Member Info for elrico

Bel,

The only mystery regarding the royalty is the size of the "double-digit" and the "premium royalty" for the enhanced version of the lysate.

As for hunting for retail end products with lysate, we may never know for sure unless we are given specific info on this. But I am hopeful we will eventually receive a list of cosmetic companies.

It is worth noting BB-Biont was launched last March (I am not suggesting it has anything to do with the lysate, but I would be astonished if SkinBiotix was not involved). Leaving this aside, for now, a year has passed since the launch of BBB, and despite my best efforts, I have not identified retail products with BBB inside. I have known about BBB since March 2022.

I have also seen science papers/claims that excited me at the time. However, I have nothing to back any hunch I may have at this stage.

Apply logic to this and tell me where you are with it.

“Gardeners must be held in high regard, indeed!”

Lord of the Rings :)

Clio,

I know from my discussions with Stuart that Croda appears to provide limited information to him. For example, he says he has not had a VIP list. This isn't easy to reconcile at this stage, especially given a brief commercial meeting in January. I strongly suspect Stuart has far more knowledge of events than he provides to us, which is rightly the case. Stuart is the big man at SBTX, but his boss is the CEO of Croda, as far as the collaboration goes. We would do well to accept this and remember it as an awkward consequence of doing business with a global mother.

It is frustrating for investors, but it is how business is conducted.

Aqua,

Croda had only just launched BB-BIONT as an ingredient with worldwide promotional literature. It remains to be seen if the same is in a branded product. Therefore, the main purpose of my mentioning the new ingredient has partly been to demonstrate the direction of travel for Croda, the promo machine in motion, and the fact there was not a whiff of this anywhere to be seen until Croda launched it.

As I said, I have no clue if SBTX's lysate or SkinBiotix platform has anything to do with the new ingredient. It is easy to draw the conclusion it is because of the qualities of the lysate. However, that would be a foolish assumption without firm evidence.

If nothing else, it's a discussion that helps us get off the circular discussion we have had since the placing. :)

Hi Clio,

My view is a very simple one. Croda & Sederma are essentially custodians of the SkiBiotix platform and the lysate. Scale-up and enhancements have been discussed so I won't review them again.

I understand your fear that Croda could be stringing a minnow-like SBTX along; this would damage a solid collaborative relationship. Croda has publicly expressed the importance of the SkinBiotix platform to its commercial ambitions. Your concerns is a genuine for many because of the debacle around SweetBiotix. Is Croda doing what six or so multinationals were doing with OPTI? It is natural for the mind to wander along those lines of thought. The difference with Croda is the investment in a dedicated production plant and bespoke vats, which are not cheap.

Could Croda bid for the SkinBiotix platform? Yes, indeed, they could purchase SBTX lock-stock. They have a strong history of buying and building bolt-ons.

Croda news has been scant, indeed very frustrating. If you look through their RNSs, they are consistent. They are very secretive about anything related to ingredients, applications, etc. Indeed, I doubt we will ever see SkinBiotix on the label of any product because it will almost certainly be inside a new trademark.

Have a gander at BB-Biont. It is a new product launched by Croda last year. I have asked Croda, Sederma and Stuart about SBTX involvement. I may as well tried to discuss football history with a bitter blue. In other words, it was a waste of time, yet, it seems plain to me.

To be clear, I am NOT suggesting BB-Biont has our lysate as the intel inside. However, it is a distinct possibility. The obvious question that squashes this notion is why we have not been told because Croda controls the narrative because they protect SBTX IP and their clients, which they obviously take seriously.

Hi Bel,

I wish I had a five spot for every PM I have had about the proposed acquisition - lamenting how long it's taking! We only learned of it in December. We have been told it is at an early stage.

I have been probing contacts involved in a series of acquisitions, some small, some exceptionally large. I have learned a lot about the process. We are in the third month since it was mentioned without any indication of a timeline, such as when/if Skin IP have been backed into the products—Fiscal DD, purchase price, head of terms, etc.

I have previously suggested that it is my view the proposed acquisition is much further down the road than the December RNS suggested - the placing was the biggest clue; I have mentioned others. I have publicly stated why this is my view and a host of caveats to cover my blushes. Far more experience people have indicated that even agreed final heads of terms can take three-plus months from them being submitted to the lawyers because there is a process which can be very detailed. Moreover, we know lawyers do not run the tiptoes.

Some peeps have hoped for Jan, Feb, Mar; If I were the seller, I would ensure it is completed in the next tax year.

Clearly, you are attempting to trade around the fringes; this has definitely impacted what you have been posting since the placing. Investors have picked up on this and have drawn their own conclusions, rightly or not.

Hi Bel,

I think we are making progress through discussion. As you know, bacteria behave differently subject to volumes, and as we know, enhancements were discovered on scale-up from 200-600 litres. We also learned the plan to increase the vat size to 20k was crucial and hoped, if not expected, the enhancements would be replicated. This proved to be the case for the first 20k batch. We do not know what these enhancements are, but I do know there are clues from a range of papers I have seen on the Croda site, which are posted periodically and then removed; I assume, as they are revised.

Enhancement could be a range of the following;
Improved barrier
Improved UV protection
Antiageing
Woundcare
Pot reduction

These are just a few examples. The caveat is neither SkinBiotix technology nor lysate is mentioned, nor any other identifying technology or product. My assumption is these science papers are SBTX related. But, of course, a detractor could argue Croda has been working with a rival corp, but this flies in the face of their investment and stated goals and the importance Croda puts on the SBTX partnership.

For all we know, Sederma clients could be preparing product launches. This would be very sensitive for commercial reasons in a highly competitive field.

Ref your holding.
I have no interest in your size or strategy. However, I can see why some investors were irked. You came across as someone that could harm the SP and appeared to boast the same and do so again with a warning you still have 60% suggesting you can take the SP down further. I am NOT suggesting this was your intent, but it is clear it has been read this way.

I have had subs suggest you aim to take the SP below 16p, where YOU EXPECTED the SP post placing; somewhat surprised flippers did not take it under 16p. The suggestion is that you sold, missing the rise and now spend all your time planting seeds of negativity in the hope green investor sell. It is a cunning conspiracy! :)

It is easy to get carried away with this type of talk. But the reality is just £20k shaved 4% off the SP. That is the price of poor volume on AIM. I believe volume will be such shortly that you will have no problem selling your remaining 60%.

I wish you good fortune, as it is difficult enough beating the MMs and the market without competing with BB conspiracies.

First of all, Bel, publishing the full contact details of a CEO on an open forum is not cricket. Very poor form! You know Stuart will be peppered with emails now, a destructive!

As to the content of the email.

The email is over two years old, well before the production line and the 20k litre vat were built and tested. It reads to me Stuart was assuring you both the production line and 20k litre vat were on time. You seem to be implying commercial launch with Croda is delayed.

"The new potential claims will not slow Croda down at all. The validation will run concurrently with the scale up and plant build."

Now we know the 20k litre saw the enhancements to the lysate; it naturally follows revised scientific papers for Sederma will be required because these are part of the sales literature put to Sederma's 12k clients, designed to demonstrate the difference to all existing skincare products.

What Stuart said was accurate. You seem to forget Sederma's role with its clients and the work it is doing with them. There's more than one timeline; ultimately, the one that matters is Sederma's clients launching products with a version of the lysate.

Clio,

Ref the proposed acquisition. You will know from my article posted in December I made reference to a possible two targets (I could have speculated on a couple more); one of them had an alert specific to shareholding, which, along with other clues Stuart spoke to, fitted nicely (legally) to shareholder registration. I had previously discovered a founding director had passed some years ago, and his shares were transferred to his wife. The timing suggests to me at least two things;

1: I have narrowed the Company down to one
2: The change in the transfer of ownership suggests (right or wrong) the legal structure is in preparation for the completion of the acquisition. (I accept this could be a coincidence that it is more than four years in the making).

Assuming I have not got this wrong, the Company will transform SBTX. It will indeed be highly accretive in terms of a superb portfolio of complementary skincare products, which are very well established, and highly accretive in cash generation.

Frankly, I am astonished to learn that only one other investor appears to have performed the same level of research on this as I. We are aligned 100%.

The only reason I am not making a song and dance about this is that it could fall through at the final hurdle, as many do hence why I am not discussing it more openly.

As I said in today's update, I understand investors' frustration, but I truly believe the SBTX board will be vindicated in their change in strategy.

I hope this helps.

Clio,

Why is the TU make or break for you? What do you expect the TU to contain? IMHO, the TU is not important at this juncture; Croda and a successful acquisition are key. If the company's house alert for one of the possible targets is any clue to go by, I would suggest it is much further down the road than we have been led to believe.

Aqua,

I agree with your first para and most of the second.

OPTI has also announced many manufacturing agreements spanning the globe, but rarely have investors been updated on;
TATA India SlimBiome\LPLDL
Maxum Foods - Oz
Agrapur - Canada, USA, Mexico
Knightons - UK
Morelys -UK
CII - USA
And I cannot recall the name of a French Corp, except it has 19 manufacturing bases worldwide, including the UK and China.

The story's moral...update the market, or it will conclude for itself.

Mol,

I am not seeking to make a poor example of your earlier comments on Winclove. But I think you will agree OPTI is further behind in updating investors on manufacturing agreements and distribution partnerships if it was up to investors' desires for news. They are not price sensitive until product launch, and even that is questionable, perhaps a reach, subject to partner forecasts.

Mol,

The original agreement with Winclove required an RNS because it confirmed a commercial partner, therefor it was deemed price sensitive. A mutual continuation of the status quo is not.

OPTI has never announced it has not progressed commercially with dozens of its partners. These have never been deemed price sensitive. Do you understand my POV?

Toying,

Stop it you ultra-right-wing-agitators! :)

Irony and self-awareness are consumed in a vortex where communism dressed as freedom of speech is seen as the answer to a debate. Wow!

Investors have a right to challenge and question the validity of inflammatory comments. Differences of opinion need to be explored, not closed down. This will come across as hypocritical, given I am on record saying the old and tired historical rearview negatives posted all week for the umpteenth time are tiresome only because they are. I do not have the desire to continue to waste my time defending and repeating my own waffle.

The void unfilled with Company news makes some investors more nervous than others, and this is being played out now with threats of cancel culture because someone is offended. Try walking in my shoes. The abuse I get almost daily from people that do not know me is deemed acceptable by some, but you don't see me crying about it. Of course, I'm not a millennial, so I guess that helps.

It also seems OK to infer that a PLC CEO has committed market abuse on an open forum. God forbid anyone dares challenge this notion!

Victim culture awards!

Toyin,

It is quite astonishing. Simple logic seems to have been sucked into a vortex. The vast majority of Bel's posts are highly critical. His previously stated "I'm still bullish" makes no logical sense. If I found myself talking as he does, I would not be an investor. This is not me saying sell; I am merely asking a question why remain bullish? Rhetorical!

Most reasonable investors have no issue with a critique of the board or its strategy; there is a lot to be learned from these exchanges. However, the regurgitated nature and frequency of the same critiques have some of us wondering about the motive. Now we have a new twist, which implies both the NOMAD and the board have committed market manipulation. If that implied allegation is not enough, we now have a new twist from within Croda if we are to believe this utter twaddle.

I'm done. It's the exit stage left for me.

Good luck.

Anon,

Your post illustrates your level of competence when it comes to doing research into investments; the same applies to those that voted for you. Had you performed the very basics, like using the links other investors and I have provided for convenience, you should have concluded a great many of the editorials I provide, which take many hours to produce, have sponsors, which means they are open source after a short period of time. Moreover, the podcasts are hosted on YouTube, which, unless I am mistaken, is open source. Closed shop indeed! Well defined!!

Sadly, people like you are plentiful; all you do is leach off other people's labour and seek to destroy, not build. I guess you freely provide your labour FOC for the good of humanity. I applaud you for this - take a bow, Sir.

My reward shackles and tomatoes from idiots such as you. I do hope it inflated your ego a tad, as I would loath to think you got no benefit from your crass post, which is littered with errors and insults to me and the BOD of SBTX, which are not deserving, but you will care little for this fact. We live in a sad period when people like you think you can hurl insults and denigrate people you have never met. People like you are a blight on humanity!

My rant over.
You are confined to the same filter bin as the other trolls that offer nothing to this forum.

POLB has several years of cash runway. This will be extended significantly with an out-license partnership. IMHO likely significantly greater than the current market cap. “Blockbuster” is a clue. Why? https://lemminginvestor.substack.com/

TU by end of March, unless my old grey has let me down.

Al,

At the risk of repeating myself again. All of your points have been put to Stuart in various podcasts and Q&A. You have access to these, so I’m perplexed why you keep beating the same drum and buy stock with such reservations. Something doesn’t add up to my simple mind.

Maybe Stuart thinks he has addressed them, hence ignoring your email?

Like I implied, I may not have done my job properly in pushing on specifics, and or you may not be happy with the response, or you just don’t recall.

If I can be pointed. If I was as concerned as you I’d be a seller!

Clio,

I am less forgiving than I used to be. I’ve learned a lot from my interviews with SOH. I don’t plan on repeating the same mistakes. That said, I understand why a CEO will avoid specific questions because they are cloaked in NDA. So, Croda does frustrate me at times. But, we need to remember Croda are custodians of SkinBiotix and the Lysate, which means they are protective, and so must SBTX. It’s frustrating for us investors, especially when we are eager for news so we can move on from tired old rear view mirror optics.

Let’s get March out of the way.

Garnacho! :)

Clio,

With respect, they have all been discussed at various stages. They may not have been answered to your satisfaction, or understanding, but they have been put to Stuart by me.

May be this is my fault. If so, I apologise, but I did try. That said, I really do not have a desire to go over old ground the next opportunity Stuart give me. I think it will be more product for us all if we look foreword. I firmly believe the next news will provide us will this opportunity, especially if I’m right about the target. And if we have news thereafter from Croda, all six points will be confined to history. Just my opinion.

Stuart and Manprit have bigger goals, and a history of buy and build. Let’s see what cunning plan they have, and let’s judge them on this rather than a difficult period most Companies have suffered with.