Member Info for ElectricLion

Ah, hadn't seen the RNS. 8.41am, funny old time to put out an RNS, but whatever. Anyone talking about March isn't really paying attention (or has their own agenda - decide for yourselves). For the results themselves, yes, not awe-inspiring, although this is exploration drilling - could easily have hit nothing but dirt. There is something there though, gold and copper, which is a good sign. Early days yet.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe that the stated range for results was Q1. Q1 starts in under 3 weeks. Those waiting until March may find the train has left by then...

Documents by post? The telephone? Crikey. What is this, the 20th century?! Anyhoo, III was all done online, so might want to consider switching your broker at some point if the old-school approach doesn't appeal.

What are you basing that observation on Awax? The buy/sell indicater on LSE can't be trusted. Although I haven't been doing dummy trades today, it looks to me from the trade execution prices that 16.25p trades are probably buys, with 16.11p and below sells.

I'd be a bit suprised if the directors could participate TBH. Supposedly there's half-a-dozen NDAs been signed already. Quite likely that they have access to price-sensitive information that we do not yet have.

Thing is, JAllis, there are always risks for any investment, and all the more so for an AIM-listed non-producing junior gold explorer/miner operating in Nicaragua! The question is, is the potential reward on offer worth the risk, and that is a judgement we must all make for ourselves. When's all said and done, my view is that the land will not prevent a sale occurring at higher than today's price, and that's good enoughh for me.

Any chance you can put the 'Onion Head' epithet to bed now please? It's getting annoying...

Thanks squeaky. In the end I decided I couldn't be bothered conversing with III, so have shifted things around on my own.

Deadline is the 15th I think.

A few months ago, gold was looking like it would test $1600 or below, now it's just peeped above $1800. Too late for Condor, or just in time?!

A little more nuance to it than that IMO. Like last time, this is likely to double or more due to FOMO before the results are announced...

If you're feeling exposed, wait until the anticipation starts building (along with the share price one hopes) and then aim to de-risk before the results actually hit. The timing could well be tricky, but the principle is sound.

Agree that the downside from here seems pretty limited though.

Might even be blocked - Condor is subject to the law of the UK after all...

The Russians can do one. We don't need to stoop that low.

"Everyone belongs to a tribe and underestimates how influential that tribe is on their thinking. There is little correlation between climate change denial and scientific literacy. But there is a strong correlation between climate change denial and political affiliation. That’s an extreme example, but everyone has views persuaded by identity over pure analysis.

There’s four parts to this:

Tribes are everywhere: Countries, states, parties, companies, industries, departments, investment styles, economic philosophies, religions, families, schools, majors, credentials, Twitter communities.

People are drawn to tribes because there’s comfort in knowing others understand your background and goals.

Tribes reduce the ability to challenge ideas or diversify your views because no one wants to lose support of the tribe.

Tribes are as self-interested as people, encouraging ideas and narratives that promote their survival. But they’re exponentially more influential than any single person. So tribes are very effective at promoting views that aren’t analytical or rational, and people loyal to their tribes are very poor at realizing it."

https://collabfund.com/blog/ideas-that-changed-my-life/

I can't tell the difference between loons and trolls any more. :-(

https://www.edisongroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/GoldStarsandBlackHoles_220119.pdf

squeaky19 - let me know what III say. In a similar position myself. I'm considering selling something else in my ISA and re-buying in my trading account to free-up funds in my ISA. Bit of a pain though.

Mesne - RNS on the 28th November states "The record date for the Open Offer is 1 December 2022". So if the record date is what I think it is, then I agree with you. Not an expert on these matters though. You could also try contacting Condorr to clarify the situation. If you didn't have the shares where you wanted on whatever date III end up using, you can still apply for excess shares, over your entitlement. There's no guarantee you'll get them, but I think it's probable that you would.

yes, iii have it

Or, you know, you guys could take responsibility for your own actions, instead of blaming everyone else. Just a thought.

Yes, indeed. Don't think I can do better DDD, so appreciate your calculations. There's just so many variables and intangibles to account for.

FWIW, my thoughts are - I think that Condor (or more accurately, it's assets) will be sold - my reading of the situation is that financing and constructing the mine ourselves is no longer an option (except in the very worst-case scenario where no-one at all is interested in our assets at any price, which I find hard to imagine - despite the challenges, the asset is a good one and will make someone a lot of money, and profitable gold mining takes place in plenty of worse places).

I'm sure that raising the funds would still be possible, but the dilution, risk and time to production would be significant. In any case, I think JM's made his mind up, and it seems that MC now has to fall in line like the rest of us. (The various insults I've seen are pointless and unecessary though.)

Not sure what happens once our assets are sold. I guess the company receives a chunk of cash, which will then be distributed to shareholders? Then what's left of the company could be dissolved entirely, or be left as a 'shell' for someone to use as a quick and easy way to an AIM stock market listing. I know such things happen in theory, but not sure of the practicalities. It will be a different company in all but name at that point anyway, so none of us are likely to care.

As far as valuations go, your calculations are I think the best any of us can do with the information we have. Against the risks, we have the district potential (which I think is underestimated in any NPV-based calculation, even though we have no real idea how much a buyer might pay for that). The BFS does reduce much of the uncertainty, so a high-ish per-ounce valuation seems legitimate to me. The total number of shares we will end up with is also rather uncertain at this point in time.

Besides those factors, we have no idea how many parties may be interested in what we have to offer. All else being equal, if there are multiple parties competing for our assets, a price could probably be realised that is well in excess of what could be attained if there was only one. Hannam and co. seem to be highly capable and experienced, so they should be able to get us the best deal that can be got.

"The Open Offer Shares have not been and are not intended to be registered or qualified for sale in any jurisdiction other than the United Kingdom. Accordingly, unless otherwise determined by the Company and effected by the Company in a lawful manner, the Application Form will not be sent to Shareholders with registered addresses in, or who are resident or located in the United States or any other Restricted Jurisdiction since to do so would require compliance with the relevant securities laws of that jurisdiction."

Sounds to me that First Majestic won't be able to participate, or Nic Milling Co. either.