Member Info for ElectricLion

- No warrants!!! I didn't think that genie would ever be put back in the bottle, but it has. Kudos.
- Fairly small discount to market price. Raising money above market price is a fantasy for the most part. It does happen, but very very rarely.
- Can afford to do both exploration and progress production. MC clearly wants to do exploration drilling but was finding it hard to justify the cost IMO.
- 47.7p to buy 11k shares right now. NT for any more. A drop towards placing price would not be unexpected, but holding firm for now.

Absolutely agree Amanenisia. In addition, why would PIs think the MMs are manipulating the markets? Well that one's quite easy - they don't understand what MMs do or how the market works in general and/or they want someone to blame (rather than themselves) when the SP moves against them. It's usually nonsense.

Confusion over the amount of buys and sells can also contribute to the misunderstanding (eg. why is the SP falling when most of the trades are buys). The stock exchange does not report whether a trade is a buy or a sell, so sites like LSE guess based on the price of the trade vs the bid/ask at the time. But this is an inexact science, and so mislabelling trades is common-place and not to be relied upon.

I give up. You lot stew in your own negativity if you like. I'm gonna take a break. (From this board, not from Condor). Good luck with your investments.

rr, it seems that you think that if the SP goes down, it means someone knows something bad is about to happen and is selling before it does, causing the drop. That's the implication I get from your logic. But, insider dealing is illegal and heavily punished if caught. Unlikely that outsiders will get much of a sniff of bad news before it's announced. So if it goes to the 20s (highly unlikely at this point IMO, but in a stictly mathematical sense, anything's possible), it will mean something, but maybe not what you think it means. The last time we were stuck in the 20s it was a combination of a long gold bear market and two, yes two, major investers selling out - City Financial went bust and liquidated all their holdings and the IFC. Perhaps some Condor-related reasons there, it was never quite clear, but as I recall they were also reviewing all of their investments in light of an entire new policy. We were mired in the low 20s for quite a while, but looking back, it was a humungous buying opportunity. When the SP did rise from that area, it tripled in 3 months! You do you, it seems that your self-confessed approach ("will top up if remains stable (above 38)", "if drops to 20p I may have to cut my losses"), is likely to lead to buying high and selling low. Not meant as an attack, or investment advice, just something to consider.

Agreed ISA. While I just said that one's strategy doesn't matter all that much if you're content with it, it does seem a little odd to prefer to buy at a higher price than a lower one, but WTFDIK!

Not sure what you were wanting Hawaii. Toll mining is, IMO, a long shot at this point, but whether it is or not, any ongoing negotiation will be confidential. The last few percent of the land was always highly likely to require CP. That's why such a thing exists in the first place. What do you want him to do? Hand over a blank cheque? He gave quite a full answer to the question of warrants. He doesn't like them either. But long story short, beggars can't be choosers. The cornerstone investers have the biggest say in setting the price. Look likely to me that the SP has been held back by RB reducing (we don't know whether he's selling out entirtely or not yet), rather than warrants. Yes, he's been messed about by the sellers of one of the plants. Not ideal but not his fault and there are other options. Wants to get that bought ASAP. He really wants to get the mine into production and will hire where necessary to get the required expertise. Drilling results on the way which should be good. If you were wanting more than that, perhaps it was your expectations that were unrealistic.

Not entirely what I meant Seingred. I don't have a particular need to tell everyone what strategy they should be employing. Only that whatever strategy they choose ought to be one they are content with, that is all.

Think that might have been it...

There's always a choice. To say otherwise is to fail to take responsibility for your own actions and their consequences.

You can put yourself out of this misery any time you like. I honestly don't understand this psychological issue which causes people to hang on to stocks they hate. Bizarre.

For myself, I'm watching closely for any sign of bottoming. Easy 20%+ to be made on a relatively short-term trade here, unless you believe this is going to zero of course.

Only 90k left. I forget how many there were originally but probably a couple of million. So what's left is pretty insignificant either way.

If you want to ask the question at all, leave out the Condor part entirely IMO. Merely ask if he intends to divest from some of his smaller investments. Mentioning Condor at all will instantly out your agenda.

No, Elgor it hasn't. Thanks for that. Very interesting coincidence...

Very variable rr. Can look back at past accounts to get an idea but I understand the majority of staff are contracters, brought on to do a job and then let go again. Drilling is a large cost, and we can do just about as much or as little of that as we like. MC has cut costs to the bone in the past to conserve cash and will do so again if he has to.

I tend to find that large, round-number trades reported after the market closes are the most reliable indicator of large holders selling. There was a few a couple weeks ago, which may well have been RB. But nothing the past couple of days. Far too early to say whether he's done or not, but the drop over the last few days a.) was probably going to happen anyway and b.) most likely jumpy PIs self-fulfilling their prophecy of doom rather than RB himself.

rr, lack of cash flow just means a bit more dilution, that's all. Not had a problem raising cash before, even in the depths of the bear market. With respect, don't panic!

A handful of other thoughts:

The smaller starter plant should be quicker to put together than a larger one.

AISC will probably be lower in the early days as we'll look to high-grade the ore that we get out first (the main point of some of the drilling we're currently doing).

I understand our tax bill will be low to zero to begin with as we can offset costs to date against profits.

The key really to these valuations is our low AISC. Therefore we should be valued higher than many of your comparisons Seingred on a production ozs basis as we'll be making more profit per oz.

Timeframes are less important to me than to yourself or some others Seingred. I'm in no particular rush.

Toll mining, I haven't been convinced of ever since Calibre bought B2's mines. It rather sounds like it was virtually a done deal with local B2 management at that point, and then when it was escalated to senior management it was vetoed on the basis that they were selling the mines. Calibre have had plenty of time to consider it, but still no sign. It doesn't factor into my scenarios at this point. (So it's a significant added bonus to them if it does happen.)

In terms of production scenarios, one can tweak the variables until the cows come home, but a couple of examples.

Assuming AISC is $690/oz, a smaller starter plant at 60k oz a year gives $49m net profit per year.

I'm uncertain what an appropriate P/E ratio would be for us. You mentioned one random one a while back with a P/E ratio of 7. Lacking any serious problems, that's generally considered to be very good value, and so a conservative figure for me to use.

P/E of 7 implies a MCap of £268m. The smaller plant scenario implies low (ish) dilution. Again, tough to put a number on it, but let's say 180m total shares. That gives a £1.50 share price.

Every other scenario goes up from there.

Straight in with the larger plant and plugging 120k oz with 200m shares into my spreadsheet, keeping all else the same gives £2.68.

Allowing ourselves to dream a bit (this'll also take a bit longer) gives the bull case. 170k oz. $2500/oz. P/E 10 (still pretty conservative), 200m shares (right ballpark I hope, but who really knows).

£8.48.

Two choices at the end of the day. Stick or twist. Your call. RB does not feature in my investment case for Condor. Nor does MC particularly, though I think those wishing for a replacement should be careful what they wish for. SP projections based on production scenarios do. I prefer numbers over personality cults.