Member Info for elir71

@vauch

All the kit is on site at Asphalt Ridge, once in place and commissioned I'm sure they're keen to get it running ASAP. Petroteqs have been good communicators of late and this is a huge piece of news. Significant news flow would be :

Posp trial run
Posp producing 500 bopd
Deal with qfi for msar tech licence
Posp in production with msar
In 6 to 12 months....
5000 bopd plant ordered
Above commissioned
Above in production
12 to 18 months
Second 5000 bopd ordered
Second 5000 bopd commissioned

there's a contract right under QFI's nose in Utah. I posted that it concerned me that the bod seemed pleased to the point of complacency that they had bergen funding until Q1 2021, which is now almost upon us. In the bod's defence I think they've been dealt a hard hand to play and they have made other progress on the projects that are most close to commercialisation. Nevertheless, winter is coming. Unless they strike a deal with Greenfield to boost revenue, then it is likely they will have to do another dilutive placing in late Q1 to keep the lights on. From my reading of the RNS at the time of the first Bergen tranche, there were conditions applied to agreeing to a second tranche, conditions that the company may not have met.

For new posters, Bergen are investors, who make finance available to companys who cannot easily raise money in more conventional ways. These are usually in the form of convertible loans, where Bergen make a cash "loan" to QFI and instead of repaying Bergen in cash, they are repaid in newly issued shares (the implied price of which would be at significant discount to the market price ), sometimes they are also granted options too with exercise prices at considerable discounts to the market price.

There are potential drawbacks to existing shareholders. :- risk of pump and dump, dilution

As I've said before, rather than seeking to find prospects that may become commercial projects in years to come, it is time to close the deal with Asphalt Ridge Utah. If that can't be closed before seeking further finance, then I can't see a clear way forward that would hold any attraction to existing shareholders.

The POSP is about to restart with its upgrade within days.

There are a number of reasons why there would be a share price drop prior to good news.
1. there could be strong trends which may attract investors to sell higher risk AIM shares and to reinvest in blue chip strong upward trend stocks. This is possibly the case with being attracted to well capitalised company's being marked up on news of vaccine.
2. Tree shake : MM / brokers may have large buy orders in Tomco to fulfill. In a paradox of efficient market theory, some MM may drop prices to fill large orders in the hope of triggering nervous investors stop losses, thus providing a supply of shares to fill their orders. They can only get away with this on thin volumes and wide spreads

Do your own research
Quantify the value of news and a share for you
Clarify the objectives of your investment
Be objective and rational

Couldn't believe my luck in seeing the drop today, filled my boots !

I'm expecting the posp to be turned on this week

Thanks ocelot. So they should know quite soon if this has been successful or not then. Days? Weeks?

If the financial result is what I think it is: instead of pumping water they start pumping Brent sweet crude then given the quantities and ALBAs share in it then it makes a 0.02 p difference to our value per share. Using big approximation of 5 yrs profit equals contribution to share.

I know zip all about oil Wells, can someone give me a short idiots guide explanation about what was achieved in the RNS. Is it prevention of water ingress into the well from start above?

EMS 500,000 shares

between 5 nov and 6 nov we see this in trades :-
"04-Nov-20 10:49:32 0.485 5,000,000 Buy* 0.45 0.49 24.25k "
It'd never the 20p trades that are reported late is it.... completely stinks

I am not in any way tacitly condoning insider trading which trading . If you have material information on unpublished lab results then it is illegal to use that privilege, or alllow that privileged information to be used (i.e. nodding to your mates down the pub to invest on such information.

That said, substantial investments may mark the entry of significant new investors into a share, so I would argue that share dealing information should be promptly and accurately reported. How many times have I seen substantial trades reported the next day. How many times have I seen micro trades distorting the spread and sells being reported as buys ?

to add to that, dewatering is not just abou draining the existing floodwater, it is also about continuous pumping out of the mine. Its not true to say that just because the existing water is free of contaminants that future water that flows through rocks (which almost certainly contain heavy metals, pyrite etc) will continue to be free of contaminants. None of this is impossible to overcome, however it is not necessarily as trivial nor low cost as some may think.

Albas announcement stated the the results would be released as one. My initial guess for assay results were 2 weeks after end of site investigation, however, the previous tests they had done were released 2 months after end of site investigations. So ... you could reasonably guess results are likely between 15th Nov 20 and 4th Jan 21.

For the ongoing investigations then the new kit from RSA should be able to do the bulk of the processing and I think it will be a fountain of news.

this is an especially interesting series of holes which intercept the vein worked from Lower Llechfraith (currently flooded). The area below this is unexplored and once dewatered available for almost immediate exploitation. Its quite a bit under the level of Afon Mawddach

The info the site gets from the market is
type of trade (usually O - ordinary)
date
time
bid
ask
trade price

Then this site works out whether or not it was an investor buy (MM sell) or an investor sell (MM buy) by determining if the the trade price is nearer the bid or ask respectively. Sometimes, if you do a dummy sell / dummy buy then you'll see that the MM reported bid / ask may differ considerably from the reality.

So, if you were a MM who wanted to manipulate reports of sells or buys then you report an unrealisticaly high ask. so the trade would look like an investor sell, when it is in fact an investor buy.

You can probably look forward to other abuses nearer the time of expected good news, such as treeshakes to try and trigger stop losses. Poor regulation lets them get away with this

I think most of the current shareholders are happy with the level of investment they have committed at this stage.
The lower Bergen shares have been sold
So volumes will thin until either new investors are attracted (as a product of news) or (and) substantial news that confirms grades and reduces future uncertainty. At such point, don't be surprised if the MM try a treeshake even on good news.

In the event of bad news, (i.e. poor assay results) then the MM will drop the SP like a stone, to well below the current value of the company's other assets, which is of course another buy opportunity, although, with the Bergen facility gone, then it would be significantly risky.

I must say I'm pleased with how the company has kept shareholders in the loop

Is it the 11th Nov that the POSP will be turned on ?

@J99

oh yes moneyprinting galore, you may not have noticed the £150 bn money printing announced this morning ... probably as a good day to bury bad news day. A deplorable practice that should have stopped with the disgusting abuses of the past.

The other assumptions I made was 500k tonnes of ore
I made the conservative assumption of US$ 1500 per oz over the life of the mine and the life of the mine at 22 years
I further made the assumption that the costs of additional infrastructure was similar in cost to scotgold, however there would not be a cost to driving the additional adits.

I can make calcs available for public viewing if you want, as I have done in the past. Im sure it wouldnt be too difficult to find a method of pming me

Copied from previous

I believe that the company can be valued as the sum of its projects as they have little interdependence now it is likely we would be able to raise conventional finance for exploration of Greenland etc.

I'm going through each project in turn, but as Clogau is the most fluid I have revisited my estimate by making some comparison of future revenue streams with that of an already functioning British gold mine in an environmentally sensitve area , operated by Scotgold. Given that much can go wrong between substantially complete assay results then I would look at the immediate impact on share price being about 50% of the 12 month impact on the share price.

To be clear this only represents the existing mine reopening, not new gold mines in Dolgellau Gold Belt nor any other project

grade in Au g / T impact on SP at assay result + 18 months ... assume 50% of that impact upon results in p

5 Au g / T 0.67p
10 Au g / T 1.35p
15 Au g / T 2.02p
20 Au g / T 2.69p
25 Au g / T 3.38p
30 Au g / T 4.05p
35 Au g / T 4.72p
40 Au g / T 5.4p
50 Au g / T 6.75p