Member Info for edgar222

For anyone wanting to use that link, change the asterisks for "edgartwo2"

Gervaise Williams on IOG at about 19:21

https://twitter.com/**********/status/1475753890419146752?s=21

Hat tip bountyhunter on Advfn for that link.

https://twitter.com/edgartwo2/status/1475615944177328136?s=21

2022 is going to be our year.

Seasons greetings, peace and prosperity to one and all.

Dr Blight? Terry Pratchett is looking down at this RNS and giggling.

;)

Q4 1st gas still but may be challenging.

I know this management have the sense to deliver efficiently and safely and not over-worry about self i posed PR deadlines.

It is coming. It is coming soon. I don't care whether it squeaks in before midnight on 31st December and I hope they don't either.

Thanks all. Interesting comments. This may be an object lesson in why I am so bad at selling shares. But if IOG are about to hit revenue of something like £0.5m to £1m per day then the mcap has to be significantly higher than your share price predictions.

IMHO. But seriously wtfdik?

GLA

Scored, welcome. And most on here agree with you about the prospects, especially at these gas prices.

Care to hazard a share price target? ;)

Fairly regular "News" flow from the Company on twitter at the moment.

Only saying in case some here are not aware.

Worth a look

I thought the presentation was excellent.

I think as a long term holder who knows about the plans and what is going on it is difficult to judge these things. But from the perspective of someone who wants an intro to the company it was brilliant. Headline for me was confirmation of the extraordinary revenue numbers at current gas prices and the "weeks not months" comment re the fixing of the rig.

RNS out - operations update. Looks good to me. Not yet on LSE website.

When for reasons I gave earlier it is actually worth between $400m as non producing gas in ground or $167bn applying current gas prices to the full amount as though you could sell it all at once.

The truth is somewhere in between those figures and in any event many multiples of the current mcap.

Northern

Yes. 25% of licence means 25% of costs and also income. Of course we know the costs are carried up to a total spend of over $100m. I cant remember the exact amount now.

Oops sorry. I mean our friends at Scirocco. Been here too long!

It is happening. There is no doubt. I hope our friends at Solo can raise their share of the seismic and drill costs and stay in as long as possible for the upgrade.

I bow to no one in my bullish ridiculous over confidence about the shape Aminex is in right now. For reasons set out before that I wont repeat.

However (and only FWIW) I really am not expecting material re-rates in the share price untill we are a lot closer to the CH1 drill. There will be a drip drip of preparatory news as we get there with little or no price reaction, perhaps even a drift down. Then when the market wakes up the brakes will come off and the re-rate will happen. That was the pattern in 2017 and the share graph of that time bears some study when put against the RNS announcements. It is also the pattern with other shares.

So while that sounds like bad news, it isn't. Because this next period of doldrums is the buying opportunity to end all buying opportunities.

Thinking about how I might be wrong on the timing issue, the really big unknown is an income stream re-commencing from KN1. That would change my above view. But I don't expect that before the CH1 drill.

I will keep buying.

As ever, GLA long-termers. DYOR.

"The acquisition will consist of approximately 338 km² of 3D seismic data focusing on the area of primary interest. AGS will mobilise, weather permitting, and focus on the proposed location for the Chikumbi-1 well ("CH-1") to acquire as much data as possible before the start of the rainy season with the programme re-commencing after that with no additional cost to the JV partners."

OCTOBER
October is typically the last month of the long dry season, and it is still relatively cool, clear and sunny. Daytime temperatures will be mild, and evenings and early mornings will be comfortably cool. Temperatures will increase slightly, ranging from the low 60s F to the mid- to upper 80s F.

NOVEMBER
The short rains begin in November. These are much lighter and less predictable than the long rains. We recommend being prepared with a lightweight, “breathable,” waterproof rain jacket, rain pants and an inexpensive rain poncho. When it is not raining, temperatures will be pleasant, ranging from lows in the mid-60s F to highs in the low 80s F. The best approach is to go with a comfortable base layer when the days are clear and warm and to add warm and/or waterproof layers as needed.

https://www.nathab.com/know-before-you-go/african-safaris/east-africa/weather-climate/tanzania/

Last remaining risk of keep the lights on dilution gone. IMHO.

Agreed Mather. Does not mean Ntorya will be same rate. And with big partner on board and international export a probability it may be that more centralised international rates will apply to Ntorya. But that is speculation by me.

Alcapone: "490bcf is worth $1.5 billion"

I think 490BCF is worth £147bn.

But every time I do a calculation like this the numbers surprise me and I believe I must be wrong. So I am going to set out what my workings out are in case I am. I would encourage checking of this calculation and would be delighted to be corrected.

1mcf means 1 thousand cubic feet. 1mmcf means 1 million cubic feet. The aim is to work out how many therms there are in 490BCF.

I think there are 100k therms in 1 thousand cubic feet of gas.

That means there are 49bn therms in 490BCF.

Assuming £3 per therm (it was up to £4 recently) and I have not re-checked that is how I get to £147bn.

Many caveats. This is not way to value Aminex. It is gas in ground not yet linked to market. Beyond that, it takes years to pump all that gas out so it is an irrelevant calculation to say what it is all worth in the ground now because you cant get it all out now. (May not be irrelevant if you can prove it up and have a reserves based loan, of course). The £3 per therm rate is at a historic high at the moment. That is not the rate agreed for KN1 gas (as HighlandMatt corrected me recently).

Even so. With all those caveats. Makes you think. £147bn.