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More likely several jittery PI sellers than one big seller FWIW ISA. If you see regular large (50K+) share sells coming through, then maybe one big one, but the trades suggest it's just the usual PI churn IMHO.

Quite a rant. Touched a nerve evidently. Anyway, you don't know me, my situation, my strategy or even my average, so a few less assumptions of your own might be in order. My last post on the subject.

I assume that's a rhetorical question Seingred? If not, I don't know. I suppose you're hoping for a raise so you'll have another opportunity to say I told you so? But I don't think I ever said there wouldn't be one. So whatever. A company that doesn't make money needs to raise money from the market sometimes. What an insight. Right or wrong, your need for attention is tiresome.

What I would say is that cash-burn is likely to have been cut to an absolute minimum, whatever that may be.

The "tyre-kicking" may be ongoing. These things take time.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/ghana-working-plan-buy-oil-with-gold-rather-than-usd-vp-2022-11-24/

Bearing in mind the 'P' in NPV stands for 'present', they don't take into account the additional 8 (?) m oz or so in the district, and to be honest, I don't know how to value that. At this point, I'm personally pretty confident that it's there, it's just a question of what a buyer will pay for it. You can make arguments either way - clearly it won't be valued as if it was 'proved' to whatever level of confidence you think appropriate. OTOH, if no value is attributed to it at all, then the buyer is getting it all for 'free' (in which case, Condor should keep it). You'd probably have to be a geologist to get an idea of it's value, and possibly privy to information we simply don't have. Whatever it ends up being, that ought, all else being equal, to be on top of an NPV-based valuation.

With respect Willowman, I am not wrong (about MC at any rate!), since, if you look closely, you will find I have said very little about him one way or another. What I would say at this juncture is that judging him today may be premature. If, purely for argument's sake, he was to return to you, one way or another, £1 per share you hold, before Christmas, would you judge him so harshly then? I assume not, so let's wait a little while longer to see how this ends before sharpening the knives.

willowman, Punter and the other MC-haters - if you feel that way, then you should have sold up years ago. It is categorically *not* MC's fault that you didn't press the 'sell' button. Perhaps acknowledge, as Connect1 has already done, to his credit, the responsibility you must bear for your own actions.

Thanks. Makes sense. Fingers crossed.

What do you think the company would do with the money GoldmanBaby? A special dividend, or would the company hold onto it for some purpose?

Initially I had wondered if Mestiza (for example) could be sold to fund development of La India. Doesn't sound like that's what is being aimed for here, but I do wonder how this'll work in practice, and if all company assets are sold, what happens to the cash-rich shell that remains?

I think we won't hear any concrete numbers until it's essentially all agreed. This will be stage-managed behind the scenes and we'll be the last to know. That means no low-ball speculative offers, I think we're past that point. It's serious now, no playing games.

If it's an asset sale, and not the whole company, I don't think we PIs have even the slightest way of valuing each piece separetly. Not sure how the proceeds would be distributed either. I'm not altogether certain if we'll even get a vote. We should. We may. But I'm not absolutely certain we will.

Don't dismiss the district potential. The buyer won't. Their geological experts will talk to our experts and come up with their own estimates and confidence levels. Just because it's not proved to measured standards, does not in any way mean it's worthless.

So you're not looking at a 2m oz project mined over 7-8 years as per the BFS, which as MC has stated many times, is a 'base case' - you're looking at a project potentially much bigger than that, with a multi-decade mine life, but needless to say, the actual price a buyer will pay for that will be discounted, possibly quite heavily, due to the uncertainty.

All that makes it difficult to even guess at a final price. The market is not good, the sanctions don't help, but this is a big project that'll make someone a lot of money one day. Assuming the whole company gets sold, and therefore that we'll get a vote, it'll need to be a price that MC, JM and a least a few other holders wil go for, to get the 50%+ of shareholder votes. So not 30p. Probably that range starts at 50p. I'll go for 60p personally, but with healthy error bars both sides of that number.

I'd be very suprised if there wasn't something pretty well advanced already. He's been mentioning there's been some interest over the last few months, likely RT, but we don't know for sure. I can't see that you'd put out an RNS like that without anything at all to back it up. The Hannam appointment is likely the beginning of the end of the process - to flush out any other interested parties, and to start the paperwork rolling.

Not interested in an argument ISA - it clearly bothers you, so do what's right for you.

There's another saying though - 'buy low, sell high'...

Who knows ISA. Does it matter though? Probably not. You're a bit too fixated on the minutiae TBH. CNR has always been illiquid, and most of the trades that there are are PI trades, and PIs are fickle, impatient, and most of them lose money over the long-term. So if a few want to offload today, so be it. Doesn't bother me frankly.

One thing is for sure, assuming a sale goes through (far from a certainty, but they wouldn't be putting out this RNS unless they already had something in the pipeline IMO) it'll be a healthy double-digit premium to today's price, at an absolute minimum. Regardless of one's average, it makes CNR a slam-dunk strong buy right now.

I think there's a bit of a logical fallacy going on here - themarket valuation of a company today is not the same as the price a buyer would need to pay to acquire that company.

Could someone actually *buy* Calibre for £210m? Well, no - Calibre's management wouldn't go for it as they presumably, (and correctly IMO), think that valuation would be too low. They would only sell at that price if they secretly thought that the business was currently *overvalued* by the market. Calibre's shareholders wouldn't go for it either - if there's no premium, why would they part with their shares at the same price they could simply sell them in the market?

So in order to actually buy a company, you must offer a sufficient premium to get the current holders to actually part with their shares. The size of that premium is the real question. Most takeovers are at a relatively small premium, 20%, say, but there are many factors to consider - life of mine, gold price projections, exploration potential, etc. Can't see JM/MC selling out for 20% over the current price, can you?

Worth noting that Shanta's bids have come to naught (for now). Read into that whatever you like.
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/998259/shanta-gold-said-rejected-bids-did-not-reflect-value-of-the-business-998259.html

Perhaps this would be a good time to mention that I doubled my money buying at these levels last time - at a time when the market wasn't interested, but when it was extremely predictable that the market would get interested in just a few short months - and the setup is virtually identical now, except that the next rise on anticipation may actually coincide with the drilling results, unlike last time. Easy 50-100% in a few months, and that's before results. If that's too long for you to wait, for such a piddling return, then you must have an enviable record elsewhere.

I *think* bankrupty is taking the mickey, but it's hard to be sure these days - the lunatics have taken over the asylum. Watcher is a lost cause, and contributes nothing worthwhile to the board in any case. The filter button is the best solution IMO.

In extremely tangentially relevent news (which is to say, more relevent than most of the posts at the moment) - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63657350

cf, I'm reminded of the Warren Buffett quote - price is what you pay, value is what you get. Obviously to make a profit, you need the right combination, but I think potential acquirers will be more interested in the value they can extract over the life of the mine, than in the MCap/SP of Condor today. That value varies depending on how much gold we have and the gold price itself, amongst other things, but I hope we can all agree that it will be much greater than the MCap today. The price today matters if raising funds, yes absolutely, and MC will do that only if he has to. It's not exactly a secret that he wants to sell though. And when all's said and done, he won't endorse a sale unless it's at the right price.

I don't hold VLRM. I know nothing about them.

I would merely observe that you a.) describe VLRM as a quote "mug-magnet" unquote, and b.) that you have 77 posts over there in the last 30 days. So what does that make you?