Member Info for ejt7777

@Nelson, undoubtedly so - I suspect the claim size is known, the case is prepped and we are ready to go. It's more a question of what is considered to be a reasonable time frame for GoI to acknowledge and meaningfully respond prior to notice of arbitration.

You could make a case for 15/30/60/90/X days from the initial letter. Given the bureaucracy faced thus far though, I'm expecting it to be later in the quarter than sooner, and the last thing we want is to be accused by GoI of not giving them an appropriate time to respond, especially given the huge sums of money at stake.

@Pk, thanks - I'd forgotten that not-insignificant detail! In that case, I'd put $670M as the bottom-end of my expectations.

@Stampee it's impossible to put a % on it. Faskens have a proven track record (90% success rate) so you'd like to hope the market would be bullish about the case, but this is AIM...

Depends on how you value the gold in-ground and whether you use the 1.74, 6.7 or other MOz resource.

If you look at the rumoured $1bn, that works out at an in-ground $149ish/Oz for the 6.7MOz resource.

Personally, I wouldn't be surprised if $100/Oz is used and the claim is for around $670M, but my guess is as good as anyone's.

Probably when notification of arbitration is made

Notice of arbitration - Panthera essentially telling the GoI that they are being sued for $X

Notice of dispute - issued yesterday

Notice of arbitration - will be issued after no meaningful correspondence or amicable settlement

Arbitration - within 2 months of notice of arbitration

Still think we're 2-3 months away from issue of notice of arbitration, with arbitration itself to follow on within 2 months of that.

Love it - first working day of 2024 and the Notice of Dispute is issued.

I reckon either 60 or 90 days from issue to notice of arbitration, unless meaningful correspondence or amicable settlement is reached. From there, 2 months max to arbitration.

A very big 3-5 months ahead for Panthera!

Decent volume today

Thanks Prof. I thought I was missing the little red dot...

I'm slightly surprised that we haven't heard that the notice of dispute has been issued to GoI by PAT, and am assuming that this hasn't happened yet. As a result, I expect the follow-on notice of arbitration will be issued at the end of Q1 at the earliest now. However, after 3 long years in this share, what's another 3 months?

Big H1 ahead for PAT in 2024.

Has there been an RNS Prof?

@Geng, hope so - it'd be nice to no longer be under water on this one!

@deck, something along these lines as a rough and ready calculation:

Lower, confirmed JORC resource of 1.74MOz

Gold in the ground value of $100/oz (5% of market value of gold/oz approx)

Value in the ground = $174M

Shares in issue 171M

Value/share $1.02 (80p, or 16 bags from current sp)

Same calcs for non-JORC 6.7MOz resource gives $3.92/share value (£3.07, or 60x current sp)

If you swap out the 'in ground' value of $100/Oz with market rate of approx. $2000/Oz, you can multiply the above numbers by another 20x.

In short, PAT is due a re-rate.

Any thoughts on the 900k shares (£45.5k) transaction at 14:11?

Yep, about 100m - I read on here that amount of drilling would be about right to recommission the broken part, but I'm no expert.

It'll be interesting to see if target depth is again revised, or if the seal will be perforated this time. We'll find out soon enough.

No news means there is no market sensitive news right now. Switch off and enjoy the late autumn sunshine.

I think that Lorna is very aware of how rampy her predecessor was, and is trying to strike a more measured, cautious tone this time around. However, I watched the interview again, and agree that there were flickers of emotion at certain points when the helium shows were discussed. I'm also aware of my own conscious bias though.

We will see soon enough!

As we're doing tips, Panthera Resources (PAT) is worth a look. About to take the Indian Govt to arbitration under Australia-India Bilateral Investment Treaty. Legally fully funded, Faskens acting for Panthera. At some point in the next few weeks, Panthera is going to RNS the start of the proceedings against the Indian Govt and signal the amount they are looking at.

Allenby (broker) suggest this will resettle the sp at around 90% discount from the proposed award, and this is based on precedent with other companies who have gone through the process. Proposed award will be anything between 500m and 2bn, suggesting the sp is expected to settle between 32p and £1.28 while going through the process (current sp 6.5p).

Do your own research, usual caveats, etc.

@Turbot, you prove my point - there's no news because there's no news to share yet.

...or there's no news that can be put before the market yet.

It's been done to death on other threads, but there are multiple reasons why HE1 haven't updates us.

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