Member Info for ElectricLion

Given that we've risen ~10% over the last 2 weeks, I'd be suprised if it was a sell. I would have expected mid-twenties if it was. Impossible to tell for sure though.

Yes, Condor are not going bankrupt. Crushing debt is usually what kills companies in that way. MC can always issue more shares if he has to, not that we or he wants to.

Toll milling remains a mystery. The in-fill drilling at La Mestiza may have something to do with it. It's possible it is all agreed in principle, but with pre-requisites. Perhaps the BFS will unlock it. Who knows.

That's exactly what the bigger players actually do - they're more interested in reducing risk than minimising aquisition cost. Maybe the two end up being the same, if you're averaging it over many acquisitions.

The way to reduce risk is to wait for all the permits to be granted, wait for the land to be bought, wait for the BFS, maybe wait until finance is obtained, maybe even wait until production start. Yes they'd be paying more then, but they also save themselves the risk of buying a dud.

Or maybe they'd quite like to see CNR go bankrupt so they can step in and take it over for a song. Or maybe we just haven't risen to the top of their priority list yet.

It's far from a dead cert of course, for all sorts of reasons, and personally I'd quite like to go into production, but I don't think the argument that it hasn't happened yet, so it won't happen really applies.

Well unless they're planning to take us over right now, which I don't think they are, then it's not their time and money - it's ours! If they take us over later, but before first pour, then the financing is already in place and construction will have begun - probably not worth cancelling it all. If they take us over after first pour, then it's all right there for them to use straight away. Exploring and permitting can take a lot of time and money too.

I think the biggest reason for Calibre not to acquire us would be too many eggs in one, let's put it diplomatically, 'frontier' jurisdiction. But as I said, the synergies may be too great to ignore regardless. That's something we can only guess at.

Thanks cf. I'm gonna put that in the category of 'possible, but unlikely', and all the more so for each extra oz. A 5m oz district ought to be able to support 200k oz production.

If it was me, I think I'd go with a modestly-sized plant at La India, but perhaps truck any excess ore to their existing mines, instead of enlarging the La India plant.

Coincidentally, that dovetails with what Condor plans to do anyway!

Just to temper expectations a little, bear in mind the BFS is a large and complicated document, years in the making. It's one of the most significant milestones in any wannabe mining company's life. Whether it comes this week, or next, or heaven forbid it's a week or two late, doesn't matter too much (to me anyway). Better to do it right than quick - the company's future literally depends on it.

I haven't done the calcs, but I suspect trucking 100k+ oz worth of ore per annum would be a challenge, even at high grade. That's a lot of trucks! Does anyone know how much they are trucking at the moment, and over what distance?

Of course Clive Johnson is going to say that! That's not the first time he's expressed such sentiments either IIRC. He, and any purchaser, wants as much as possible for as little as possible. Fair enough, but it takes 2 sides to make a deal. Hostile takeover's are relatively rare I believe, and potentially risky without the BoD on board to handle the transition smoothly.

Which brings me on to your question. I suspect many PIs would sell for 50p+ a share - the sentiment on here and on ADVFN is low at the moment, and many feel (wrongly) that they are "locked-in". It would probably be a relief to those for someone else to take that decision away from them, since they struggle to make it for themselves.

Whether there would be enough of those to outweigh MC and JM, as well as all the other shareholders who wish to hold out for more is another matter. I don't think there would be personally, but despite the incessent whinging, no serious challenge to MC's leadership has ever been made, so it's never been put to the test.

If CNR is one of their targets (I agree that further diversifying out of Nic might be wise, but at the same time, the synergies of merging Condor's deposit with their own operation may be too good to pass up), then they'd have to get their skates on to do it before the main financing, at which JM will presumably take another big chunk, further strengthening his hold on the company.

That doesn't tally with being "patient" either, so I think the financing will go ahead and construction will begin. A takeover offer may come before first pour though.

A few observations for further discussion and analysis:
- Discussion of nationalising copper and lithium mines in Chile can't be helping any miners in the country. I don't see this as a serious risk under Ortega in Nic. What happens after Ortega is anybody's guess (a whole topic on it's own).
- Grade is low as you say, interesting that they think they can still manage circa $1000/oz ASIC. I guess the gold must be quite easy to get at.
- At a quick glance, it looks to me that they don't have the main environmental permit in place yet, but are pushing ahead with construction anyway? Might be wrong on that, but if so, seems a bit presumptious/risky. Also suprised they could get funding without it.
- First gold production targetted for Q4 2022, approx 5 quarters from funding.
- Potential water issues?
- Eric Sprott owns 10%
- Will be very interesting to see how their SP behaves over the next few quarters.

I would guess most long term holders are not very interested in what you (or any other PI, myself included) has or hasn't done. They will also know that the price in 2 weeks time has very little bearing on anything, up or down! Point is the BFS leads to the construction funding and that marks a rather significant point on the Lassonde Curve. Google it if you haven't heard of it. That's before anyone says anything about toll deals or takeovers...

Sure, but that's always been the case, nothing's changed in that regard. If your own risk profile has changed then that's fair enough, but I don't think the risk itself has changed much.

I would also say that gold companies are pretty used to operating in dodgy parts of the world - they have to go where the gold is ultimately, and there's a lot of gold in dodgy places (or maybe most places are just a bit dodgy, lol).

I think it's just one more ingredient in the jurisdiction risk factor, I don't think it'll move the needle on it's own. I think if an acquirer or bank was willing to tolerate Ortega and his administration before, then the Russia connection probably wouldn't change their minds now. Russia has ties of one sort or another to a lot of the world including supplying a good part of Europe with gas, and (allegedly) asking China for arms, but that doesn't make those jurisdictions off-limits for investments. Not quite the same, but you see my point hopefully. Nic is already a bit dodgy, but IMO, the Russia connection doesn't make them significantly more dodgy than before.

Thanks nero. That makes sense. I just thought the funds raised might be ring-fenced somehow for only spending on actual construction. But I guess it's probably just a big chunk of money into CNR's bank account for them to spend as they see fit. Which makes me wonder if the loan is secured, and if so what with? What if MC spent it all on doing up his flat instead of the mine?! lol

Here's a question - does anyone know if the main construction financing will incorporate working capital requirements between when it is announced and cash flow beginning at start of production? If not, then regardless of whether there is one soon or not, there may still be a need for further fund raises right up to production... (assuming no toll deal - jury's (still) out on that).

Just seen a similar thread on another board. At the end of the day, gold equities are equities first, and the same forces that are sending gold up are sending equities down. That said, it will sort itself out in the end. This is exactly the sort of big picture that gold equities investers are looking for. Not hope for, exactly, because a scenario where gold does well, as we can begin to see, is not necessarily the scenario anyone actively wants more broadly - high inflation, wars, etc. But sticking your head in the sand won't change it, so best to be prepared, at least a little. Commodities will go up first, then the larger companies, then towards the later stages, a blow-off top and anything with 'Gold' in the name will multi-bag, just as anything with 'blockchain' in the name multi-bagged a year or two ago.

That's how the theory goes anyway. I haven't seen anything like this unfold in practice and in many ways, I'm not actually looking forward to it much, as the broader implications are sobering.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AztXuwd748k

AF - would you play poker with your hand face up on the table? If not, are you being disingenuous or dishonest?

He has to deal with many parties and priorities. I would rather he not reveal every detail of the land (non)-issues if there's even a chance it would hamper the negotiations.

Simms45, the lack of news is beginning to look almost suspicious. Maybe simply nothing (of note) is happening, maybe it's just lots of paperwork getting the BFS ready. But I wouldn't be suprised if more complex negotiations were taking place between us and Calibre.

What's your steel price source cambells? I'm looking at https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/steel

You can buy fire wood strudel. Provided you do it from sustainably managed forests - ie. they plant at least as many as they cut down, it's a lot closer to carbon neutral than fossil-fuel heating. The place you buy it from will store it while it dries. It's cheaper if you buy in bulk, but you can buy smaller amounts too if storage is a concern. Modern wood stoves are efficient and conform to all sorts of rules and regs regarding pollution. I haven't compared the cost per BTU to other heating, but I suspect it's competitive. You can probably tell I'm a fan! Bit more faff than just turning the thermostat up, may not want to be bothered if you're older, but worth the effort for me at the moment.

A few thoughts on that:
- MC has already mentioned going second-hand for some items. The prices for those parts may also be going up of course, but in general will still be less than existing brand new parts that are sitting in storage somewhere, which themselves may be less than the price to make more of those parts from scratch in the future.
- As far as CapEx is concerned oil price probably affects shipping mostly. Yes, there'll be a feed-through into just about everything eventually, as energy prices will feed through into the price of any manufactured goods, but it'll have the largest impact on OpEx (AISC) I would have thought. Under the circumstances, I'm inclined to worry about that when we get there! So long as there remains a good gap between AISC and the gold price, we'll be OK, whatever those 2 numbers actually are.
- The commodity we'll need the most of is steel, and that hasn't gone up as much as other things, yet.
- The finance deal is arguably more important than the CapEx. It all has to be paid for at some point of course, and so lower is better, but if (say) MC manages to secure an all-debt, zero-dilution solution, then I think we'd forgive a moderate increase in CapEx.
- That said, I accept an all-debt finance arrangement is probably unlikely, however don't forget MC and JM's background is in finance - that is one of my key reasons for investing here - while these guys haven't built a mine before, they do understand money, and I'm keeping my fingers crossed that will show in whatever finance deal is eventually assembled.