focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
Court in India next week. ***IF*** the case is heard and moves forward, that would be a catalyst. However, my expectations are well and truly managed on that one and I expect another can kick down the road.
Beyond that, Mark needs to provide the investment case for new and existing shareholders for 2023, and I would hope that he does so as a matter of urgency.
Well, I for one would like to thank Mr008 et al. for their services. I make all of my investment decisions based upon the opinions of those I've never met while reading a public forum, rather than doing my own due diligence...
@Merc, from the RNS:
'Completion of the Kodal Group Funding Transaction, including receipt of funds, is conditional upon satisfying various conditions precedent on or before 30 April 2023, or such later date as the parties may agree (the "Long Stop Date") and whilst the parties have entered legally binding agreements, there is no guarantee that the transaction will ultimately proceed.'
The end of December is usually slow for the holidays etc. so I'm not fazed. Likewise, we are at the end of the first working week of 2023 and there are another 12 weeks left in Q1, so there's plenty of time left for TK to launch as per planned timescales.
Lawrence, I respectfully disagree. We know GoR are kicking the can down the road, but MB was out in India over the summer and late autumn - we don't know why, or what was achieved. Panthera hasn't issued a Notice of Dispute to GoI when it said they would - again, we don't know the context behind this.
Moving away from India, the Corporate Presentation of May 2022 only goes up to the end of 2022 - we have no published plans for any prospect beyond the end of the year.
Given how the share price has tanked (and it is now firmly a bottom-drawer stock for me), what is the investment case for 2023?
Agreed. Let's get the (inevitable) disappointment of the 5th out of the way, and then MB had better update us on plans for PAT in '23 pretty sharpish thereafter. The corporate presentation from May is now out of date, proposed actions in India not completed (what was MB doing out there a few weeks ago?), what is the business case to sell to current and prospective investors to get them to part with their cash next year?
Morning JL.
Further to the RNS on 12/10, we are still awaiting some rock sampling results from Bido. Apart from that, Bassala's 2022 drill campaign is complete, and Labola looks to be quiet too this quarter (some environmental / CSR stuff aside). The company's Corporate Presentation from May contains timelines until the end of 2022 only, hence Mark is going to need to update the market with Panthera's 2023 plans in the near future.
I don't hold my breath re: Bhukia for resolution on 5th Dec either (but live in hope), but Mark being in India at the moment suggests that there is focus on this prospect right now. *IF* he pulls it off (big, big IF)...
@mickey oh absolutely - Faskens would try to squeeze the Govt as much as it could.
A quick google was used to figure out the value of gold in the ground to a prospector - the results ranged from $10/oz to $150. Even at the bottom end of that scale it's about 10x current MCap, and at the upper end it's about $1.7bn (hence the extra couple of zeros on the MCap comment by Mark).
Given the glacial pace in India at the moment, if December is unsuccessful I think Mark should escalate to the next level.
Fair comment John
In all likelihood, Bhukia probably isn't going to get resolved in December and yes, I agree, the courts over there are a complete farce. I'm approaching the December date with hope rather than expectation.
However, there are a couple of anomalies from which I would like explanations from Panthera regarding this prospect:
- Mark was in India in August, and no explanation/subsequent feedback given. Likewise, we know he's there now. What's he up to? Negotiating a JV? Settlement? Negotiating with the courts behind closed doors?
- Why haven't we issued the Notice of Dispute to Govt of India yet? I suspect that this is related to the above, but that is an educated guess rather than anything more tangible.
- There were 2(?) hearing dates over the summer, but the last published order/judgement was in March. Again, why were no updates published by the courts following these sessions, and why the extended 5-month delay to the next hearing?
The latter point probably relates to your observations on the Indian legal service, however the former two are within Panthera's gift to inform its shareholders on. That feels binary to me: either we've done/achieved nothing, or talks are ongoing and MB doesn't want to jeopardise them.
Rightly or wrongly, Panthera's share price and Bhukia are intertwined, and this will remain a 'bottom drawer' stock for me until it gets resolved one way or the other.
Cheers
Ed