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The major headlines:
- Next court date for Bhukia is scheduled for 17/5 (long term holders will snort into their coffees at this statement). If MB is succesful with the Rajasthan gov't, this might actually happen and it would be transformational for the company. If not, I expect the litigation to be started shortly thereafter.
- Cascades - updated resource targeting 2MOz gold expected towards end of the year.
@Invfun, long story short (and apologies to others for the non-PAT chat) is that Kodal Minerals has agreed a conditional funding package of $117M to finance a lithium plant on their Bougouni lithium project, which is expected to be up and producing within 12 months of finance, and further gold drill prospecting (current MCap $66M). A $7M deposit has been received by KOD and, as part of the deal, the financing partner is going to be subscribing $17M of shares at 0.5p (25% above current SP). The conditions for the deal are required to be met by 30 April (latest), hence the deadline, but it is hoped that they will conclude sooner.
Full details as per their RNS of 19 Jan.
Whilst I've disclosed I have a position in KOD which I'm looking to exit within this timeframe, please do your own research, this is not a tip, etc.
I'm waiting on an RNS from Kodal Minerals to drop and will invest the profits from that here. Max 7 weeks until that lands, and I just hope that Panthera doesn't land beforehand.
Of course, if it does then I'll do the reverse, but suspect it'll be less lucrative.
FYI Panthera sent out a tweet at 1230ish showing the drill turning at Cascades:
https://twitter.com/pantheraplc/status/1631270127730843650?s=46&t=Z-9_1CcwlV3CfY5RlhMfKA
@Edhellas re:"not bad" I didn't want to come across as sounding rampy ;-)
In all seriousness, after a COVID-hindered slow start, MB is working hard on two fronts re: Bhukia (resolution 1st, litigation 2nd) while Moydow is progressing Cascades.
Could be an interesting H2 for Panthera.
7.5Moz at $80 /oz in-ground value is $600M. Assuming LCM get a slice of around $150M (15%, plus initial investment and additional faffing about), that leaves $450M for Panthera ($3.44/share approx.).
Not as good as a positive outcome, but not too bad either.
@machiismo, that's the issue though - I've seen various numbers banded around regarding the value of gold in the ground, ranging between $10 and $250/oz. For what it's worth, I agree with Edhellas that somewhere around $80/oz would feel like a reasonable baseline number, which would equate to Panthera's value in Cascades being around $32M ($0.24/share) if the calcs are correct.
Please can someone check (and inevitably correct) my maths.
If, as Allenby Capital suggest, the resource at Cascades is envisaged to be updated to >2MOz in Q4:
Panthera's share in Moydow = 20%
Panthera's slice of Cascades = >400kOz
The value of gold in the ground is oft debated, but assuming somewhere between $10 and $100/oz , Panthera's Cascades share is worth somewhere between $4M and $40M (I think more like the latter than the former)
With 131M shares in circulation, this equates to a value per share of between $0.035 and $0.35
If Panthera choose to increase their share of Moydow by a further 10%, they would get a further 200kOz (somewhere between $2M and $20M) of gold for $7.2M, adding another $0.018 - $0.18 of value per share, which feels a bit of a no brainer towards the upper end of that scale.
Obvoiusly, those numbers are dependent on how Cascades moves forward thereafter and any value realised to Panthera as part of a future JV, buyout, etc. but I'd appreciate your thoughts.
Someone's been reading my comments on here! From Monday:
"Hopefully some news towards the end of Q2 on Cascades on the first phase of drilling, with news of the location of drilling of phase two to follow.
If they can get phase 2 drilling done over the summer, hopefully we'll be looking at an updated resource estimate towards the latter part of the year and a decision on how to move forward on this prospect thereafter. Would be good to get some definitive timeline on this from MB though, as it's just speculation on my part."
I feel more confident in there being a resolution having seen the tweets from Panthera in recent days. Let's see if there are any RNS announcements over the next couple of months announcing a JV with the state government...
Hopefully some news towards the end of Q2 on Cascades on the first phase of drilling, with news of the location of drilling of phase two to follow.
If they can get phase 2 drilling done over the summer, hopefully we'll be looking at an updated resource estimate towards the latter part of the year and a decision on how to move forward on this prospect thereafter. Would be good to get some definitive timeline on this from MB though, as it's just speculation on my part.
It would also be nice if they were releasing this news as an appetiser ahead of Bhukia on Thurs...