Member Info for elir71

There was a significant non market maker limit buy order 326,589 @ 3.56p at opening auction today.

down a bit from Friday, which probably means at least some has been filled ... so the market makers havent been able to replenish their inventories.

I suspect only JBER have anything of significance, so I would expect that once 3.7p resistance is overcome then we'd go up to thr 4p+ range reasonably quickly. Two hefty buys this morning of equal size both well above exchange market size.

Perhaps EU should consider a rare earths marketing board (operating somewhat in equivalence of the UK's Milk Marketing Board until the 80s ?

What this does show is that some state involvement in industry (as per China) does make for a more resilient economy, so we really do need to move on from the sleepwalk that we did into globalisation. In reality, this simply exported poor working conditions and environmental standards an ultimate race to the bottom, for whom the benefits of cheap imports would only be of transient benefit to the newly unemployed or employed in non productive job western European workforce / consumer. Ultimately, the trade deficit would have caught up with us all.

... I'd add it would be wiser if it was 70%+ of ANY component / subassembly of an EU manufactured car.

Then we'd have to look at imports ? If rules stymie the competitiveness of EU or European made cars then it is a shot in the foot isnt it ?

"It appears a previous version of our RNS template was used - the figure should be 25.04% as was stated in our RNS of 6 Feb 2026 (EGM results). The updated figure will be used in future releases."

I'm happy to be stood corrected on any of this, I think there was a typo on an ALBA RNS, with respect to %age so I believe the correct number is 25.04% inferring 70,748,482 shares.

It's clear that the shares are held in quite sticky hands

Of those who have made their holdings public (either voluntarily or for regulatory reasons)

ALBA 66,915,207 23.68%

KADUPUL 21,044,969 7.45%

Hugh MacKay 9,179,872 3.25%

Antoinne Molenaar 8,524,463 3.02%

David Elir Evans 4,550,488 1.61%

Paul Scanlon 3,295,324 1.17%

Lucky 3,148,334 1.11%

Paul Mackie 2,618,892 0.93%

REDACTED 2,000,000 0.71%

Stefan Bernstein 1,711,666 0.61%

Jace 1,025,000 0.36%

Mark Rachovides 1,015,577 0.36%

George Frangeskides 927,778 0.33%

Lars Brunner 317,308 0.11%

Mark Austin 291,666 0.10%

Andrew Panteli 291,666 0.10%

Mike Nott 277,777 0.10% (at least)

Silvertree Partners LLP 41,666 0.01%

SUM 127,177,653 45.01%

There's a new presentation on Motzfeldt on the alba investor hub. It's illustrative and worth a few minutes of your time.

I dont think the second transaction has gone through yet. I did post the companies house notifications (for Elemental) on here or telegram group. It suggests ALBA are taking ownership of Elemental shares as opposed to "the project",

I am happy to be corrected on this

Would be better after some strong results, dont think they are cash strapped at present

I agree with the clear path idea. What I would point out, is that from a geological point of view Curtis Rooks knows the ground there as well as anyone can.

The unknown is the financing. Does ALBA intend to hold until production ? DFS ? Will it apply for Strategic Project Status.

George is not one for lightly declaring a timeline, but he has stated that he hopes to start mine development in 18 months. There may be alternatives to dilutive equity finance, but it is an unknown at this stage of the game. At present, what we can rely upon is the work done to date and that Greenlandic rare earths are on the geopolitical radar.

As Ive said before, I think there may be a speculative bubble that precedes and weeds any long term big developments in Greenland and I dont think the big players have shown their hands yet

Shareholding 1: 501 ORDINARY shares held as at the date of this confirmation

statement

Name: BERWICK CAPITAL LIMITED

Shareholding 2: 255 ORDINARY shares held as at the date of this confirmation

statement

Name: ALBA MINERAL RESOURCES PLC

Shareholding 3: 244 ORDINARY shares held as at the date of this confirmation

statement

Name: CASS (FZE)

Confirmation statement just filed at companies house

@MisterPositive, yes, I think we may see a bit of a Greenland speculative bubble at some point this year. Some underexplored resources may become overvalued, so timing an exit is as important as picking a stock. Not hitting the "peak" is not failure, the aim is to make a profit and everyone's risk reward profile is going to be different.

True about the NPV of processing being higher than the mining op, however witg a vertically integrated business such as this , where security of other supply of feedstock is dubious, then the chain is only as strong as the weakest link. Where profit is attributed to is largely an accounting decision on the internal price of concentrate. The decision would probably be largely driven by tax implications

I believe Elemental Rare Metals Ltd , Motzfeldt, Exploration Licence Holders, have recently filed documents indicating that ALBA now are noted as an entity with significant control of between 25% and 50% and that Cass Fze (UAE based company) is no longer an entity with significant control. You should satisfy yourselves of the accuracy of this statement by verifying this information on companies house website for free.

Strong non market maker support at 3.42p this morning

I speculate that they have reached the vicinity of the payshoot

A non market maker buy limit order was on the order book this morning for 356,870 shares at 3.44p

that provides a significant (But not unbreachable) support above and beyond market makers

The north american institution, is the only party to the 2p warrants to have had the number of warrants available to conduct the recent exercises.

At the time of the placing, then they would have been granted :-

19,230,769 warrants

they have to date exercised

11,923,075 warrants

they have at the time of writing

7,307,694 warrants left unexercised. which when exercised, the resulting shares is about 2.6% of the issued shares

The significance of this is that it is below the 3% TR1 reporting threshold, and since they seem keen to preserve their anonymity, then they could exercise the remaining warrants without having to disclose their position. 0.5% of the issued shares could be forward sold by them, without declaration.

As for the warrants exercised in January and admitted on 2nd February and from looking at past disposal patterns. I *estimate* that they did these disposals

out of the 3,269,231 shares created

03 FEB 26 1,378,242 were sold to the market

09 FEB 26 1,581,988 were sold to the market

culmative total 2,960,230

leaving a mere 309,001 to be sold (i.e. a fairly insignificant sum)

Given the positioning of market maker JBER (Joh. Berenberg, Gossler & Co. KG) then I suspect that they hold many of these shares in inventory to be sold to private investors.

So I speculate :-

1. The North American Institution will, in the near future exercise their remaining warrants 7,307,694 in number, which will result in a very brief (days if that) temporary retraction.

2. The reason for the surprisingly dull market reaction to the spectacularly good news at the end of last year (non dilutive funding, exploitation licence) was due to the supply of shares from the autumnal exercises of the same warrant class

3. When the remaining (2p warrants, 7,307,694) are exercised then the supply of shares to the market will probably dry up and once they are sold into the market then I believe there will be few "technical barriers" to define resistance and the share price will rise to a level that is more reflective of the fundamental value, which I have previously written at length about.

4. There are other holders of the 2p warrants, namely the BOD, other existing shareholders including ALBA. To my knowledge none have exercised and all have proven to be committed to be long term shareholders, so I doubt they would exercise at this juncture, given the relatively long expiry date.

5. The 3.75p warrants with a 5p accelerator clause are few in number 9,000,000 and I dont think they will form a strong resistance.

Please do not construe this as investment advice : I speculate that the next exercise of warrants totalling 7,307,694 in the near future should trigger the final buying opportunity at share prices of this order of magnitude.

@Jeremiah

The sp has retracted due to the supply of shares to the market from the recently exercised warrants. The fundamentals have not changed. Immediately prior to the exercise the sp was gaining momentum. I fully expect that to resume at least until more 2p warrants are exercised. Ive narrowed down the holdings of tge exercising party and am very confident in the number of unexercised warrants they hold. I fully expect them to exercise such warrants in the coming weeks or months. I shall publish this when I have time.

With respect to the graphite resource, I speculate that the unexplored areas of the licence will contain more, and since the conditions of the deposits creation are the same, I expect them to have similar physical and chemical propertys. As such, I believe there is scope to, with further exploration, increase the resource substantially which would serve to elevate the productive capacity to fully serve both European and Noth American industrial demand. As for a second plant in North America, it would be a relatively risk free copy and paste job. In light of recent events, it would be my preference to locate it in Canada.

Im quite happy to sell produce to the US, however I would not be happy for them to set up some warpped market that prevents us realising the full value.

My view is the preferred end result is a merger of 100% offtake with Morrow