Member Info for ElectricLion

Equinox has always been his 'swan-song' company. That'll be the very last thing to go I imagine. And underwritten only means that he'll make up the difference if the raise is under-subscribed, so it's possible he may not have actually contributed a cent.

It seems pretty clear to me he is tidying up in preparation for his retirement, though he doesn't seem in a big rush and may not sell out of all his investments at the same time or at the same rate. He doesn't need the money and IMO his selling here is unlikely to be due to his opinion of the company, it's assets or it's management. His investment here after all is minuscule compared to his net worth, so not going to move the needle one way or another for him. Such selling as there has been seems to be pretty sensitively handled. Were it not for the TR1's we wouldn't even know it was happening.

Any large shareholder selling is not a cause for celebration, but he hasn't apparently brought any other investors with him and hasn't contributed a whole lot, so I won't lose any sleep over him going. Got to look to the future, not the past, and for me the arrival of First Majestic is of more consequence than the depature of Ross Beaty.

Agreed. I don't know what the problem was with getting the toll deal across the line, but it was always the case that the longer it went on, the less useful it would be to us. I think it was said that it would take 4 months give or take to begin delivering ore after a toll deal was signed, so time's run out IMO. If the lead time to our own production has been cut by 12 months, could we be in production within 12 months?

Wakey Wakey! Where is everyone?! lol

The more I look at that RNS the better it gets. Hard to know where to start.

Brand new mill for cheap? Reduce lead time by 12 months? Payment in shares at 50p? First Majestic as a major new shareholder?

Can anyone clarify what other equipment we'll need? For the price, this can't be all that's required? Can it?

Be criminal if the SP doesn't end up well into the 50s today. I wonder if I'll be able to buy some more early doors before it takes off?

I was going to quote just the good bits, but tell me, look at that RNS and tell me which bits of it aren't good?! Incredible work. Hats off.

We're on our way!

I don't really take a view on the gold price myself. I don't feel I have any insight into the machinations of banks and governments or the tangled relationships between inflation, bond yields, and safe-haven assets like gold, or how crypto-currencies may or may not have changed the traditional relationships between these factors, so I don't invest in gold directly. I see all the arguments for gold rising, and the occasional one for it falling, but even if those theories hold water, as someone once said, it's hard to make predictions, especially about the future! If the market is indeed rigged, then what is stopping the can from being kicked down the road another few decades?

If one believed that gold was close to it's bull-market blow-off top, then yes Condor is perhaps not the investment you would choose, but in that scenario, a better reason than production being 2 years away would be it's low AISC. Gold miners are leveraged to the gold price. So if you believe the gold price will go up, what you want to do is invest in producers which have an AISC around the current gold price, as it will be those companies that have the greatest leverage to the gold price when it rises.

But low AISC gives Condor some resiliance to a falling gold price as well as exposure to a rising one. While it may not benefit the most from a big bull market run, a rising tide floats all boats. M&A activity will probably be ramped up further in that situation as well.

Politically, much is said, on this board anyway, about the jurisdictional risk, but for my money Nic isn't actually that bad. Many places look a bit shady from our comfortable armchairs in the West, but I'd rather have investments in most of the Americas than in most of Africa for example, or some of Eastern Europe, or maybe even Russia and China.

The waiting does seem interminable, I'll give you that, but fears that Condor will "miss" the upcoming bull market (if there is one) are misplaced IMO. It does however have a certain insulation from the gold price, due to that low AISC, which I personally view as a good thing, but other opinions are available!

My final thought (for this post!) is that things may (only may, no predictions!) look very different here in a couple of months. However long it actually takes in real time, in mine-lifecycle terms, we are right on the precipice of a.) completing all the land purchases, b.) putting down a deposit on a plant, which should lead to both a concrete mine size and construction timeline. Even if one did have a mind to move into other equities for gold price reasons, I personally would be waiting for those events to take place first, at which point, surely, surely, surely Condor's SP should be a decent bit higher than it is now, regardless of what the gold price is doing at the time.

A little perplexing that you managed to get 4 upvotes for that post, considering it really doesn't make a lot of sense. Perhaps you could explain the thought process by which you come to the conclusion that if the land isn't sorted out by elections there'll be another decade of waiting? Or why you think it won't be. Or what exact questions you think this RNS has thrown up, or what exactly about it appears to be half-arsed? Or are you referring to some other RNSs perhaps? Genuinely curious to see if you have a decent answer for any of the above. I suspect not, but you don't know for sure unless you ask.

A little more background for anyone willing and able to engage in a intelligent and constructive debate (and who doesn't know this already of course). There are elections in Nicaragua in November. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Nicaraguan_general_election.

From reading various articles, it seems to me that the opposition to the current administration has been pretty much squashed in the wake of the political unrest in 2016. See https://todaynicaragua.com/daniel-ortega-eliminates-competition-in-2021-elections/ and https://todaynicaragua.com/ortega-prepares-his-re-election/

Please note I am in no way endorsing the current administration or it's anti-democratic leanings in any way, but the reality is that for us as investors, political stability and the continuation of a regime that appears to be friendly to foreign mining is better for our investment here.

There's always a chance of course that trouble will spring up around election time, but for better or worse, I think the current administration will have things locked down pretty tightly and the election itself is very probably a foregone conclusion.

In my opinion, I would put the percentage chance of us buying the remaining land before the elections in November in the high-nineties. Needless to say we'd all like to see it a lot sooner.

I believe the extension to the permits runs until the early summer. I do hope we don't have to delay again, but if the land is the only remaining issue at that point, I really would expect the government to step in and sort it out on our behalf. They want the tax and jobs the mine will bring just as much as we want a return on our investment.

Even if that doesn't happen, and for some reason we don't have the land by November, I still cannot figure out why that would mean another decade of waiting. I await your answer with baited breath.

Interesting points tester. I hadn't realised a toll mining deal could potentially mean that much to Calibre's bottom line. It's easy to forget that they're not really that big in the grand scheme of things. They may also struggle to buy Condor at the price we would want.

Personally, I've given up hope of a toll deal ever materialising. If there was a deal to be made it would surely have been done by now. That said, a 50/50 profit sharing deal is so obviously a win for everyone, it's really hard to see why it hasn't happened. Either someone somewhere is being too greedy or as you say, there's other considerations at work.

Which keeps bringing me back to the elephant in the room. What are Rio's intentions in all this? Surely they didn't get into bed with Calibre without a lot of due diligence and a long-term game plan? So what is it and how long will it take to come to fruition?

https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/condor-gld-CNR/share-chat

Seems to me that you have more to say on this issue now that we've started than previously when we hadn't. Poor old MC can't do anything without getting it in the neck from someone for some reason can he!

A lot of 20/20 hindsight there Punter. If I'd done things differently in the past, I'd probably have been better off now too. But that's not a fair way to judge yourself or anyone else. You can only make the best decision you can with the information you have at the time. Be happy that we've started.

Bemuses me why everyone hasn't filtered this twerp (NS, not you Connect!) yet. Life's too short to waste even a second of it on nonsense like his IMO.

If anything, that video reminded me of the big picture, not the small nitty gritty that concerns us each and every day. Yes, I did say the land is small nitty gritty. May not seem like it now, but we will get the land, one day, one way or another, and a plant too and after that we're off to the races. Yes, we'll have to wait some more, and I agree that's getting tedious, but this is the second video I've seen recently where they've been discussing the ideal junior mining investment... and they're essentially describing Condor. We will have our day in the sun eventually. Until then, I for one probably need to look at the SP a little less often and try to keep the big picture in mind.

Some Friday afternoon musings. No particular axe to grind.
- Gold is dumping hard, where next I wonder?
- A high gold price is good for all goldies, but a low AISC is more important (and desirable) in a low gold price environment than a high price one.
- The new Calibre CEO may be interested in some kind of deal with Condor even if the outgoing CEO wasn't.
- But then again, he still sounds like part of the core team, so maybe no change.
- Calibre's short-term SP isn't looking too hot.
- Personally finding it hard to believe after all this time that a toll mining deal is still on the table.
- But surely there must be a way to make a deal that benefits both Calibre and ourselves, so long as no-one's too greedy.
- I can sell 75000 Condor shares at 47p (not that I'm going to). Unusual to be able to offload that much in one go.

I am of the opinion we don't have a balanced view on this board any more. Too many frustrated LTHs TBF. I've lost count of the number of posts telling us to be "realistic", to "keep our feet on the ground" and those who are merely "telling it like it is". Quite a few suggesting we'd be better with another CEO (be careful what you wish for IMHO), and quite a large number of plain and simple whinging, but without providing any constructive suggestions, much less ever engaging with the company to communicate those concerns, properly and respectfully.

Buy, hold, sell, trade, I care not, but all this complaining gets on my nerves. If you don't like it, sell. If you find an investment you prefer, go. No-one's stopping you. If you stay, be honest with yourself why - either you have a psychological attachment preventing you from letting go (it happens, I'm not judging, but it's not helpful to successful investing) or you understand that despite the conerns you may have, you never-the-less must logically believe that there is the potential for making decent money here, one way or another.

There are likely to be few companies that are significantly under-valued without there being some reason for them being so. If you want a company with no problems and no risks, you are also very likely to find it is valued pretty highly, with little opportunity for further increases.

The stock is illiquid, we know that. A handful of trades in either direction have an outsize impact on the SP. To acquire millions of shares as a new buyer on the open market is all but impossible without sending the SP into orbit. So the only way any large new invester can get a decent chunk is through a placing. That's how RB got in, how Nic Milling got in and how JM continues to build his already large holding. But we know MC doesn't like dilution any more than we do, so there are limited opportunities to participate in placings, and the last one was swallowed up by JM and other, unnamed I believe, existing large shareholders.

There is no current evidence that any large shareholders are selling right now. I find large round-number trades reported after market close are often the best way to identify such action, and I haven't seen any recently. RB may, or may not reduce further, but we don't know that, nor do we know his reasons for selling in the first place, though it seems reasonable to suppose that it's linked with other actions he has taken recently that seem oriented towards his retirement. ie. not Condor-specific.

I don't quite believe it - if that was the case, that would have justified a whole RNS on it's own, not jammed into a comment at the end of this one. Perhaps he's just talking about the same nominal/target numbers we've been seeing in RNSs for years, and not specifically about the new plant? Great news if true, but not quite sure it means exactly what we think it means.

In any case, the drilling news is also great. Reading between the lines, the results of this drilling should be very good, though it may be a while before results are confirmed.

There was a drop to a little above the placing price a few days before. I'm not one for conspiracy theories, but it does make you wonder. SP looking strong today.

MC knows how it would go down if he sold even a single share. So therefore any shares he aquires he is essentially committed to holding for the foreseeable future, perhaps years. He does not take a large salary from Condor in the grand scheme of things and I would surmise that he doesn't have bottomless pockets, unlike JM. So his ability to pocket large numbers of new shares is probably lower than we might imagine. I would think some of the larger PIs on here have more in their bank accounts, and can be more flexible with it, than he may be able to.

He could take a much larger salary, then he might be able to afford more. Or if he regularly traded them? Or he could take full advantage of placings, warrants and options to get his mitts on as many shares at a discount to market price as he can. Which would you prefer?

Very unlikely IMV. More likely to do with his retirement preparation. TBF, I doubt he gives Condor much thought, one way or another.