Member Info for edgar222

Mole

Totally take your points.

What I am interested in is how that sort of revenue translates to profit and a share price. Why 40p? Seems to me that figure is way out of date and far too low.

Any insights appreciated. Is p/e a fair basis?

I am just trying to work on some numbers based on Torobravo's helpful recent post.

What I have got to is an annual revenue from Elgood gas alone of £180m. NOT counting the condensate at circa 1k barrels per day. NOT counting Blythe (results any day).

I get there based on 180p per therm and the announced flow rate of 58.7 mmscf/d. And then taking off 50% for the licence holding.

The market cap today is £149m (523,443,000 shares at 28.5p).

Which means that the broker assumptions (£82m revenue for 2022) (based on Torobravo's reference to Finncap in August 2021) are way out.

The Company has said it does not know what Blythe will add by way of flow rate/revenue, so obviously I don't either. Might it double (ie. be the same again?)

The numbers are staggering and I am convinced my maths must be out.

Anyone?!

Market is wary of junior resource stocks promising jam tomorrow.

We have to bring the jam forward. Ie. Revenue from spoil/tailings.

It is just that simple. IMHO

Fwiw I have not thought (since the farmout) that a merger with WEN makes any sense for Aminex.

WEN and SCIR doing a deal is much more obvious, I believe.

Well spotted npm! Very good news!

Looking again at at the August presentation and reminding myself that there is a £65m carry on the farmout into phase 2. The raise today is about phase 3 assets. So a way down the track. For me, proper future planning of assets to bring onstream and with cashflow imminent perhaps the last raise needed?

Happy.

Thanks everyone. Good and interesting posts.

Yes, welcome Vista. I think this board is quiet because we all see the potential and many of us have been here a while.

I would be interested to see your revenue numbers that led to your buy decision.

Best

It is an obvious point and I probably don't need to say it. But.

Lets say my rounding up and optimism is way out. And Aminex have half of what I think they might have. So 500BCf not 1 TCF.

The valuation based on Wentworth's NPV halves. To 12.5 cents per share.

(Actually I think Aminex will ultimately have much more gas than 1TCF. I think Ruvuma is a world class and enormous field that will be proved up. But I am trying to keep a lid on it for rational valuation purposes!)

Very interesting valuation point, Blackgold.

So based on the reasons given in my recent post and including rounding up and being optimistic, Aminex have 1TCF after next drilling. If Wentworth give a Net Present Value of $116m to 90.8 BCF then that makes Aminex' share over a $1bn.

Obvious caveats apply. Wentworth is in production. They are talking formal reserves and I am talking estimates. Etc.

But as an illustration of what Aminex have it is very useful.

Shares in issue are 3.9bn (call it 4bn). A value of $1bn on the asset is 25 cents a share. Convert to sterling.

And the last trade of the day was a 1 code....(according to ADVFN)

;)

Road upgrade a "few hundred metres" (only).

Luk

I don't know the answer to that but did clock the line about the logistics of getting the spoil heaps off the mountain.

I just want them to work it out and start producing. And to get on with it. Am happy at the news as it looks like they are doing so. Will try to be there at 4pm but might be held up elsewhere (actual work!). Timescales for production from spoil heaps would be my question. If the logistics are difficult a smaller local processing plant?

https://twitter.com/edgartwo2/status/1437167261568090118?s=21

Kewben

Revenue plan from tailings is currently key for me. Would settle the funding nerves and allow the drilling search to unfold on a better basis. I think I am quite forgiving of Boards of Directors that I trust and I trust BH. But I will not accept more radio silence on the tailings/spoil heaps.

But you wouldn't know it from LSE

Investor presentation Monday

https://masterinvestor.co.uk/equities/iog-blythe-and-saturn-banks-ready-to-go-stellar/

Ok good to know, Mcadder. Many thanks

I am unclear about whether we have had all the assay results from the recent drill programme or are waiting on more.

I am hoping for spoil heap income news.

Further drills informed by the recent programme also to be announced?

Tanzania

If you keep this up the trolls will start suggesting we are the same person. ;)