Member Info for elir71

@Prentice thank you for that information, unwelcome as bad news is. ... another wasted month

The pendants are from mined gold level 5 as opposed to the waste tips whence the rounds came. I believe a strategic error is to over prioritise activities which have a more distal return rather than projects with a more proximal potential for return. The "decay curve" of the long term history indicates that few placings have resulted in appreciation of shareholder value. Much of this is not the executives fault, but it is where the buck stops.

The main anticipated events to look forward to are

1. Blasting and the results of the assays on the processed ore from the rises planned at Llechfraith level 5 Clogau St Davids. This is pretty much the main event as it largely determies imo the future of the North Wales gold project.

2. Finsbro drilling (completed) core analyses, again more for structure than grade

3. Horse Hill planning. Its reinstatement, would provide ALBA with a source of revenue, and or loan repayment stream. The cessation at HH resulted in a £2m impairment. I believe HH should have delivered some documents to Surrey on the 15th of Dec 25

4. Motzfeldt - some lab results on cores from this year's fieldwork ... possibly a strategic project application, which would have implications with respect to future funding requirements, which to date have largely been through placings

5. GROC - over the course of the next 2 years then they should be working towards DFS and may well attract some more non dilutive funding in the meantime.

I asked about the pendant directly a few days ago. In all fairness a prompt reply, but no definitive answer on timescales. That's a shame as I had set aside funds to buy one as a christmas present. By which I mean Christmas 2025.

When an executive publicly sets forth a set of clear timelines and costs, it shows he or she can plan and opens those plans up to scrutiny and perhaps revision. When they are largely able to achieve those plans, then they are measurably effective managers and are publicly proven to be so. That instills a great deal of confidence in investors. Avoiding setting forth plans is indicative of not wanting to be objectively criticised.

Cost .. perhaps, safety perhaps. Caustic soda is pretty nasty stuff but hydrofloric acid is in a league of its own

@Divermike ... I agree that there have been missed opportunities at CStD particularly with the cessation of underground exploration following the successful dewatering. There seems to be no appetite for progressing this, and the departure of the mine manager was not made public, it was something that we ended up finding out for ourselves. So at the time of the mine visit, perhaps the BOD had already intended to suspend operations there. I can only speculate that this was due to a lack of cash. Ore, certainly in late spring early summer, remained unprocessed on the surface. Some amendment to the pilot processing plant was made, however there is little or not evidence of it being utilised. At the AGM the strategy of diversifying the portfolio was defended by the executive, but not the rationale behind it. Attending shareholders argued it would be better to hold off on investing in new projects until the exploration of level 5 was complete.

On monday HHDL should have delivered some documents to the local planning authority Surrey. Could this be the start of a process to resume production at Horse Hill ? I would point out that the Horse Hill project was fully impaired (i.e. rendered worthless) on ALBA's balance sheet. It provided an income stream, after many many years of anticipation.

Im talking about the 3 February 2025 placing, as they are the only ones which have a 2p exercise price attached

If the placing price was 1.3p then

Institutional Investors paid £500,000 so got £500,000 / (1.3/100) = 38,461,538 shares and 19,230,769 warrants (2p ex price 10th? Feb 2027)

ALBA paid £50,000 and got 3,846,154 shares 1,923,077 warrants

Other Shareholders paid £165,000 and got 12,692,308 and 6,346,154 warrants

Directors paid £17,500 and got 1,346,154 shares and 673,077 warrants

There is a discrepancy of 192,308 shares about £2,500 worth at the 1.3p price.

Setting that aside three distinct exercises of warrants have taken place to date

A. 16/07/25 3,846,153

B. 07/11/25 3,846,153

C. 11/11/25 961,538

Exercises A and B could only have been from institutional investors or from "Other existing shareholders"

because neither ALBA nor the BOD have sufficient numbers of this class of warrants

Exercise C could have been ALBA because the number exercised would exactly corresponds to 50% of their warrant holding of this class

at the same time it could also have been the "institutional investors" or the "existing shareholders"

Summary of the below

over the coming months

expect the exercise of 19,615,387 warrants at 2p, .....

I predict this will be exercised in 3 tranches, each not exceeding 8.4 million shares.

This is likely to suppress the SP to a range 2.3 - 3.0 p until the final tranche

After the final tranche, it is likely that the SP will quickly rise to a higher level more reflective of the fundamental value

If your investment horizon is less than 16 months or so, then you are probably better off taking profits now

..... because if they believed that the SP is likely to be higher in the next 14 months, then they would delay exercising their warrants until then.

Another explanation is that they have their own internal policies on holding warrants.

My speculative prediction about their short to medium term actions. I believe that this anonymous institution would like to preserve their anonymity, and whilst the SP is well above the exercise price, then they will exercise and sell into the market. I believe they will exercise only when they have sold all of their existing GROC shares and will sell less than an amount that would render them liable to submit a TR1 .... so I am guessing about 8.4 million shares and I expect that soon as I think but cannot be certain that they have run out of shares to sell. When that 8.4 million is successfully sold to the market, then I would expect them to exercise their remaining warrants ... with a simiar exercise of 8.4M and a smaller final exercise of the remaining 2.8 million shares

With current levels of interest in the shares, then I believe that this will suppress the SP until they are sold. Thereafter, I believe the supply of the shares to the market will have dried up.

The company is not putting a foot wrong operationally and have sufficient cash runway from the recently granted loan facility to not hinder any planned progress nor to pressurise the executive into issuing new shares at discounts in the near future (if ever at all).

In my opinion, this is now the time to hold and perhaps buy the dips. Tempted as I have been, to trade my predicted retraction, in the hope of increasing my holding, it runs the risk of some unpredicted positive news, so I will be holding. I am closely counting the number of unexercised warrants, regretably, yahoo finance no longer provide a free csv download of individual trades, so its difficult to monitor the progress of the take up of shares. However, what will be known and I shall endeavour to share on here and other places, is when that last tranche of 2p warrants are exercised. At that point, then I am likely to make substantial purchases as the supply of shares to the market will be greatly reduced.

Patience is needed , bear in mind that operationally everything is going very well and the processes are transparent. We need 6 to 8 months of patience, then I expect the market will begin to more accurately reflect the fundamental value of this share.

As a footnote, I would point out that the BOD (and an LLP through which a member trades) holds 1.65% of the issued shares, (naturally indirectly some have more via ALBA). But, the BOD do have options or warrants with an exercise price of 10p which exptire 28 Sept 2026, (i.e. in 9 months time)

@ocelot *at least 40%* is in sticky hands. By which I mean the shareholders that are noted in annual accounts and those that have issued TR1s and those individual private investors who have shared details of their holdings with me.

BOD members (or LLPs which they work through) 1.65% Major corportate shareholders (ALBA & Kadupul) 31.5% Me and PI's known to me 8.42%

41.57% in total definitely in sticky hands.

I would imagine that there are substantially more who also have longer term investment horizons. I do not believe that the share is sought nor favoured by those with short investment horizons , as it has gained little traction with the likes of "Perfect10" group, although ALBA whose present value is largely comprised of their GROC holding has received some speculative short term attention. As such the share is quite inelastic, and my fairly modest investement caused a shift in price when it was around the 1.6p mark.

3 Feb 2025 a substantial placing was made which secured GROC's means of progressing fieldwork in 2025, which was a good move because that fieldwork is a precursor for other activites and as such lies on the critical path. For clarity, the an activity on the critical path (a critical activity) is one for which a delay in its completion would result in a delay in the completion of the overall project. That successful placing was done by a north american institution. That institution was unnamed. No TR1 was issued, so either the shares were immediately sold to other institutions or they simply neglected to submit a TR1. This leads me to think that the North American Institution does not want its participation publicly known.

As part of that placing they were granted warrants,

10 FEB 2027 with an

exercise price of 2p.

19,615.387 in number

so at the time of writing then there is 1 year 2 months left until expiry, and the warrants are "in the money"

so there is no time pressure to exercise them at present, nevertheless, the company received notice of exercising those warrants on

16 Jul 2025 ::: 3,846,153

07 Nov 2025 ::: 3,846,153

11 Nov 2025 ::: 961,538

A total volume of about 3.1% of the company, however no TR1 has been issued, which leads me to believe that they :

definitely sold more the 0.1% of the shares in issue

but more probably sold or seek to sell all of them. I believe that this is the main supply of shares to the market in the current condition and I believe that this is suppressing the share price.

Again, by keeping under the 3% for a TR1 declaration, then they are prioritising their anonymity.

This is an indication of their future behaviour, which I will come to later.

So what are their motives for wishing to commit capital to exercising their options (or at least some of them) ?

one explanation is that they wish to seize profits when they can, but it implies that they believe that they think that there is a risk that the SP will decline between the time of exercise and the ex

Even if the trades are for less than £10

I think a lot of shares are in very sticky hands. ALBA Kadpul HUgh, the BOD, some others known to most of us

about 33%, ALBA Kadpul and the BOD

about 7% Hugh and others that I know, who are sticky holders ... that's 40%

There's two ....

... seller hasnt been active though

Been watching the action, quite a few chunky sales have been going through, possibly from the warrants exercise. Cant see many LTH selling. No TR1 from any other big players so ... If you are in it for at least to DFS or FID, if you're looking for a short term spike, then it's probably not for you

What I like about Stefan's management style, is that he developed an early credible strategy, he clearly states what his costed intentions and regularly reports on them. By and large he achieves them. End of December or January, doesn't make any difference to the overall project , as the other activities immediatly being pursued are not dependent on its exact timing. I would imagine that he is very confident of it, since the parallel and next step activities are already underway.

No, ALBA is not valued at less than the market value of their holding in GROC

GROC holding is worth £1,670,000 or so

ALBA macp is £2,580,000 or so

GROC makes up about 65% of its market value

Who was trying to "stitch up" SAV ?

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Wish they'd get on with the Pendants. Getting a bit too close for comfort for christmas pressie material now