Member Info for ElectricLion

You're blowing hot and cold tester. I think your genuine, but your post today stands in pretty stark contrast to your April 19th post. A 'Strong Buy' rec to 'Sell' in 9 days. Are you out now?

I am in RMM and CNR, amongst others. It's not an either, or situation, unless you're gambling the farm on every throw of the dice. The definition of "long-term" is a bit subjective, but Condor is well over double what it was in 2019. I am not particularly disappointed, it's just that a large part of the value here has not yet been realised that is all. Such is the lot of the value investor. Too many PIs don't really even have a strategy - they just chase anything that moves. But those that do their research and have suffficient patience will be rewarded in the end.

Fact of the matter is that we're just not in a very interesting phase of the mine lifecycle. Only so much can be done about that. Not MC's fault particularly. It's a well-known curve. He just needs to keep on doing his job and we just need to stay patient (or sell, or trade crypto binary options, or whatever floats your boat) until the market recognises the value here. That's the thing about being a value/contrarian investor - a lot of the time, it looks like you're wrong! That's one of the reasons why few people do it well.

https://twitter.com/NorthstarCharts/status/1383030327350820865

I'm not a massive believer in technical analysis, but I like this guy. He's not a perma-bull, he tends to call it as he sees it.

If it comes to pass, +$800/oz (more than our predicted AISC!) on the gold price would surely light a rocket under the whole sector, whether producing or not.

Just got around to watching this (my personal and professional lives are taking up a lot of my time and energy at the moment!)

I'm not going to take half-an-hour to respond to every one of rr's points, but just some thoughts of my own that you are naturally free to take on board or dismiss entirely!

The PFS and the Capex number within is now virtually irrelevent. It's old and I imagine was always a fairly rough guess in the grand scheme of things. I think MC said that a PFS is done to within 25% either way, so that's a lot of room for leeway. So not much value to be had trying to work backwards from that PFS number to establish how much CapEx is left.

It sounds to me like this is one of the items with the longest lead time. Wanting value for money is fair enough, but I think the priority has to be on getting to production as quickly as possible. Bringing forward production by, let's say for the sake of argument, 6 months, is probably not worth trying to save every single penny on the up-front cost.

A few weeks ago, someone was talking about wanting the next raise to be at above-market prices, which at the time I shot down as being unrealistic. Well, that's exactly what we had with the shares issues to First Majestic! To then complain that First Majestic are getting a great deal as the shares should be worth a lot more is a little unreasonable IMV.

I'm inclined to take MC's word on the land issue. It's right and proper to not fork out more of the company's (our) money than necessary. The government will be forced to get involved at some point if there's a stalemate, as the mine may not go ahead without it, and they want the mine up and running almost as much as we do.

Timelines are perhaps purposely and unavoidably hazy, but better to not commit than to commit and miss. It was never going to happen overnight.

Finance doesn't concern me. That's his field. He'll get the best deal that can be got.

Yes, there were some protests, and yes I don't think the company mentioned them. However they were well covered and discussed on here at the time. Much of the coverage at the time was high on emotion and low on facts. There was enough disingenuous BS coming from some of the protest leaders themselves that I lost respect for the movement. Every development in the world of any nature has those who oppose it. There has not been anything recently (that we are aware of). They may have been partially responsible for the IFC selling out, but they were never going to get much further. If there was any genuine wrong-doing, it was likely committed by the government/police, rather than Condor.

Have had this one on my watchlist for a while, but have been waiting for funds, which have literally just cleared, but what to do now? 50% up in a month... I don't want to get spiked, but hopefully more upside to come in time. Hummm... decisions, decisions.

There have been one or two. Have a peruse of the following:

https://www.condorgold.com/sites/default/files/WHI%20Condor%20Gold%20research%20note%20130p%20target%20FINAL%20051120.pdf

https://masterinvestor.co.uk/latest/condor-gold-unlocking-value/

There's still a number of unknowns and risks though, which limits the accuracy that anyone can value the company.

I personally like to look at valuation once in production. That'll take a year or two, but I'm not really sure there is a way to meaningfully assess the "correct" valuation at this point in the journey.

The SAG mill we have just bought will go up to 100k oz a year. A motor upgrade will take this to 120k oz, which I imagine we'd do as soon as we had a bit of cash. My understanding is that it is this piece of equipment more than any other that defines the scale of production.

Some back-of-the-envelope calculations follow. Just a rough mathematical model, not a prediction. DYOR obviously!

120k oz with gold at $1700/oz and AISC at $700/oz gives a nice round $120m profit a year. That's gross, so gotta take tax off of that. Leaves $84m net profit. An undemanding (or so I believe) P/E ratio is 7. Implies a $588m MCap, or £428m. Divide by total number of shares, say 200m (hard to say precisely), gives a £2.14 share price.

Most notable (further) upsides would come from a higher gold price. $2000/oz gold gives £2.78, all else staying the same. After a couple of years, it is planned to increase production to 170k oz a year.

Downside risks are lower gold price, more shares in issue than anticipated or a lower valuation despite the profits for some reason, perhaps due to political issues in the country or unforeseen technical issues.

Hope that helps.

Unnecessary Seingred. It's OK for others to have a different opinion to you, believe it or not.

I doubt anyone cares, but I post less than I used to, because the standard topics from the standard posters are boring me to be perfectly honest. If you wanna talk crypto, go find a crypto board. If you wanna lecture people on the one true way to invest, well... don't. If you wanna talk about gold or Condor, then please do so. If you have nothing to say, then say nothing.

You put out RNSs when there is something to say. Not to mollycoddle nervous PIs.

In many situations, they would just wait for the next day to release the RNS. There are rules on a timely release of price-sensitive info to the stock market, but I think waiting for the next working day would be quite normal. That said, I acknowledge that the RNS we are waiting for may be of such significance that a intra-day RNS may be considered appropriate. Don't hold your breath though.

No need to immediately go on the offensive. Yes of course in theory an RNS can drop at any time, but the vast majority of all RNSs for any company are released at 7am, so statistically that is by far the most likely option.

I tend to stick to UK-listed shares, plus I already have exposure to a Nicaragua-based gold explorer/miner! ;-)

Apart from those considerations, I'd want to do a bit more research, but they're probably worth a punt, yes.

$108m is £78m. Given MCap of £300m, that's a forward-looking P/E ratio of under 4. I haven't verified these numbers myself, but I think the market probably isn't factoring in Calibre's recent expanded production yet. Based purely on those numbers, Calibre seems undervalued, with a corresponding positive read-across to Condor's future valuation. And that's all at $1700/oz gold.

A few more ingrediants to throw in the pot:
- Calibre are probably undervalued.
- They have no debt and operational mines.
- Both Calibre and Condor will do well if gold goes higher.
- Both are likely to have good exploration results.
- A couple years after production start, we will hopefully be producing in the region of 170k oz.
- Calibre have Rio Tinto. We have a fledging relationship with First Majestic.

Lots to like for both companies, but I agree the valuation for Condor, once in production, is compelling whichever way you look at it.

https://twitter.com/NorthstarCharts/status/1377730970074374144

"The market" doesn't know any more than we do.

How is it relevent that he's Greek?

Yes, I agree it's disappointing, but of the 14 junior resource companies on my watchlist at the moment, virtually all have been showing weakness over the last couple of weeks. Sometimes the market just doesn't want to play.

Bye then.