Member Info for elrico

Aqua,

I spoke to Cath over a year ago at the request of another investor with interest in Psoriatic Arthritis.

Q: Is AxisBiotix able to help with psoriatic arthritis?

A: The blend is designed to help with the inflammation associated with psoriasis. Since psoriatic arthritis is also an inflammatory condition, then yes, possibly it might help psoriatic arthritis.

“What’s needed here if sp is to turn around are real influencers.”

Nope, not accurate. You seem to be assuming;
1: The existing influence strategy will fail. You have not given the strategy time and allowed your impatience and limited understanding of how the strategy will play out
2: Ignore the option to use marketing spend, as per the interview
3: Ignore all other pillars, including Croda/Sederma
4: Ignore the distributions partners currently under negotiations for the EU and other markets
5: AO Business

IMHO the stock level was likely due to the production run timetable Winclove has with their other clients. Had SBTX not stocked up with Axis, they were open to being criticised for not building enough inventory to meet orders.

Odysseus07

I think you are underestimating the logistics required to interview, go through the selection process, and then appoint the staff, which have contracts and notices to work out. Perhaps they should, but they did not, and maybe the costs and logistics involved in getting the staff required would have resulted in an unacceptable delay to what was, after all, a soft launch on world psoriasis day.

I covered this in some details weeks ago, so I guess it crossed my mind. :)

Comparing a B2B (OPTI) with a D2C is strange. With the benefit of hindsight. The SM/Marketing/sales team are now in place. I think they have a long term approach, not five months. I could understand the frustration if Axis was 17-months ago with little sales progress. I bet we would not be having this discussion if the SP was north of 60p.

The initial PR centred around the NPF, which included podcasts. In hindsight, they accept they need to replicate with US consumers, not British.

I am sure the site will come under the stewardship of the marketing team. I guess your genuine concerns will be addressed in due course. Just give them a chance, at least.

https://lemminginvestor.substack.com/p/skinbiotherapeutics-plc-903

Rick,

I answered. You did not like the answer.

As for your prediction, the share will dive lower - I am immune to such prediction because I see them every day on various BBs. They are like broken clocks. I do not concern myself with mystic meg forecasts from anyone. I only concern myself with my strategy. I am not competing with you, the market, or anyone, for that matter. If SBTX goes lower, and it can, then I will consider myself lucky for the opportunity.

What did someone say about my sofa? :)

You are probably not aware I invested since at the IPO and took advantage of the COVID panic. In other words, I have seen it all before. It may be your desire for the shares to go lower - if you do not mind, I will not concern myself.

Is someone wagging an accusing finger at me?

I'm under the bed with the lights off sucking my thumb! :)

"Very weak response by SA when asked about sales in the current 6 months - I think this will dive lower."

LOL - I believe Stuart is being frugal with shareholders' funds, so to waste it on Mystic Meg and ignore AIM regs and the NOMAD to soothe your angst is a no vote from me. :)

Stuart did give us a clue as to the uplift in the subscription on the back of the initial SM posts, which increased the subscription by 335%. I am confident this will improve over the coming weeks and months.

There is also an option to boost subscriptions, which appears to have escaped all but one investor's attention.

Allow the company to put the building blocks in place and give them until June. There is too much focus on a probiotic. SBTX is not a one-trick pony; there are 12 Sederma VIPs, oral care news pending, and more news on the possible distribution partners for AxisBiotix.

Getting bent out of shape over a two-month sales figure is frankly embarrassing.

The NPF Psoriasis figure of 8 million came from The NSF to Stuart. So I guess the figure is related to the USA market and not what is on the NSF database.

rebarm,

I was the first to discuss the potentially awkward situation Croda appeared to be creating with its partnership with the use of SkinBiotix lysate. For sure, it is a direct competitor to Sederma Matrixl, which prompted Croda to spend $65m in 1995 to acquire.

Without wishing to speculate too much; I believe Croda has adopted a strategy of inviting a limited number of VIPs (12) to test the lysate in new and or existing cosmetic formulations, before allowing access via the wider market as an insurance policy, of sorts.

The natural order for the next phase for both Croda and SBTX is...how do we protect our product/IP?

I am not going to speculate too much, but, it seems sensible for SBTX to spin out SkinBiotix fairly quickly to protect the rest of the company from a cheeky bid. Remember, SBTX were astute enough to write their own insurance policy into the Croda contract. This allows them to use the lysate and slightly above cost. IMHO, we are very early into the realms of M&A speculation but must remain a distinct possibility.

I have not discussed this with Stuart, these are my own opinions.

Chief,

I am enjoying the discussion. But, I think I have spotted a glaring issue with your premise and the use of the Google tool.

3150 appears to be the top-line figure with a consistent churn rate. This rate assumes AxisBiotix will not increase subscriptions over a set period. I think heads would roll if SBTX did not get a return rate on new staff and influence activity.

The key figure is straightforward. For every 100 new subscriptions, the company is retaining 69% of these. OK, It is far too early to bank this as an expected long term trend. Still, the early indication is the retention rate closely mirrors the study figures.

As for the forecast miss, we have to accept SA is on the naughty step. IMHO, he got sucked into agreeing with putting a forecast out. He has never been a figurehead of a PLC before and relies more than most on Cenkos.

Looking a few months down the road - Croda/Sederma will launch new and or reformulated cosmetic products through global household names with lysate IP by the year-end and no cash outlay; SBTX counts the cash. Don't forget; this event significantly derisks SBTX. SA gave us an indicator of when we could expect news from Sedermas clients in the interview I did yesterday.

I am sorry to say, the evidence from my reading of some of the comments on this forum leaves me to believe some peeps are deeply confused about the period in question and consuming the forecast period. They are not the same. Moreover, systems are now in place, and sales for AxisBiotix should get a boost from low levels, but patience is needed. It is not as though AxisBiotix is the be-all and end-all for the company.

Skid,

PBX will not have a value in your portfolio because they will not exist, even if the IPO is 20p. The shares will not exist for 9-months. You will know how many you have been given, but that is about it. Best to forget about them and plan for adding post-lock-in, (assuming you will want to continue to hold) because they could be lower than the IPO, like POLB. Let's face it, how many IPOs over the past 24 months have increased in value? I have a few pennies ready for POLB being unlocked in April. I expect the frustrated retail punters to run for the cliff. I'll be rubbing my hands.

I believe PBX is expected to be c20p and will be between 3:1 and 2:1 ratio. The ratio is dependent on the take up of the placing of £2.5m in shares.

AxisBiotix is an OTC probiotic, not a medicine or drug.

I am not suggesting the 29th is any more significant than a coincidence, but, could we get a clue from Croda as to how Sederma/SBTX progressing during the webinar to Croda investors?

Email circular today.

Croda International Plc will host a seminar for investors and analysts on accelerating growth in its Consumer Care sector next Tuesday 29th March at 14.30 (BST).

The event will focus on how Consumer Care has evolved significantly in recent years to become a highly differentiated sector comprising four business segments, each with leading market positions in fast-growth niches.

Farris,

It hasn't. I think I neglected to confirm it was Tuesday at 11. He is not going to communicate during a close period. Any Qs email them to me at lemminginvestor**********

No naughty pictures of pets and bashed in packages, thank you. :)

Mattminch,

Your case before the jury: " It had Instructions on dosage and how to take it, but it is a food supplement, what my friend asked is a supplement for what. The front of the box states '4 Billion Bacteria from 4 different strains specially selected and blended."

This juror asks:
1: Where did your friend purchase AxisBiotix? (This should have his first clue what the probiotic was intended for).
2: Assuming, like my orders, they arrived in a box, snug inside another box with just enough dietary fibre to see its way through my letterbox. Inside said boxes were cunning designed sachets (or as I assumed without the need to read the dose or instructions - to be the intended dose. Thank god because I am easily confused!).
3: Indeed, more care is needed, especially for night deliveries. I think a torch fitted with batteries should be included, so the customer does not feel compelled to switch the lights on while energy costs are as high as they are.

All good fun.

Rebarb,

I am with you, Sir, 100%.

Far too much consideration is given to shareholders, with little to no regard to the safe delivery on an inanimate object. Don't they have feelings too! If a small corporate-like Amazon can deliver similar products promptly, safely, in jiffy-bag, secured in a box with paper padding...

Also, too much consideration for the environment. Mor packaging, and none of this BS, needs to fit through a standard letterbox. No, it must arrive in a box 1000 x the mass OF THE PRODUCT for safe delivery, and so what if the customer is not in. Return again and again, not blue-bin or neighbours. You never know who will be watching, and lord knows we can't trust neighbours - they get up to all sorts behind those twitchy curtains.

I am curious about the lack of "no instruction leaflet, no instructions." Did your friend look inside the delivery package? I am guessing so because you mentioned " some limited signs of benefit." I wonder if your friend had bought something altogether different? It will be an easy mistake to make if there is no evidence of identifying literature. I do hope he survives his terrible ordeal.

https://twitter.com/LEMMINGINVESTOR/status/1506903785460969475

Cliostock,

Ref OPTI history. For many years investors were always playing the guessing game at H1/H2, and mostly, they were too optimistic. The net result, OPTI, got hammered.

beinthelead,

I wasn't aware I was neutral. As an investor, I am very much bullish. You are correct; SBTX/Broker has set the expectations.

AquaeSulis01,

I agree it will be highly significant if SBTX reiterates the broker forecast of £1.2m for FY. This is not in doubt. My point is that expectations beyond this in the interim statement only set us up for disappointment for my already stated reasons.

I have previously reported SBTX has been providing lysate through Croda for Sederma clients. Croda may contribute some revenues, but these are unlikely to cover my Trooper sessions of a weekend. :)

I hope there will be a detailed update on commercial strategy, mainly the USA venture. Positive news on this front could be hugely significant.

I think we are blessed for future primers if we sit tight and do not overthink or juice up expectations. However, I think we will do well to avoid repeating OPTI history.

I fear the NOMAD trampling all over Stuart's natural bullish tone, and retail PI's read too much into this.