Member Info for ElectricLion

60p was my guess at the start of this process. Emphasis on 'guess'. No-one here has anything like enough info to get much more accurate than a guess.

I applaud ddd for his efforts, I really do, but there's just not enough to go on to gain a high level of confidence in *any* outcome whatsoever. Seingred continually emphasisises the bear case, while ignoring the positives. Many other posters are driven more by emotions than logic, both to the upside and the downside, depending on the whims of the SP on any given day. ADVFN is largely a basket case. Many words written, but still not much closer.

In the abscence of further concrete info, I'll stick with 60p, but the actual value could fall some way above or below that number. Whether you think that's a good result or not is really entirely in the eye of the beholder. All I would say is that buying at this level is unlikely to lose you money, and those that loaded up at 15p should do pretty well whatever the outcome.

I've seen very few placings that don't cause a dip, so by saying you'll wait for a placing to exit, you seem to be saying you'll specifically wait for a dip to exit. It's your money though, do as you please.

It would be wiser to exit on a spike, rather than a dip... just sayin'

I'll admit that £1.50 seems like a stretch, but when considering the bull case, bear in mind...
a.) Calibre is an undervalued company in a (still, despite the gold price) undervalued sector. Using them as a benchmark for any read-across valuation implies a corresponding undervaluation.
b.) MCap is not the same as takeover price. Calibre wouldn't sell for their current MCap now would they?
c.) A couple of years to wait before production is may be a concern for PIs, but for companies, and Chinese ones in particular, it's nothing. We know from first-hand experience how long it can take to get to this stage of a mine. It may even be considered an advantage - they can have their own people on the ground from day 1, and design the plant to their own requirements.
d.) There simply aren't many assets like this available anywhere, for any price.
e.) The Chinese may consider this a strategic asset that they're willing to pay a premium for, just to grab it for themselves and keep it out of the hands of the West. (Chinese companies and the Chinese state are tied much closer together than in the West). Could the oft-mentioned geopolitical situation could even work to our advantage in this regard?

Nyota I believe, though that was before my time.

I understand it's more complicated, and therefore expensive, to open up a fundraising to PIs. Few companies do so. Implies nothing about HAA or KEFI either way.

Jittery PIs, scared of a placing, have given the MMs some stock over the last few days. My guess is that most of those who were inclined to sell have now done so, but the overhang needs to be burnt off before the SP will move.

Polo:

On 17th March (Friday) you posted this:
"For a new investor, this entry point has lots of upside, potentially more than a triple bagger, more like 4x investment."

On 21st March (Tuesday, Today) you posted:
"I decided not to hang around for long. Nice trade for Polo, but too many unknowns for a long term holding."

Nothing personal, but I won't be paying much attention to anything you say in the future, one way or the other.

Despite all that has gone before, it seems to me that TK closure is truely "imminent" (although the definition of that word has been stretched somewhat in the past). So, while I accept a placing is quite possible, the question of whether it happens before or after TK closure is far more debatable. So the question becomes - am I willing to risk missing out on a 100-200% rise in order to avoid a potential 10-20% fall. Put like that, and provided you are not over-exposed in the first place, it again seems to me that the answer to that question becomes obvious. Don't bet the farm on this, or any other, share, but the risk-reward ratio is very good, whether there is a placing or not. If there is then I believe it wil be bought into strongly and quickly, as TK closure could follow quickly after. Place your bets...

This isn't low volume, relatively speaking. There's barely been a handful of trades a day for months.

Strike prices for options and warrants range from 15p to 50p. AIUI, a number of them cannot be exercised, being subject to various restrictions. Those that remain may not all be exercised, and if they are, the higher-priced ones may return almost as much cash to the company as they dilute the shares. I would expect the cash raised to (essentially) go into the same bank account as the monies raised from the sale, mostly to be distributed to shareholders in some form (yet to be determined). Consequently, I reckon that working on a number of 200-210m shares in total is likely to be closer than 240m.

Strikes me that raise was a last-minute, emergency raise due to the construction financing falling through, which itself seems to have been a knee-jerk (and arguably unwarranted) response to the sanctions. The situation now may be different. A new arrangement for construction finance with the previous, or a new financial entity with a higher risk tolerence, perhaps also from the East, could probably be set up. Would take time naturally, but whose to say MC isn't looking at it quietly in the background right now?

That said, the decision has been made to sell and recent developments suggest that process will be successful, so that seems to be the most likely outcome by far at the moment.

The sales process is now entering the end of its first phase with various parties having conducted site visits and others ongoing. Three formal expressions of interest including 2 non-binding offers (subject to further due diligence) have been received by the Company and further offers are expected as nine companies are under a Non-Disclosure Agreement (NDA).

Mark Child, Chief Executive of Condor Gold, commented:
"I am currently in Nicaragua hosting site visits for gold producers conducting due diligence on Condor's La India Project. There are currently nine companies under a NDA, all of whom have access to a virtual data room, which includes all drill data, technical studies to Feasibility Study level, details of permits to construct and operate a mine and financial models. The Board is confident that a binding agreement will be reached. Investors will be updated in due course."

Cautionary Statement: Investors should note that, whilst the Board is encouraged by the process to date, there can be no guarantee that the Company will complete the sale of its assets.

Bit of a pointless RNS IMHO, given (with the benefit of hindsight of course) none of those approachs resulted in a mutally acceptable offer. Provided a nice spike for traders to exit though, which I gather is what you're after Seingred. Just because you want it, doesn't mean it'll happen though, right? Given SHG's sale process was ultimately unsuccessful, I don't think it implies anything untoward if we don't get one of those. Indeed, I would not be suprised if we didn't get another RNS until "THE" RNS. That is not "promoting" that view any more than you promote your views, but given the lack of news so far, it seems like a perfectly plausible outcome to me.

I think you need to commit to a strategy. Then, no matter what the SP does, at least you will know what you should do. Given your concern, what do you plan to do about it?

For example, if your strategy is to hold until sale, then the ups and downs of the SP in-between are somewhat moot, if you're worried about liquidity or feel over-exposed, then reduce your holding accordingly, etc

Ideally you'd know the answers to these questions before you buy a single share, but if you didn't, it's never too late to start thinking about it.

Take book5's comment with a pinch of salt IMHO, he has his own agenda. I don't think it's that odd that we haven't had news, frustrating yes, but not odd. There'll be NDA's and lawyers all over the place. Artisnal miners being told to leave isn't particularly RNS-worth anyway IMHO.

Can someone enlighten me on the $80m capital equity issue please? Will this come from a future fund-raise, or is this already accounted for in existing financial arrangements?

Perhaps the tweets are not aimed at us. There are a lot of other people involved in the project one way or another. As important as we think we are, we are not the centre of the universe.

"A share of Condor Gold is worth $15/oz in the ground ... less than 1% of the gold price ... normally sold for anything between 3-10% of the gold in the ground"

Well said. I didn't catch it and sounds like I didn't miss much, but not sure what people were expecting from this webinar in the first place. It was optimistic to think this would signify funding completion, given recent interviews that implied a bit longer to wait. As I've said previously, HAA isn't in charge of the timelines, we're a £28m company seeking £320m in funding, which means the folks with the money are in the driving seat. However, there's no indication to me that there's much danger of it not happening at all, but HAA cannot say when it will be any more than we can. We can wait or we can go elsewhere. I don't want to miss out on the upside when it does happen though, so I'm sitting tight for the time being.

You signed up to LSE to post that? Why bother? CNR living in your head rent-free?