Member Info for ElectricLion

Don't get carried away Slippery. It's a placing, not the end of the world. Google showing 36.42p - a 6.6% drop, not 15. Buy, hold or sell, same choices as every other day. JM's prescence is not new news.

Interesting take, but not all that valid IMHO. First off, JM is not a charity, he'll get shares as cheap as he can, that's not exactly unreasonable, why would he pay more than 35p if he doesn't have to? Would you? Would anyone?

He doesn't however dictate the placing price, at least not directly. He isn't running the company, MC is. The largest factor in the price of any placing is going to be some variation of the VWAP over some period. Look at the recent SP - I'm afraid to say, it hasn't really been strong enough recently to support a placing an awful lot higher than this.

Also do note than JM only accounts for a quarter of the total number of new "units". Three-quarters have gone elsewhere. Where is anybodies guess, but some could have easily found their way into some IIs pockets.

Finally, to be frank, I think the market would be *more* concerned if JM *wasn't* involved. You may not like the level of control he has, but would Condor be where it is today without his continued contributions?

Kind of makes me wonder what the "real" placing price is. Let me explain what I mean. If a "unit" is 35p and consists of an ordinary share and half a warrant at 50p, we can make some sort of guess at the value of the 50% of the 50p warrant and take that off the stated placing price to arrive at some sort of value of the remaining ordinary share, which you could consider to be the real placing price. I have a feeling there's probably a standard industry way of valuing options which can probably be extended to warrants. I don't know what that is, so I'll just go for gut feel - I would say that the value today of a whole 50p warrant has to be 5p absolute minimum, maybe closer to 10. It's risk-free, and could surely be sold for a 20% profit at 60p within 2 years, most likely much more. That would make the "real" placing price for the remaining ordinary share 2.5-5p lower than the stated price per unit. Just something to think about.

Appreciate you're new here, and this is probably a drive-by, but no, doesn't look like it. JM has a good chunk of course, but perhaps not as big a chunk as I might have expected. I think most here would actually be happier if the others, particularly MC had actually taken more. 15K shares is not exactly breaking the bank is it MC?!

Not ecstatic to see the return of warrants TBH. Big placings at a lowish price are bad enough but a whole additional chunk of dilution to come later is rubbing salt in the wound. Maybe it's the only way to get large placings away these days, who knows. At least they're at 50p.

That article rather makes it sound like there's not much the US can actually do that will get any closer to achieving their aims. The Ortega administration seems committed to their course now regardless. There are already a variety of sanctions on individuals. Anything wider reaching will, in all liklihood, mostly hit the citizens of Nicaragua rather than the administration and will push the administration closer to Russia and other influential states and groups. The US could very easily end up making things worse rather than better (crazy talk I know.)

As far as I can see, the best way to tackle the situation is to bide your time. Danial Ortega is 75. Rosario Murillo is 70. They won't last forever. The next generation is crucial. If I was the US, I would be reaching out through diplomatic channels to anyone who looks like they might have a role in the next government. It needs a carrot and stick approach, not just stick. Emphasis the advantages, to both the country and that individual, of playing by the rules of democracy and the disadvantages of continuing down the current path. Not an easy task, and it might work or it might not, but that seems to me like one of the few ways to effectively tackle the situation, over the slightly longer term.

I think there is an important distinction to be made between what MC thinks is an issue and what investors think is an issue. It seems quite clear that investers think it is an issue, and so, almost by definition, it is an issue, even if it is also true that it is actually quite easy to obtain the remaining land, and so "not an issue" for MC or the project.

Another question to ponder - what SP do you think we could achieve at $2000/oz+, elections clear with no trouble, toll deal with Calibre, 100% land bought, dilution question clarified and a few good drill results thrown in for good measure? That *could* all happen by end of Q1 next year. Any takeover price would have to be well above your guess for SP in that scenario, just for starters.

I think MC has always wanted to sell, but only at the right price, and his and JM's opinion of the fair price has evidently been higher than any suitor thus far. In general, most acquisitions go through at only a modest premium to the prevailing SP, and I think that would not be satisfactory for MC, JM or most LTHs. We can't just sit around twiddling our thumbs waiting for a white knight to come galloping over the hill, so we press on towards production. The price MC and JM will accept is only likely to rise the more time, effort and money we spend on the project, the more derisked it is and the less time until we're actually pulling gold out of the ground.

Everyone's ideas of timeframes differ, depending on their circumstances, exposure and strategy, but I think we've gone this far, we may as well get it into production, unless an offer we can't refuse pops up. I don't think MC is actively seeking buyers at this point, but one may come along none-the-less. A offer we can't refuse, would surely have to be well North of £1 a share though, amd maybe not even then. 5-10m oz of gold and heading towards 200k oz production a year is worth a heck of a lot to someone. Only question is, will it be us, or someone else.

First Majestic think we're cheap at 50p a share. That's a big vote of confidence. Will be very interesting to see if they put more money in over the coming months.

LSE has the UT at 38p. The 38.9p trade looks like a late reported buy. Couple of other chunky buys too by the looks of it. Probably optimistic to think we could be back in the 40s tomorrow, but it would be nice wouldn't it!

Good info. Thanks.

I think that would be foolhardy TBH. Would probably void the warranty for starters. A breakage would be more costly than the extra few percent you'd gain. I imagine we might even be able to sell on the old motor to recoup some of the costs of the new one. Presumably there would need to be some stoppage time to allow the new motor to be fitted, although needless to say, all parties would want that window to be as short as possible.

I guess "motor" is shorthand for a whole package. Like if you put a more powerful engine in a car, you'd probably also put in a stronger transmission, gearbox etc. Then a warranty and service contract on top as well. If it was a rounding error like £20K (compared to the price of the mill), then the manufacturer probably wouldn't bother offering a choice of motors in the first place.

Not sure I completely understand the question. The mill comes with a motor. We can put in a bigger motor at additional cost for around 20% more throughput. MC doesn't want to spend more money than necessary up front, so we won't go for the larger motor from day 1. I imagine we'd upgrade the motor out of cashflow once in production.

Bear in mind Calibre shareholders were heavily diluted to raise the funds to buy B2's mines. As a result, the SP performance isn't anywhere near as impressive as the MCap increase.

I think MC has mentioned finance in Q1 next year rather than Q2. If so, that brings your estimate in by a quarter. Otherwise seems fair. Possible for construction to take a bit less, but probably not a lot less. Then there'll be maybe a quarter to ramp up to full commercial production from first pour.

This video is a couple weeks old, so many of you will have seen it before, but I've only just got around to watching it. Nice to see a couple new slides being presented and I found the site plan animation quite compelling. Makes it seem more real somehow. Worth checking out if you haven't seen it yet.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HxyRwRqffi0

"BS!" is not an argument.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ohDB5gbtaEQ

I haven't got time to keep up with dozens of shares, so I prefer a concentrated portfolio. At current prices, it's something like 31% HZM, 22% CNR, 15% THX, 12% GRL, 10% WSBN, 6% KEFI. I try to keep 5%-10% in cash for trading opportunities.

I can't speak for Khan specifically, but a lot or a little is all relative. Some people are rich and can afford to gamble ten grand, or a hundred here or there without risking the bulk of their portfolio. I think it's more useful to talk about portfolio percentages. FWIW, I have 10% of of my stock portfolio in here. Enough to make a difference if it multibags but not so much that I'd be crying myself to sleep every night for weeks if it doesn't work out.

Last fundraise didn't have any warrants attached, which was a welcome break from what had become the norm. I don't think MC likes them any more than we do, but was led to believe, rightly or wrongly, that they would attract Canadian investors like Ross Beaty. That hasn't really been borne out, so I'm hopeful that we've seen that back of them (warrants, not Canadians!)

FM also took shares at 50p as part-payment for the mill, which was above market price at the time, so that's was effectively a raise at a premium to the VWAP.

I think the SP could turn back up relatively rapidly if gold looks to stay strongish and the elections don't bring any new trouble, so timing the raise could be quite important to optimise the price, assuming we're not actually running on fumes yet.