RE: Talking Point4 Jan 2026 18:04
China taking Taiwan is a whole other category of chaos. For one thing, it will not be anywhere near as easy or clean. It could easily be bloody and brutal.
Then you've got the fact that electronics prices are already high due to AI data centers sucking up global supply of memory and graphics cards. The impact to global supply chains of electronics (and what *doesn't* have a microchip in it these days) would be profound.
Yes, it would be good for gold, but this is one of those scenarios where I would side with the Major, in that the global chaos that would be unleased is just not worth it. Gold may get a bump, MTL would make a little bit more money, but global stock markets would crash and you could forget about being able to buy *any* electronics device - computers, phones, cars, etc, etc, etc - for reasonable money for the forseeable future. We'd all better hope that doesn't come to pass IMO.
FWIW, I don't think it will - China plays the long game, and is pretty pragmatic in most regards, and as much as they'd like the territory, they understand the economic and political implications of such a move, and I don't think it makes sense for them, at the moment. They will however be ramping up their own electronics production facilities, so that they would be insulated against the fallout in the future...