Member Info for elcobbledore

I agree we dcf models it’s in the pennies…but remember this is aim and secondly you’re dealing with the Chinese and so many times they buyout cheaply. That’s just how they operate. I’m hoping us lth get a good deal if it ever happens of course…

If we take zijin premium paid, 27 per cent. With moving average of 0.31, add 48 per cent for resource increase takes to 0.59. I’d take 0.8 and move on.

I reckon Hainan are lining up selling the gold to Zijin who are always balls deep in Mali, once they have bought out kod.

https://www.zijinmining.com/news/news-detail-122569.htm

I agree lilpeep, at these super low SP levels, it makes sense for Hainan to swoop. The kodal curve It’s literally doing the total opposite to the lassonde curve!! Massively de risked project, big resource increase in a bull market….the issue I think will be what price Hainan want to pay vs what price kodal value it at. As a lth I would absolutely take 1p and want to be gone and move on. I’d probably even say yes to 0.8p as I’m done with aim.

Fair enough Mikb but think it’s worth adding the 48 per cent increase in resource too on top of these…after all Hainan are saying it’s now 47mt (from 31mt)

The thing is oneandonly, if it did come to it, hainan want it cheap and chips and the board of kod want a good deal. All depends on negotiation. But Hainan are going nowhere. They need the spod. It’s clear they just want kod out of the way but got to pay a decent market rate for it!

I do think they will negotiate. As you say badomen if an offer was on the table that is reasonable Bernie may take it, he’s probably late 50s and has a load of shares. Make it worth his while, and all of our whiles, and maybe it will happen.

But KMUK is now a producer. Lots can go wrong and most juniors never get to production so you can’t really compare value back then as a junior vs now an actual producer. All about having a stable revenue and profit now. If they did offer anywhere near £150m as things stand with spod price, AISC holding (guessing $750) about 2 years floatation plant production at 230ktpa and they get their money back. So I think that’s a superb deal for Hainan.

Yep I’m with you treestump, patience tested right to its limit. I still believe value wise if spod holds and stage 2 in production this has 1p over it. But I think Hainan will buy out the remaining 49 per cent that kod has so they won’t share any future profits, before stage 2 is up and running. I would if I was them. Yes they have total control right now but I’d be miffed giving away almost half the profits down the road if I don’t need that third party.

My view is it it ever did get to a buyout, I’d accept 0.8 plus and be done and move forwards. And move away from aim, I’ve had enough!

I agree Bfd. But it’s how the Chinese operate and have done this countless numbers of times. If they did offer, it would be v low, and then kod would negotiate it up. I ageee 0.6p is too low but Hainan are the ones in control here.

Yep agreed, Hainan we definitely in the driving seat. I do still think they will line up a buyout at some point as it’s clear they are looking to the future. They know how much profit there will be for stage 2 if spod holds and won’t want kod to take any share of it. It’s not guaranteed of course but if I’m Hainan right now I’d be thinking right we think we’ve got 47mt, a decent resource. We want all of it and kod to be gone as they aren’t needed. 47mt isn’t price in to kod yet as it’s not JORC compliant. Price that in, makes it 0.45 as it stands. Maybe offer 0.6 and see where it goes. Just my one thoughts but v well backed by Fosun and we know Chinese have form in cheap acquistions.

Both cpai and ctai had shown some decent days recently. About time MFAI comes up trumps…

I agree it’s not great news today however i would disagree we are a one trick pony. There is still Fatou with previous MRE of 350k oz which is massive. As far as I’m aware that license is still ok. But lots of work to do there.

The most exciting ones for me are Cameramatics, Vizgard and Napster (although still unsure about true value of Napster….)

Yep all about realisations here. Good portfolio for sure but us shareholders want realisations. Last one was 14 months ago…but heavily undervalued at this level!

Hi Merc, so Hainan have released a resource upgrade to 47mt (from 31mt), it’s on their site, but I believe it’s not totally JORC compliant. So work needs to be done to get it to JORC standard. Hainan are happy with releasing those figs though. ETA for stage 2, well FID is meant to be later in 2026 but knowing what’s happened with previous timelines i would expect either q4 2026 or q1 2027

Folks I think it’s worth looking at valuations. 3 x ebitda is v v low for a producer. Some are 4-10x but putting higher risk as it’s Mali. Barrick apparently is 7x.

Estimated ebitda based on JUST 1 year DMS is £37m ($2000 pt, AISC $750, I’ve increased it, 125kpt). So even for only 1 year’s production, a good share price would be £111m, current market cap £60m. Shows how v undervalued kod is…feel free to have a google.

Also some were saying there isn’t any institutional ownership. Totally wrong, a ton of iis have invested.

It’s frustrating as I invested in kod as they had both lithium and gold assets. It’s been misleading. We have only Fatou now for gold.

But the gold was never priced into the share price anyway. Bougouni will be unaffected from this RNS, its license is in good standing but I do feel many have lost confidence in the board. Maximising shareholder value my ass!

Worth a read, pretty interesting

https://shafcenter.org/en/china-mali-relations-a-growing-partnership-amid-geopolitical-transformations/