Member Info for elrico

Cliostock,

I sincerely doubt my troll has quoted me correctly. I remember Oleric informing this forum that I was selling SBTX when the opposite was true. The truth is a stranger to this fellow, as is my understanding of why he wishes to sully my reputation. Perhaps he is one of those investors that finds it difficult to own one's mistakes and seeks to pass the blame.

Additionally, attempts to learn how the data is collated, etc., were made. Implied trust was not automatic.

From: Support
Subject: Store Leads Feedback from
Date: 22 June 2022 at 18:02:30 BST
To: 4.co.uk
Reply-To: Support

Hey,

Our algorithm generates monthly sales based on a number of factors including:

- Alexa or Common Crawl centrality and page rank
- Employee counts
- Communication options (email, phone, chat, social media)
- Use of dropshipping or print-on-demand applications

We've trained a machine learning model to make estimates based on the factors above as well as others. We've also trained the algorithm using sales data from public financial disclosures and non-public stores that have willingly disclosed their sales estimates directly to us. Feel free to read more on this here.

The estimated sales are meant as a ballpark figure and we are in the process of switching some of the key parts of our algorithm from Alexa to SemRush, which appears to be more accurate (so our algorithm will continue to get better over time).

So far the feedback about our estimated sales figure has been that we are pretty conservative and usually estimate lower than what the store is actually doing.

Please let me know if you have any more questions or thoughts at all. Always happy to chat over the phone or video chat.

-- Ammar CEO

In another exchange...
Our software crawls the internet looking for eCommerce stores and from there we collect a bunch of data on them.
It's often used by sales & marketing folks who need to find good leads, but it can also often be used for research.
Here's a demo of how it works: https://storeleads.app/demo

I have been contacted by an investor about the data I was posting via my site until recently.

Questions put to me, which I think are more than reasonable.

Q: Where was I obtaining the data?
A: https://storeleads.app/reports/shopify

Q: Why would I not provide a link at the time?
A: It is a subscription site, which could be expensive, subject to what one wants to use the site for. At the time, I had no idea how accurate the data was or if it could be relied upon. I was of a mind to protect prospective subscribers from wasting their money until I was confident the data could be relied upon. As it happens, it appears to be the right call.

Q: If you were not confident in the data, why did you produce it rather than wait for official data from the company?
A: My role as a researcher/writer is to maintain a degree of research and interest in the Companies I feature.

On each occasion I wrote about the algorithm, I issued clear caveats. For example, while I was at the time reasonably confident there was value in the Store leads app, which was partly based on more useful data from the OPTI store, which appears closer to its sales than the SBTX store.

I think I was very clear in my warnings;
I must stress: that these figures are not from SkinBioTherapeutics!

The data has been sampled from a subscription service designed to gather sales data from various online baskets, such as Shopify, Amazon, etc. At this stage, I am unwilling to provide readers with the source without material confidence in its accuracy.

Imagine what could have happened if I had shared the Store Leads link widely. I am sure a lot of investors would have risked adding for FOMO. The data looked compelling.

PITCH
Find trading signals before the stock prices update.

—— Or ——

Find a new brand before it goes big.

Looking for unique insights on ecommerce stores and platforms? Our data can help you make better informed investment decisions and allow you to react before the rest of the market.

https://storeleads.app/alternative-data

Martin,

In SOH's interview in July, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RcbrO-HvJ8s&t=896s he referenced product delays, notably AlfaSigma. SOH is always reluctant to go into any detail on Company specifics. I am trusting my old grey matter here, but I think SOH said there is an H2-weighted revenue lean this year due to several factors, including delayed products expected to be launched as the world returns to some normality.

Mol has evidenced this with links to six new prebiotic products. SOH also indicated that AlfaSigma had progressed more than he expected. Of course, this is now more relevant to PBX and less so for OPTI.

The obvious question concerns for investors: Will the deficit of £280K surpass the £500k you reference? Just as crucial, will margin be negatively impacted as we see in retail and IP producers like ITX?

Stuart discusses the complexities around such a M&A proposal in some detail in the interview, which also addresses a number of issues around some investors concerns they have for funding into 2023, as well as why the board decided to adopt a larger multinational deal rather than take the easy win that would have seen them achieve there original forecast.

I think it’s worth noting the sacrifice Stuart has made in this regard. Had he taken the deals on the table he would almost certainly be looking at banking more shares options, but he didn’t.

Ok, he’s a Newcastle fan, and some of us know how mad they are. However, his options are not insignificant.

Remember. Q4 we should have price sensitive news from Croda before Christmas.

https://youtu.be/eZsW0tVnpCs

Phat,

Why the eagerness to prove what most think of your "research." Have you not considered the resources a "multinational" has that SBTX has not? Or if AxisBiotix fits within a product portfolio?

Blinkered!

Q&A with Richard Bernstein https://lemminginvestor.substack.com/

https://lemminginvestor.substack.com/p/poolbeg-pharma-plc-da1

Thomas,

It is not a question I would ever ask because it would be a minefield for any member of the SBTX board to answer without ruffling partnerships.

I approached the question another way. I asked SBTX if the scientific data and validation provided the lysate with an advantage over products that could not provide any scientific data to support anti-ageing claims. Yes, subject to advertising standards, any product containing the SkinBiotix lysate as an active ingredient has the potential to make specific claims supporting anti-ageing reduction claims. In an earlier podcast with Stuart, I asked specifically if the SkinBiotix lysate allowed for specific claims supporting anti-ageing, and he believed so.

There are a couple of valuable links investors should find fascinating from an FDA and UK ASA guidance on cosmetics claims.

https://www.fda.gov/cosmetics/cosmetic-products/wrinkle-treatments-and-other-anti-aging-products
https://www.asa.org.uk/news/a-compact-guide-to-cosmetic-ad-claims.html

We are far wiser now, as you will discover once you have watched the interview I recorded with the CEO, Stuart Ashman, on Friday, 2 September 2022. Let us be clear. I had grave concerns when I read through the trading update because, on the face of it, the £75,000 revenues from AxisBiotix looked as though Stuart had misled investors by pumping the subscription figures with a £1.2 million forecast, only for it to be pulled within a couple of weeks of reiterating it was achievable by June 2022. What I did not know at the time, but do now, is the forecast was based mainly on several distribution deals that contained a mix of upfront and revenues from sales. However, the board made a difficult decision, a gamble some investors may argue, to adopt a different strategy from smaller regional distributors in the USA, China, South America, and Asia for a global distributor(s). The interview goes covers this and more in great detail.

It is important to note that AxisBiotix Ps has always been referred to as a D2C proposition. However, this has changed. The Company has ambitions of a B2B, with a parallel D2C channel to supplement revenues and reduce cash burn while the B2B channels build. Anyone paying attention will recognise parallel channels are challenging. For example, OptiBiotix Health Plc (AIM: OPTI) GoFigure brand was prevented from selling its chocolate shake option for a year or so because H&B wanted exclusivity for the agreed territory.

In short, it was easy for investors to conclude they had been deceived, and the subscriptions were grossly inflated. However, in reality, poor communications via RNS had set a bad vibe that should have been more positive if you accepted the risks associated with delays and dealing with multinationals.

I have been critical of some investors not reading the occasional RNS, or even beyond the first paragraph, and acting at first glance. It is not a reflection of anyone in particular; it is a general observation based on communications and comments posted on forums.

Investors and markets do not respect uncertainty.
https://lemminginvestor.substack.com/p/skinbiotherapeutics-plc-9fc

https://youtu.be/eZsW0tVnpCs

Aqua,

Exactly me reading of the tea leaves. It is like I said in the preamble to the interview. The board had a choice. Take the easy win and bag an upfront payment plus MOQ sales, an easy win, or take a punt based on discussions with more significant partners. We need to remember the whole board has considerable skin in the game. I know you will understand my view, but some clearly do not.

Alan,

Wow. I am almost lost for words. In an earlier post, you stopped short of accusing the board and the NOMAD of deception, an uninvestable trigger if ever there was one. Now, you add to an already hefty investment. Have you been smoking the weed? :)

Alan,

Essentially, you and your private investors suggest that Stuart, the board, and the NOMAD collude to deceive investors. Either that or you / all are unsophisticated investors. Which is it?

Given what you have just said - what do you imagine scientific board members are thinking? Should they be seeking to oust the CEO? If what you and your private investors believe is valid, they would act in concert to preserve their creation.

Moz,

POLB business is not set up to develop anything to phase III. Even if it was, it would need far more cash in the bank sooner than anticipated. I discuss the key strategy in detail here. https://lemminginvestor.substack.com/p/poolbeg-pharma-plc-da1

Friedman,

There are instructions on all my THG products containing OPTI IP. The problem I have is I can't read the print even with my glasses on. You are right; the packaging is poor, which is odd because successful brands always have premium quality packaging.

I have no problem resealing any of the packages.

Ref H&B
They are limited to shelf space. I have seen examples you speak of in most H&B stores. However, I have also seen examples of more strategic shelf planning that I would hope would optimise sales for SlimExpert products. But, again, I guess this will be limited due to most stores' relatively small retail space.

I don't believe SlimExpert is expensive. Less so if you use the neverending promo offers. However, SlimBiome is supposed to be the differentiator to all other weight-management products and thus should carry a premium to convey this.

New products are needed urgently, lest sales become stale. Freshen up, and the sales should continue because it promotes change within the same brand or loses consumers to new alternative brands when the consumer gets tired of the same limited options within the range.

Keep up, fella! :)

That’s exactly what I was implying. OPTI had c80 agreement across the supply chain. How many are generating recurring revenues? It’s very difficult to manage all those agreement with a handful of staff.

Mad,

Investors are angry because a lot of confusion has been created. Now we have a clearer picture of events, PI need to make their mind up. Do they believe and trust the board or not?

I try to clarify the situation https://lemminginvestor.substack.com/p/skinbiotherapeutics-plc-9fc

I’ll get a more detail during the interview after hours.

Farris,

I know the answer. It is 12-VIP, which represents c65% of Sederma's revenues. The remainder of Sederma's 12,000 clients is provided with the lysate at a later stage. I can't recall when, for sure, perhaps in 2023.

Agreed, Bubs, it's a typo which should not get passed the NOMAD. 12 VIPs is a tad different from 12,000 VIPs.

No, Moll.

That was not the point I was making.