Member Info for ElectricLion

Are options included in the reported total number of issued shares?

I have always calculated fully diluted number of shares as "total outstanding plus options plus warrants", but this part of the RNS makes me think that might be wrong:

"Following the grant of the 2021 Options outlined above, the total share options outstanding will represent 11.5% of the 134,824,179 ordinary shares in issue."

That sounds like the number of options are already included in the total number of shares. Anyone know for sure?

Appreciate you're just defending your right to continually (somewhat smugly) post crypto on a gold mining board (do you promote gold or CNR on any crypto boards I wonder?), but anyone can cherry-pick timescales to prove anything they want. Personally, I went in big (for me) at 19p...

In any case, clearly you must think there's some reason to be here now or you wouldn't be here yourself. Don't throw the baby out with the bathwater simply in an attempt to win an argument.

I'm definately gonna start filtering those who seem to be unwilling or unable to stop themselves talking about crypto. It's not that those posters don't also on occasion say something relevent, but quite frankly, I'm a busy man and I only have a certain number of minutes out of my day to dedicate to reading LSE posts, and those that I do read, I want to have been worth the effort. If LSE provided more fine-grained filtering - like filter any post with the word "bitcoin" in, then I'd do that, but if the only tool that LSE provides is to filter everything by a poster, then I'll have to start doing that. I come to this board to see Condor and related topic discussion. End of.

I think the term "store of value" is often misunderstood or misused. It doesn't necessarily mean that it will appreciate in value vs. some other asset or currency. What it means it that it's value should remain roughly constant (compared to some tangible asset, like a loaf of bread, a house, or a nice suit), over time, and I'm not talking months, or years, I'm taking decades at the very least and hundreds really. So what you're actually looking for in a "store of value" is stability and longevity. If it can appreciate against other assets then that's the icing on the cake, but that's not really the point.

Bitcoin, or any other crypto, could *both* double *and* halve before gold does either. Can you make money on it? Absolutely. Is it a store of value? No, I wouldn't say so. It'll be a long, long time before old money invests much into crypto, with the intention of passing value down the generations, rather than gold or property or a balanced stock portfolio.

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20110819005774/en/History-Shows-Price-of-an-Ounce-of-Gold-Equals-Price-of-a-Decent-Mens-Suit-Says-Sionna-Investment-Managers

I would agree Seingred that you could say that there is a bit of sleight of hand going on! We seem to be telling the government that we've started construction, and then waiting to see if they complain even though we haven't actually fulfilled all the terms of the permit. That said, if we are to believe MC that the government wants the mine, which does appear to be the case, then maybe the small print matters less than firm evidence of committment and progress - which the site clearance and SAG mill purchase point to. Could it be that we might actually benefit from being in a "frontier" jurisdiction? A "safer" jurisdiction would surely want all the i's dotted and the t's crossed before being allowed to proceed. Maybe that's less important in Nicaragua than it would be in Canada or Australia...

That sounds good AF, and fits my own speculation. How did you come by that info though may I ask? Did I miss something in some interview, or have you been communicating with Condor directly?

I don't think any of us know exactly what's in the permits, but I think it's quite possible we won't need an extension, as we'll already have been considered to have "started construction". There's been lots of speculation about what qualifies, do we need 100% of the land etc, but I suspect the government really just want to see tangible progress. Site clearance and the SAG mill delivery might be sufficient.

We'll have to agree to disagree on that aspect jdj2! However, he has been a staunch supporter of this company, which is what counts, as far as our investment here goes. In any case, we don't get to choose billionaires! We should probably be thankful we have at least one! I think/hope that we'd be strong enough to cope with zero these days, but a few years ago, might have been a different story without JM's support. IIRC, he did buy a chunk off of City Financial.

I don't have a "side" in this, I really don't, but you just said you didn't insult him, immmediately followed by an insult! Piqued my (possibly dark and/or dry) sense of humour! lol

On a general note, think a few people on this board could do with toning down the aggression a bit. We've all had a bit of a slap in the face financially, even if it's only temporay, there's no need to add insult to injury by ripping chunks out of each other behind the safety of our screens.

You can't trust the buy/sell indicators. The stock market does not publish this information, and so sites like this one guess, based on the trade price vs. the spread at the time. It's often wrong/misleading. Unfortunately in this case, the SP direction is a truer indicator of buys vs. sells.

So... they revised it from 3.6p to 3.58p? That's not exactly a "steep downward revision" is it? In any case, who cares? Not exactly a predictable large blue-chip stock is it?

Seingred. Look at slides 24 and 25 of http://www.condorgold.com/sites/default/files/presentations/Condor%20World%20Gold%20Forum%2013-15%20April%202021.pdf

Every gold miner on the planet now will have similar slides on their presentations.

Times change, slowly, but they change. They need to. The entire human race is screwed if we collectively continue to chase profit no matter the cost. That's all I'll say on the matter.

Crypto... there's more to the debate than just profit. If that's all you care about then fine, but there are real concerns about the whole concept. Just ask Charlie Munger.

As Seingred rightly says, PUR were upwards of 170p a share in December 2020. If you take that fact, and combine it with your view tester that they're worth buying now, then the read-across for CNR is rather more positive than either of you are making out.

Any asset other than crypto that went from $200 to $3500 in a year, you'd be thinking, humm, maybe this is a bubble, might be a good idea to cash in some of my gainz. Maybe crypto is different, time will tell.

No amount of experience will conjure gold from a rock if it isn't there to begin with. Condor has high-grades, near surface. To quote from the recent RNS:

· 22.05 m (21.6 m true width) at 6.48 g/t gold from 24.75 m drill depth including 15.35 m (15.0 m true width) at 8.68 g/t gold from 24.75 m drilled depth (drill hole LIDC413).

· 16.00 m (15.7 m true width) at 5.30 g/t gold from 18.35 m drill depth, including 5.90 m (5.8 m true width) at 12.35 g/t gold from 22.10 m drilled depth (drill hole LIDC416).

I'd wager that'll get you better than $690/oz to begin with. Grade will reduce and costs will rise for the bulk of the open pit, but I'd guess that the AISC for CNR will start off low and then rise (assuming more high-grade ares are not located, which seems unlikely).

The conversation becomes boring. I haven't looked into this other company in detail, nor am I inclined to merely to counter every single piece of misery you put forth on this board. Suprised you spend so much time here TBH. I'm more inclined to post on the boards where I have investments I believe in, but each to their own.

Do actually look at that slide though, with an open mind, not one merely trying to find the negatives for Condor. Year 1 - 50k oz, circa $1200/oz AISC. Year 2 - 55k oz or so, $1050/oz or so. The graph isn't meant for reading precise numbers off of, so my numbers are rough as well, but you get the idea. Year 3 - 75k oz, but AISC jumping to nearly $1400/oz. You get my drift? It takes a while before the lower (still higher than Condor) AISC numbers kick in.

Regarding Condor's valuation, I have set out my logic on the board several times. Feel free to dispte my numbers or logic if you like. As far as the elapsed time goes, everyone has their own take on that, but not everyone is as obsessed with time as you are. Some of us are still young! lol

Obviously the majority of those currently invested may be inclined to take a glass half-full view when it comes to our prospects here. That being said, Seingred, I think you're starting to lean too far the other way. You consistently ignore the bottom line - it's not oz's per year that count. It's profit.

I won't argue every point, but take a look at the AISC predictions throughout the life of the Columbia mine on page 7 of Aris' corporate presentation here: https://s27.q4cdn.com/150190369/files/doc_presentation/2021/Aris-Gold-corporate-presentation-19-April-2021.pdf

I think she started it to be fair. Not been seen since. Probably on a new account.

A few thoughts, directed at no-one in particular...

- The past is the past. Looking forward, not back is a healthy way to approach life in general.
- We all seem to broadly agree than CNR should be worth a few times the current SP, at some point.
- book5 on ADVFN seems to have a contact at Calibre. Best to read his comments for yourself and make up your own mind.
- Completing the land purchases should be a significant catalyst that could land at any time.

Don't forget, once the company is taken over, that's it, forever. If the buyer subsequently turns it into a 5m oz+ district producing >200k oz a year, then you've missed that opportunity, forever.

You can always take a stake in the purchaser of course, but they may, for whatever reason, already be highly-valued, or their other assets may perform poorly or whatever.

Most takeovers are done at only a modest premium over prevailing SP. But in our case, that wouldn't be enough. It's simply worth more than that, whether you look at the gold in the ground or on a production P/E basis. So I suspect we may be at a bit of an impasse on takeovers right now. Not everyone here now will stick around to full production, but MC and JM likely will. I've set out my calcs before, but the TL;DR version is that £2 a share is cheap for ~120k oz production, at the current gold price. So they won't be selling out cheap voluntarily. And they probably have enough shares between them to fight off a hostile takeover at a derisory price like 80p. For better or worse. For the record, I also wouldn't be selling my shares for 80p.