chance of accurate data from AxisBiotix until H2. Most of the period was about sorting teething/logistic issues.

Influencers have barely started their influence campaigns. I think the time to get excited (AxisBiotix) is when the USA site has its own logistic hub and is not shipped from Holland. That will be an excellent sign indeed.

The best we can hope for is a hint on Croda/Sederma momentum, but again, unlikely.

A couple of things to note if your online broker is ii.

1: ProBiotix shares will be subject to a 9-month lock-in, which means they are classed as restricted, and no value will be attributed to them until OPTI unlocks them.

2: If your OPTI shares are in an ISA/SIPP, not allow your broker to put them outside the ISA/SIPP wrapper. They may say they have undertaken HMRC advice. What they mean is they have referred to a handbook and not checked what provisions the company has agreed with HMRC. I wasted two weeks on this matter with ii, who was useless. However, I did get my gotcha moment in the end! I did not have the same issue with iWeb; they understood the situation better than ii.

3: There is a strong likelihood OPTI will drop on the ex divi because this always happens. We have seen it with SBTX, ORPH has seen it with POLB, but to be fair, ORPH has other mitigating issues, not least the perception tit is a pure COVID-19 play.

I am a little surprised there has not been more buy pressure ahead of the ex divi date. This suggests retail investors do not have a huge desire to be lock-in. A message I put to SOH. This will become a growing issue for ProBiotix as the month's roll by unless there is solid, encouraging newsflow. POLB has halved since its IPO. I have quite a few, so it is a little concerning, even though they are free.

Just a few things to ponder.

AquaeSulis01,

TBC, I, or we as in partner and me in crime, Mike Cain cannot advocate investment strategies without paying the FCA considerable sums to use, buy, sell or hold. So instead, we try to furnish investors, prospective and likeminded, with research material or at least save them some time in their busy lives.

I will not speak for Mike, a fellow OPTI investor. However, I will not be taking up an offer to add to my in-specie in PBX. I may have been tempted had the listing been on another platform, like AIM (for all its faults, it is more suited to liquidity) or another junior market. As it is, I am not impressed to find I will be lock-in again, as this will almost certainly result in another lemming-cliff-edge moment, similarly to what POLB investors are currently experiencing.

I can see the logic to the lock-in, but it is IMHO flawed logic. I think there is too much poor advice being offered by so-called experts. Just allow the market to function and stop trying to manipulate it.

I am not sure I want PBX without evidence it will be taken seriously as an ingredient in dairy or other food areas in the battle to reduce bad cholesterol. LP-LDL has been around for a few years now, and even with the chairman's links to Arla, he has not been able to influence inroads. This is likely to have been SOH's thinking because SOH is an excellent strategist. Sadly, he is well ahead of his time, and big corps are yet to catch up with him. I think LP-LDL will be incorporated in dairy via the Canadian partnership, but it takes time.

A favourable update on the US pharma's plans to incorporate LP-LDL, a pharma-grade product, would be very welcome. Is this likely? Something like this would be needed ahead of the lock-in period ends.

oleric,

TBF to you, I created the confusion. I could have been clearer. But instead, in my senile mind, I assumed the RNS comment spoke for itself.

My partner has penned an excellent overview as he sees OPTI today. But, like me, he remains invested and no less frustrated. He doesn't frequent these forums, so he avoids the noise and emotion with a clearer head. Perhaps I can learn something of this tactic. :)

https://twitter.com/LEMMINGINVESTOR/status/1505202941015252992

My partner is planning to pick up the OPTI batton this weekend. I will add a few comments to it in an effort to explain the inspecie. Also, we will explain why it is prudent for SOH to raise additional funds for ProBiotix and how this benefits OPTI. However, there is a temporary downside.

Oleric, Check the sell data for Monday. I do not believe a single member sold OPTI on the back of my musings. This is because most are intelligent, free-thinking investors capable of making their minds up. Moreover, the comms I had from some were clear; they understood my POV and also knew me well enough to know it was challenging to voice concerns as I did.

It would be best not to concern yourself with 3rd part transactions, especially mine. I get plenty wrong and do not pretend otherwise. I confessed as much in my last OPTI musing.

As it happens, I added 15,000 OPTI shares to my holding on Monday. TW referred to this in his bearcast. I also confessed the same to SOH. :)

OPTI is a fantastic company with a big future in the food and beverage industries and probably will for many decades to come. But, Lord knows we need a massive revamp of the industry. We need to change our ways from the **** injected into our bodies' ecosystem. The microbiome is the route this I am convinced of. But, I am realistic, it will take time, and some of us will look elsewhere to improve our pensions in the interim. This is because I interviewed several members of the board, which helped many HNWI understand the patience required as the many pieces of the corporate jigsaw was pieced together.

Have a good weekend.

I had favourable comms with SOH after my musing. There was a lot he disagreed with. But, opinions are opinions without facts to fall back on. OPTI is not easy to understand. It is a complex investment case, and I believe I have had a more significant part to play than TW in assisting investors, and potential investors understand the company.

If money were not an issue for "me", I would be buying OPTI, not selling. However, I am fast approaching the twilight years, so I must shuffle funds from time to time. But in doing so, I believe I need to be honest and transparent, which causes me problems most people do not appreciate. Thankfully, TW did and tried to convey this to his subscribers, for which I am grateful.

Most of my members also understand I must try to be impartial, factual, and refrain from all temptation to pull the wool over their eyes. Unfortunately, some of the comments from non-members do not fully understand the thin line I spread. It is disappointing to read snide remarks from people admire as intellects talk out of their seat presently, especially given they will never be seated in my seat.

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Nick,

Speaking from experience with ORPH/POLB, the ProBiotix shares will likely be classed as restricted shares until any such lock-in period has lapsed. If the in-specie is via an asset already in an ISA, your in-specie will also be tucked away in the same ISA/SIPP.

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Dr Emma Wedgeworth|Derm
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drsambunting.com/pages/dr-emma-wedgeworth

Her AxisBiotix video has been viewed 1788 times since 4 March.

Yes. Cathal will be sitting on the right. :)

Has anyone informed sikhthetech, aka stt1 house arrest, was declared over months ago? It seems a shame to waste so much precious life baiting investors on two platforms every day because they disagree with him.

I hear he has even taken to banning people from his own thread without so much a transgression. stt1 has taken cancel culture to another level. Preemptive strikes are his tactic; he fears someone may say something negative about his beloved TYL. Fragile soul, it seems.

We get it, sikhthetech; you are far more astute than us mere mortals; we are not worthy.

Now, will you please leave us to our foolish mistakes? It is the best way to learn.

Thank you.

Paid influencer, a Dr no less.

https://www.instagram.com/tv/CasbxZ9AVM0/?utm_medium=share_sheet

Letitrun,

It appears from your simplistic overview you have no access to what I wrote. I have not sold OPTI; I said I will hold until the next RNS. Who knows, it could be the ticket, and I remain invested, as my children remain and several good friends.

There are other opportunities for me, and I will explore them. But, as I said, I have already made one mistake by thinking the grass is greener elsewhere.

Just because I write about companies of interest and invest in some, it does not mean I cannot change my mind because I have a following; the world does not work that way. Therefore, I should never reevaluate each and change my view. If I make another mistake, then fine, I can live with it, but I have given a considered view.

There is a silver lining. SOH has had a chat with TW after my editorial, so the PR continues.

AquaeSulis01,

Thanks, it may not have been your intention, but that cheered me up after another silly email from TW today. :)

I won't be updating, but Mike may well. He has asked if he can. He is much quicker to the point and knows the company very well. He is invested. And as far as I know, will remain invested.