Member Info for ejt7777

Thoughts on a Notice of Arbitration RNS week commencing 6th May?

Thanks Gall.

I appreciate that the arbitration process (assuming no settlement) will take a long time, but hope that the arbitration figure and the start of the process will act as catalysts in the immediate term.

It will be good to hear from Mark how he envisages Panthera spending the interim time on its other prospects.

The last corporate presentation was issued in May 2022, with timelines to the end of 2022.

We are obviously further down the line with all projects/prospects, but no overall picture or timeline for progression in 2024.

Obviously, Bhukia is largely out of Panthera's hands, but I would like to know when Mark will be issuing an updated corporate presentation and case for investors.

All quiet on the Western Front at the moment. Hopefully that changes in the next week or so...

I'm no expert but I'd be very surprised if a legal challenge by PAT fell under electoral purdah rules/constraints as it is legal rather than political.

Thanks Pk

Hi Pk,

Where did you find out the bid status for Bhukia pls?

Thanks

"In accordance with the Treaty, the parties must attempt to reach an amicable settlement and efforts are ongoing to determine if any potential exists for such a settlement of the dispute. If the efforts at settlement prove ineffective, IGPL will promptly deliver a notice of arbitration to the Government of India."

My working assumption is that if the auction goes ahead, this effectively shuts down any 'amicable settlement' opportunities with the local gov't. This leads to 3 scenarios off the top of my head (there are probably more):

1. Auction delayed (and we should receive an update from PAT in this case, as clearly there will have been a reason for the delay...)

2. RNS released before auction goes ahead with details of some form of settlement for PAT

3. Auction goes ahead and RNS released stating the Notice of Arbitration has been issued

In all of the above instances, the potential for PAT is transformational.

DYOR, usual caveats, etc.

Definitely approaching a crunch point at Bhukia! Big 3 weeks ahead IMO.

Auction scheduled for early May (around the 5th). Working assumption is that if it goes ahead, this effectively shuts down any 'amicable resolution' opportunities with the local gov't, and the Notice of Arbitration will be issued by PAT (via LCM) shortly afterwards. Arbitration value could be informed by the auction, but plenty of rough estimates knocking around on this board.

In other news, the share trades are a nice shade of blue this morning...

We all know what we'd *like* to happen on NoA/ known compensation value, but what do you think will *realistically* happen?

Buys outweighing sells by 3.5:1, tiny volume, SP down 7.4%. Go figure.

Lovely spot, Prof.

*chef's kiss*

Pretty relaxed about today's RNS - it was delivered on schedule when expected, with a resource update at Bhukia and confirmation that the threshold for submitting the notice of arbitration hasn't been met. There's a pretty large elephant in the room regarding why the notice of arbitration hasn't been issued, but given it can only be issued in the absence of meaningful correspondence from the other party, either PAT has received engagement from GoR or they are waiting for the auction to happen.

I suspect the latter, as it would be reasonable to submit the notice of arbitration as soon as Bhukia goes to auction, as that effectively closes down any opportunity for amicable resolution.

At this stage, I see 3 potential next steps:

1. GoR proceeds with auction on 2 May and NoA issued by PAT.

2. RNS issued at some point between now and 2 May with settlement, and auction proceeds without dispute hanging over it on 2 May.

3. GoR delays Bhukia auction to date TBC pending outcome of settlement negotiations with PAT

Personally, I think it's going to be 1 or 2 (and a coin toss as to which), but there is no likely scenario where PAT is rebuffed and no NoA is issued IMHO.

Also, given that LCM are in the driving seat for the NoA, it's unfair to criticise PAT for inaction this quarter. They are playing it by the book.

Bottom line - it's a big month ahead.

Gallmat, a question that is worth asking Mark (but he probably can't answer) is whether or not we are still on for an interview and an update this month?

Any idea where Mark's been?

Everyone is entitled to (and deserve) a break. Timing is interesting though.

Auction is 8 weeks today - that'll come around quick enough. Am expecting an update from PAT before then, but equally I wouldn't be surprised if the NoA is held back until after the auction, as there will be a definitive value on the prospect by that point.

Thanks, much appreciated.

When's the next update due please? Thanks

Must be getting close to some form of news as the squabbles have started! ;-)

For the avoidance of doubt... I said in my previous post that the arbitration panel would convene, rather than conclude. Maybe 'convene' is an incorrect choice of word, but I'm under no illusion about timelines on this - it'll enter the arbitration sausage machine at that point.

This is my 3rd year invested in Panthera. Everyone has their own investment strategy, but hopefully we'll get an uplift on notice of arbitration and the claim amount, at which point I'm going to de-risk.

All the best, Ed