Member Info for elcobbledore

It puts some moronic posts to bed that start with “the dangers of investing in Mali” etc. mining is so crucial to their wealth they’ll want to at the very least if not grow it.

Didn’t realise gold provided 9 per cent of GDP that’s amazing…

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/mali-gold-mining-revenue-rose-by-35-2022-2023-07-19/

But we will know for sure re the seperate Leo suspension bit by thu 27th which is to do with DSO shipments. Hopefully we do get some clarity at some point re the potential new mining law but don’t see this happening until end aug when funding should I hope arrive (can happen anytime but prefer to err on the side of caution)

May be but sp angel really should have thought about potential consequences of what they said. Maybe they didn’t think about it enough but shouldn’t have linked kod in with Leo re their suspension. For me, fundamentals haven’t changed, even if we give an extra 2.45 per cent to the Mali government it’s not a big deal vs the last law (the extra potential 20 per cent difference between the two laws would have to be paid for once in production, no guarantee that will ever happen). Still sht loads of lithium we know about and a ton more unexplored…

Hi Lav think trading means it was a stupid comment for sp angel to make which we all agree with.

I’ve emailed anyway to ask them to do an update anyway and also said the sp angel comment wasn’t great, provides confusion and panic to the market. We will see if I get a response.

Yeah SP Angel have been irresponsible mentioning kodal. Looks at resolute and barrick gold, share price has held.

Thanks didn’t realise there was a second page.

Ok thanks yea a lot of guesswork at the mo until we get it cleared. ASX releases don’t specifically mention ore (gone on Leo website) but think it’s more than likely got to do with ore as they’ve just started to ship it. Leo can be in a voluntary suspension for as long as they want, I’m hoping that they release a statement clearing stuff up soon though.

Or Lav are you saying it’s definitely not to do with the increased share, solely to do with ore which won’t affect kod?

The thing is Leo needs mail on board but also Mali absolutely need Leo, the amount of money they will make on mining the lithium is staggering, and will massively boost their economy. I’d expect an RNS to be issued within the next day by Leo to provide some kind of clarity surely. Maybe final negotiations to agree to Mali taking the new percentages as per their mining law (yet to be passed and agreed). We all know how slow admin can be to get this sort of stuff agreed though.

Yeah I’m with you Lav but some people just don’t do their own due diligence on investments supported by data, that is so key.

Personally I think some haven’t done their due diligence and think that government will automatically take 35 per cent share free, and got scared when some mentioned Mali will nationalise their mining (no evidence whatsoever and highly unlikely as they need the skillset to mine which they just don’t have at the mo). As I said earlier that just isn’t the case, always going to be peaks and troughs, I try not to focus too much and look to the long term using data.

Recent article worth reading. Fundamentals have not changed and market is still hot and will be for some time.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/12/energy-sector-driving-demand-for-lithium-other-critical-minerals-iea.html?&qsearchterm=lithium

Not sure why people are panic selling. Even if the new Mali mining law gets approved the only difference is that 5 per cent gets paid to local governments so that’s 2.45 per cent for kodal and then potentially another 10 per cent to government BUT that is NOT free they would have to pay market rates for it. Not a big deal.

No worries mate, long term the patient will be rewarded…

Hi all, I’ve modelled the latest info below.

Assuming current spod price of £2,718 assuming kodal will have 41.65% share (Mali take 15 per cent, leaves 49 per cent of 85). In theory Mali can take a further 20 per cent but this would have to be bought so certainly would be associated value here.

C1 cost and selling/transportation costs of £432 per tonne.

DMS build of £50m, floatation plant assumed same cost as Leo as costs are way outdated on Kodal’s website (too cheap). Leo floatation estimated build at £250m.

DMS figs kod profit of £474,284,210 over 4 years. Based on 130k pa, total 520k.

Floatation figs kod profit of £1,247,856,741 over remaining years, based on difference between current of 1,940,000 minus 520k for DMS which gives 1,420,000 tonnes.

Even if we massively lower spod price to £1540 per tonne ie $2k, Kodal’s profit is £219,131,312 for DMS and £551,093,058 for floatation.

This also assumes no uplift in resource (clearly we have huge land holding and with Leo massively increasing resource I’d expect similar) plus no value to gold, we have in theory £500m plus but loads to do on that so won’t add in.

So yes a few issues re Mali government potentially taking a larger cut but this is tbc. And the more incentived they are and we play ball, they will hopefully give us the license to explore more than the current 97km2 license we have, so long term I am really not fussed if they take a larger slice.

Same especially as big funding news can drop anytime over the next 6 weeks 👍

They’re more than likely in negotiations as the Mali government want more of a cut for the DSO, don’t blame them wanting to do so. They’ll want to resolve quickly as it is in both parties interest to do so.

Hi all. Just to say I’m taking a break from this as not been in the best of head space recently,

Genuinely wish everyone well. And think everyone should take a break from here regardless whatever stock they hold I wish them well 👍