Member Info for ElectricLion

Low sentiment, as shown by a few recent posts, is a bullish contrarian indicator. Also interesting how a few folks have reappeared after a long abscence. Bottom fishing perhaps? Gold price is looking stronger and the elections will be out of the way soon (for better or worse).

Sounds to me like MC knows the asking price for the land, and I think we could afford it, but he thinks it's too expensive. book5 on ADVFN is of the opinion that the miners want land rather than cash, which is problematic if we don't know how much gold is in the land they want. MC is clearly looking for a way to bring the price down before committing the funds, as is correct and proper. It's shareholders money he's spending after all!

As far as toll miling goes, it takes two to tango. I'm certain if both parties were content with a 50/50 profit split then a deal would have been done ages ago. Indeed, B2Gold had already essentially agreed terms. Clearly Calibre wanted more. More than MC was willing to give up. That's not his fault. Again, he has a responsibility to the shareholders.

It's not a question of sink or swim and it's alarmist, perhaps intentionally so, to claim it is. There's a process that you need to go through to build a mine and it takes time and effort and money to make it happen. We are simply placing one foot in front of the other, and in that manner, large distances can be covered.

Finance is the most significant near-term (relatively) milestone. However, with MC's background in finance and JM's financial heft, I don't see that being a problem. We just need to wait and see how expensive it will be in dilution terms.

Oh sorry, cambells, I must be blind! lol

Worth a listen none-the-less!

Posted on ADVFN, but haven't seen it here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=blHLGkdO2Xs

If you're interested in the short-term, then this probably isn't the share for you in the first place! A more interesting question would be, where do you see the SP end of 2024?

Since you asked though, I would say let's see how the elections go. I think part of the current dip is people either anticipating trouble or looking to trade it. Either way, I would say there's a dampening effect on the SP at present. If the elections go smoothly, then I would expect a modest rally in relief by the end of the year. Therefore, I would say back to mid-forties, but needless-to-say events may disrupt that prediction.

Very interesting point regarding inheritance tax elgordo. Not an area I've considered in the past, but as you say, somehing to ponder. A friend's grandfather died recently. His estate was around 2.5M, so 800k-ish went straight to the tax man. Ouch! Don't get me wrong, I'm all for paying what's fair to maintain the country's services that we all benefit from, but 800k, on income and assets that had already been taxed once, seems... steep.

Interested to know if anyone looks at any sort of risk assessment with their investments? I'm approaching a stage of life where avoiding losing a large proportion of my investments is becoming a more important factor than huge multi-baggers, at a correspondingly huge risk. Everyone, (particularly Seingred!), likes to talk about returns, but what about risk?

My take is that if you are young and/or have a smaller portfolio (compared to, I don't know, the amount that would change your life - paying off the mortgage or retiring or some such), then you're probably far more interested in the high-risk, and hopefully high-rewards, investments, but as you get older, you have less time to recover from a costly mistake, as you gain dependants, the consequences of a costly mistake become greater, and as your portfolio grows closer to a life-changing sum, then the more you have to lose.

A related subject no-one ever talks about (and I understand it can be rather passe to disclose such financials, particularly to strangers on the internet, but is none-the-less a hugely important subject), is asset allocation, and not just asset allocation for your liquid portfolio, but where that stands in relation to housing, pension or business assets.

It can be hard to mention this kind of thing without appearing to boast if you're doing well, or to feel that others wil look down on you if you're not, but that's not really the point, or not my point anyway. As a reference point, I have approximately equals sums in my house (East Midlands) equity (40% LTV), share portfolio (mostly AIM commodity stocks, for my sins) and pension (mostly Fundsmith and Lindsell Train). I have enough cash on hand for 6 months expenses (thinking I should up that to 12, but I can sell some shares in an emergency). I'm 39 years old with a decent job, a wife and two kids (not planning on any more!). My car's 11 years old now, but it's barely been driven in 18 months.

I'm starting to wonder for how much longer I should be playing the AIM game. I'll see CNR through to it's conclusion of course, but starting to think at that point I'll take whatever I've got, stick it in some well-regarded funds and give up the high-risk, high-reward life.

Your habit of throwing your, admittedly successful, investing history in everyone's faces at every possible opportunity is getting on my nerves too, truth be told. You clearly care what people think, or you wouldn't keep doing it, but it doesn't get you the respect you think you deserve because it's a tedious habit, springing from, it appears, a deep insecurity to simply be content with your own performance without having to force everyone else to acknowledge it as well. Do you think everyone else bought into CNR at £2 10 years ago with 100% of their capital, and has done nothing since? It really does come across that you think everyone else is a fool, and that is not an attitude that'll cause others to hold you in high regard, no matter how much money you have.

24 5K share trades yesterday, plus a 15K and a few 10Ks. Could easily make up 150K shares out of that, so perhaps that's another transfer, matched with the 150K late trade. Could be just some HNW PI moving shares into a SIPP, or something like that. All speculation of course, but if that is the case, then taking those trades out of the equation, we just have a typical low-volume slump, which we've all seen before, and may signify very little in the grand scheme of things.

Some strange trades going on at the moment. A couple of £100K trades a few days ago - possibly one buy and one sell, loads of 5K share trades yesterday, and then a 150K share trade reported after hours. I can't tell whats a buy and whats a sell TBH. Given the downward pressure on the price, one would assume more sells than buys overall, but it's not particularly obvious what's going on. Gold under pressure too recently, so that, perhaps combined with pre-election nerves is causing some to derisk. Will be interesting to see if these unusual trades persist or if it was just a blip.

While it may be causing some jitters, I consider it unlikely that the elections will spark any actual unrest. Who knows, maybe that comment will come back to haunt me - I can't predict the future any more than anyone else, but it seems that the result is a foregone conclusion, given that most of the opposition are under house-arrest. Sad though the situation is, the result is going to simply rubber-stamp the current administration. It's not going to suprise anyone.

While the price could of course go lower, I'd say this is a buying op.

The OP didn't ask everyone to cross-ramp their current portfolios at him!

In an attempt to answer the actual question, news articles on a site like https://www.mining.com/ is probably as good a place as any to seek out new investments.

... how refreshing it is to have a good RNS turn up on schedule. Coming off the back of, frankly, a debacle in KEFI yesterday, this goes a little way towards soothing my jangled nerves!

Agreed, under the circumstances, using a phrase like "security concerns" is like shouting fire in a crowded theatre. If the interview is to be taken at face value, then the RNS is astonishingly badly phrased, to the point of incompetance. On the other hand, should the interview be taken at face value? An RNS surely ought to carry more weight than an interview.

Of course, there are ways in which his opinion matters, even if it doesn't come true. It's good to have a major shareholder and financier who's bullish on gold obviously! It means he's not likely to sell the company cheaply, and if we have any trouble getting finance, I'm sure he'll get the cash together one way or another. He won't be doing it for altruistic reasons naturally - he'll want his cut, but while he's on board, I see virtually zero risk that the project won't get fiananced.

I feel like I'm doing Seingred's job for him, but JM has been predicting $2500 gold by "the end of the year" for at least the last two years running. He's just a guy, he doesn't have a crystal ball. Suffice to say, we'll be making good profits at around the current price. If it goes down, there'll be plenty of others in more pain than us and if it goes up, then yes, maybe we'll all be rich, but I guess my point is we *don't need* gold to go crazy to have a very profitable company, once in production.

A little harsh IMO. I want to see us in production as much as anyone, and it *could* be sooner than we think, but I'm not sure how much store we can really put into JM's musings at this point. There's nothing very concrete to back that thought up, yet. Fortunately, I'm not overly bothered about exactly when we start producing, so long as we continue to make progress towards that goal.

If your implication is that the fall today is because "the market" knows something specific about HZM, then I gotta say thats... unlikely at best. Most miners are down today.

"Expect the miners to be hit early after Chinese premier Li Keqiang said he would use “market tools” to stabilise commodity prices." - https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/960708/ftse-100-dives-further-carbon-dioxide-shortage-hits-uk-food-industry-960708.html

Charming.

https://www.bookbrowse.com/expressions/detail/index.cfm/expression_number/566/manners-make-the-man-manners-maketh-man

I'm pretty new here, but I haven't seen that much ramping, all things considered. What I am starting to see is GGP holders. Make of that what you will.

Miner's P/Es are certainly a fraction of those in the tech indutry in which I work, that's for sure. Perhaps that has something to do with it being an asset that gets smaller over time, as material is extracted? One thing that I think can hold a lot of miners P/Es back is the remaining Life Of Mine (LOM). The market is not going to rate you at 10x earnings if you only have a couple years ore left! Now, I know it's not proven, but 5-10m oz is decades worth of production, whichever way you slice it! The biggest mines didn't prove it all up all at once - they started as Condor is - with enough to make an economic mine, and then explored for more. We have lots of concessions to explore.

Personally, I would say that Calibre is undervalued, FWIW. 7-10 is the range I'm looking at, but maybe I'm just off-my-rocker optimistic again!

I think Nero and Simms are referring to the article from Master Invester which I posted. I haven't checked his calculations, perhaps you can find a flaw with them but he supposes, pessimistically as he states, twice the number of shares in issue as there is now.

https://masterinvestor.co.uk/commodities/master-investor-september-mining-update/

"Assuming, pessimistically that current shares in issue are doubled to meet a 30% (£38m) equity component of the capex, and again pessimistically that all loans are repaid over the first two years, CNR shareholders thereafter would see 35p cash per share flowing in annually for the next 7 years while the company proves up the rest of its large land-holdings towards its target of over 5Moz of gold reserves. By then Condor will have been well in the radar of the N American investors who rate gold producers much more highly than they do CNR now."