Member Info for ElectricLion

http://www.24hgold.com/english/news-gold-silver-the-second-best-time-to-buy-mining-stocks.aspx?article=994240570G10020&contributor=Investing+in+Mining+Stocks

I agree. I've thought that might be a possibility ever since Rio got involved with Calibre. Jurisdictional risk is significantly ameliorated if you're a diversified international miner. That said, they probably have many such "feelers" out across the globe and probably only a few go "all the way", so to speak.

I think you may have unwittingly provided unbiased readers with an indication of how seriously they ought to take your assertions. You'll prove me wrong based on factual evidence? O Rly? Does your interest in facts extend to checking someone's posting history before accusing them of goodness knows what? Evidentally not. A ramper, moi? You're having a laugh right? Anyone can check my posting history and make up their own minds on that score.

What may or may not be true is something we will only find out in the future, but it is quite clear that you are far, far more biased in this matter than I am.

New TW Bearcast up. 10.50 is the timestamp you want. He's not too worried. He is scathing about those who sell and buy according to what they read on bulletin boards.

If these rumours do prove to be false then I think the authorities need to take a good look at some of today's posts to decide whether they are actionable. Reporting rumours is one thing, but some of the doomsday posts today have potentially crossed a very serious line that ought to be investigated.

If the rumours are true then obviously it's a big blow, but there's still the Saudi assets, so to say that the company is dead without TK is also false.

You do go on about it quite a lot, but as you correctly point out, it doesn't matter what you, or I, or 888 think. Overblown in my view. Sanctions on Nicaraguan leaders and state-owned companies are not the same as some blanket ban on any and all business in the country. The last thing the US wants is an actual failed state on it's doorstep.

Regarding Russia, Ortega really ought to be wise enough to keep his head down. Supporting Russia is hardly going to go down well internationally in the current circumstances, regardless of his, or anyone else's, political views. But you really think Russia has any time, or money, or arms, or men for Nicaragua, when they seem to have bitten off more than they can chew on their own front doorstep? They have nukes that can reach the US already, and if they choose to use them, we're all screwed bad enough that I'm really not going to care about my Condor investment any more! What else do you think they're actually going to do? It's not the 70s any more, and Russia isn't the USSR any more.

Funders will assess the risks and offer a deal accordingly. Short of all-out war, I don't really see a scenario whereby lenders en-masse would refuse to lend at all, but the terms and conditions may suffer. Having a low CapEx and quick payback helps. Mines get built in worse parts of the world. If all else fails, JM could have a whip round his local pub and fund it out of spare change.

Condor needs to execute on it's plan. Aside from the macro conditions, the reason the SP is down here is because we've had upwards of 6 months with no meaty news to go on. Get the BFS across the line (it'd better be early Q3 or I'm going to start getting cross), and I think the finance deal, whatever it may be, should follow on quite quickly. Get the equipment ordered, get a real, meaningful timeline to production to go on, and then, barring disasters, the geopoliticals should mostly fade into the background.

Are you reducing your Calibre position?

Do something else ISA, honestly, it'll probably help your mood. Not a great stock for day-trading due to liquidity and spread, so not much to be gained by obsessing over it quite as much.

I don't think anyone here knows, and that is a bit concerning. However, the real question is whether it has delayed financing/construction/production. MC did say that financing options were already being looked at. I don't see any reason why he couldn't arrange a financing deal in principle - much like a mortgage in principle - that could be finalised very quickly once the concrete numbers from the BFS are known. We may or may not ever get any further details about who's been 'in the data room', but that must also be a factor, regardless of whether they choose to take things further or not.

It's all taking rather a long time to put it mildly, yes. But then these things tend to, particularly when trying to conserve capital. That's why, as an investor, you want to have a strategy, whatever that may be. Long-term, short-term, HODL'ing, trading, whatever. Takes some of the emotion out of it. Today is no different than any other day as far as the project is concerned, and some of your gripes go back years, so why choose today of all days to sell, except as an emotional response to the extremely predictable placing and corresponding SP drop? The SP could fall further of course, who knows, but on the facts available today, I'm not sure it's the right choice made for the right reasons. Personally, I'm in it for the Lassonde Curve, with a chance of a takeover. Whether you think that's the right strategy or not, at least it means my emotions aren't a slave to the whims of the day-to-day SP.

ISA, you're panicking, and since you're doing it today, it can really only be because of the placing, which was entirely predictable, since we had no money!

You seemed quite happy to trade for a few percentage points at a time at ~30p. Now it's dropped considerably, you're selling rather than buying? Sounds like penny-wise, pound-foolish to me.

Those such as yourself are the main reason the SP has dropped. I think these two facts may be related - "That's why I can buy 100k shares at 26.7p now" and "I have already sold loads today".

It's fair enough selling because of the uncertainty, I absolutely understand that. But that uncertainty was the same yesterday and the day before that.

Incidentally, look at the performance of just about anything else over the last few days. It's a tough time.

Regardless, it is what it is. Stick or twist, as always. At least we've got that placing out of the way. Fingers crossed for some actual news soon.

A 28p raise given where the SP has been is not bad. Some were thinking it would be 25p. Naturally we'd all like the SP to have been higher in the first place, but it wasn't to be. It's also a relatively small sum in the grand scheme of things. Warrents stick in the throat a bit as usual, but it is what it is. We were running on fumes so it's not exactly unexpected.

Could really do with some real clarity over the next steps, not just the usual hand-waving. What and when? Project roadmap. Milestones. Green ticks when each stage complete. That sort of thing. Is that too much to ask?

This was my previous post on this subject, FWIW.

"That article rather makes it sound like there's not much the US can actually do that will get any closer to achieving their aims. The Ortega administration seems committed to their course now regardless. There are already a variety of sanctions on individuals. Anything wider reaching will, in all liklihood, mostly hit the citizens of Nicaragua rather than the administration and will push the administration closer to Russia and other influential states and groups. The US could very easily end up making things worse rather than better (crazy talk I know.)

As far as I can see, the best way to tackle the situation is to bide your time. Danial Ortega is 75. Rosario Murillo is 70. They won't last forever. The next generation is crucial. If I was the US, I would be reaching out through diplomatic channels to anyone who looks like they might have a role in the next government. It needs a carrot and stick approach, not just stick. Emphasis the advantages, to both the country and that individual, of playing by the rules of democracy and the disadvantages of continuing down the current path. Not an easy task, and it might work or it might not, but that seems to me like one of the few ways to effectively tackle the situation, over the slightly longer term."

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/nicaragua-quietly-seeks-re-engage-with-us-sources-2022-05-05/

Some time ago I mused that while the current Nic administration seemed to be, for better or worse, committed to it's course, that the next generation may not hold the same old views. Ortega senior isn't getting any younger. An orderly transition after he is no longer with us would obviously be critical, but once the dust has settled, things may improve.

I wouldn't get my news from ZH for starters! Each to their own though! It's been mentioned on here recently - it is I believe an existing arrangement which also allows for exercises by other countries, including the US. Perhaps not particularly palateable in the current political environment, but also nothing new as far as I know. In any case, Russia has it's hands full at the moment, I can't see Nicaragua being high on it's list of priorities in any way!

My mind is a bit boggled by someone putting their hard-earned into *any* investment when they have such a loose grasp of the basics. Just because the online execution-only platforms have made it easy for anyone to buy any share, does not mean that everyone ought to do so.

I find the WSBN conversation a little amusing I must confess. You could have doubled your money on WSBN in the last 3 months. Maybe another 50% on offer before the drill results even arrive, thanks in part to that 'blind unresearched ramping'. But a profit is a profit, no matter how it's earned. Best to keep an open mind.

Past performance is not an indication of future performance. On the other hand, while history doesn't repeat itself, it often rhymes!

WSBN, yes still in. Hype train will take it a bit further in the run up to drilling results I reckon.

Seingred, your valuations come with as many assumptions as anyone else's, and who is to say which assumptions may actually come to pass.

For example:

You own Calibre shares, correct? Logically therefore you must think they are undervalued. Therefore any comparison based on Calibre's current value implies a corresponding undervaluation.

Calibre's share price is down 42% over 12 months, (a little worse than Condor's). Why? What does it imply for your comparison if their SP recovers to previous highs? Is anything preventing that scenario, other than the general market conditions of course?

We know MC hates dilution as much as we do. Now, you can't make an omlette without breaking some eggs, but what if MC achieves financing without significant dilution? How does that change things?

What MCap do you think Calibre might achieve valued at $2500 gold? What does that imply for your comparison?

I appreciate where you're coming from, and there's a lot to be said for using conservative inputs to arrive at your valuation, but that does mean that your valuation is therefore itself conservative, and to accuse other valuations as 'waccy', simply because they are different to your own is a little unfair.

Couple more thoughts...

First Majestic are also aware of our existence. They were quite happy to take shares at 50p for part payment of the mill we bought from them.

Just for a moment, let's entertain the idea of a 50 buyout. That's a 56% gain. I know every PI on AIM is after the next 10-bagger, but seriously, if you think 50%+ is not worth bothering with, then you must have an enviable record elsewhere.

The BoD will not approve a sale for 50p a share, simple as that. The number of shares MC and JM hold make a hostile takeover at that price very unlikely to succeed too, so that argument is almost entirely moot.

Just one of their reasons for not selling at that price is that they are very confident that we have more gold than we have currently proved up. Now we can't expect a purchaser to just take their word for it, but equally, it affects the price the BoD, and we as shareholders, would accept. 5-10m oz multiplied by whatever price per oz is a lot different from 2.4m oz multiplied by that same price. You *could* justify a higher per ounce price for a smaller resource *if* you had sufficient confidence that there was 2-4 times more gold down there...

We know that JM is also very bullish on the gold price. Whether he's right or wrong is almost beside the point. If he thinks that gold is going to $2000, $2500, $3000 or higher over the next few years, then once again he's not going to sell for 50p a share now.

Ever since Rio Tinto got involved with Calibre, I've had the view that their endgame might be to buy up Calibre, and us and Mako and consolidate the entire Nic gold production, so that's another scenario that may play out in time.

Industry standard would be something like 70% to 30% equity. I would expect a better (less equity) ratio for smaller loans and quicker payback. I also expect MC to bend over backwards to find the least dilutive option, and I hope that with his finance background and JMs clout and contacts, he will be able to achieve the best possible (least dilutive) arrangement. That's part of my investment case here, FWIW.

That's assuming no left-field developments involving JVs or selling licenses, or something like that. Which is quite possible, but we really don't have any information to go on in that regard.

BFS Q3, but financing being looked at now.
99.6 of "core areas". I don't think I've seen this phrase before. Is that comparable to previous % numbers?
400K cash at 31/3. Must be running on fumes now.

I wasn't expecting any new news at the AGM, but while I remain positive in the long run, we could really use some clarity at this point. Simple question - why will the BFS be more than a quarter late?