Member Info for edgar222

Bullfrog

Well said and I completely agree with you on KN1.

Compartmentalised gas structures, difficult and expensive to remedy. I dont mind them going back there with income from Ruvuma if they want to but for now, preserve cash, sit back and wait.

Fwiw I topped up yesterday.

For me this only makes sense if there is a delay coming.

I think its pretty obvious the seismic to CH1 spud is far too tight to oachieve Q3.

Last RNS comtemplated chemical injection to fix the problem this week and flowing immediately after.

So we might be producing at 90mmscf/d again already.

Gas price per therm is down to 290p as I type. So I am afraid that flow rate is only £2.6m per day gross (£1.3m net to IOG).

"To take Crusty's point $35 million spent over 4 or 5 years and under the Zubairs control is worth a lot less that $35 million handed over up front."

Not if it proves up the asset and/or moves it closer to market. It might be worth more than the money spent in those (ie. Aminex') circumstances. By which I mean if you spend £40m to provide a (Say) £40m pa income then the spend is not just a spend with the money gone but has increased the capital value of the asset as well as bringing income.

Jetty

I have never held Solo or Scir but feel a loyalty to them for their support during the dark days for Aminex. I think your analysis is right. I don't really inderstand why anyone wanting to play the Tanzania gas game would choose Scir over Aex.

That said Scir's holding has real value. Assuming it is 1TCF in the ground than that is worth $100s of millions and increasing as route to market becomes clear.

So I believe Scir is too cheap on that basis.

I genuinely wish holders all the best, for the reasons alluded to above.

Broker uses 50mmscf/d for modelling and price target.

I/we on here have been talking about 70mmscf/d.

With caveats, the Company is talking about 90mmscf/d. Gas is 245p per therm as I tupe and has been relatively stable around that level. At 90mmscf/d that is £1.1m NET OF FARMOUT and PER DAY to IOG.

Production rate the only game in town. The other issues are niggles that are solved by that sort of cashflow.

Very positive but with caveats etc.

Interesting. His target price 82p.

Denis

Congrats. Never wrong to take and bank a profit. Never. Easy to say and I am rubbish at doing it. Have not sold a share but would be on a free ride too if I had. Core holding average price is 9p. But I averaged up with a smaller holding at 28p more recently. So am doing ok!

For me this just comes down to maths. At current gas prices and at 70mmscf/d its an income per day of circa £1.3m (gross to the partenership). All debt, bonds and future spending plans will pale into insignificance against that sort of income, if sustained. So value will out.

I am very much hoping they RNS the cash received by the 20th April. That will give us some sort of guidance.

Interesting.

Also with all the news on gas prices and politicians making noises about the North Sea you would think many current producers would be interested in IOG and its future.

Fwiw I believe we are seeing sell on news and top slicing. But the top slicing is by big holders and has a big impact. It is churn.

What is interesting is that the lower the share goes the more likely another opportunistic takeover bid emerges. IOG has already seen one of those off. If the open market cannot find fair value then you can be certain there are number crunchers sitting in offices who can.

Our partner would be the obvious candidate for such a takeover.

Mole

I agree with you about the hedging.

Company assuming a 35% discount to forward gas prices, which still is multiples of the 45p per therm base case. Gas price 256p as I type.

From the final results.

First payment for phase 1 gas contractually due 20th April 2022.

Production guidance expected "mid year"

Surely GWMO have started (or are close to starting) the spring drilling programme?

Bring it on!

Bloody typos! Not stale flow data! Stable.

So I realise this is impatience on my part (been here since 2015, average price 9p via main holding purchase at 14p plus some trading profits).

I also realise that the annual results are for a time period that has passed and will not cover the current events. But we all know companies use annual results to talk of current events. And I also get that they will not provide production guidance until there is much more stale flow data. But. Surely they could tell us what current production is and/or what they are aiming for? Even confirmation of the money already raised from sales would give us something?

Also, would be good to get the hedging quickly set up at these gas prices.

Finally, I don't know if it is noteworthy at all, but every RNS until the recent ones has had the statement that they are targetting a "gross peak production rate of 140 mmscf/d (c. 24,000 Boe/d) from gross 2P gas reserves of 302 Bcfe(1) and management estimated 2C gas Contingent Resources of 132 Bcfe". That has been taken out of the recent RNS announcements.

GLA

What a load of nonsense is being spouted here about PR and media.

Their target audience are institutional investors not retail. They don't care what the Daily Mail says (like anyone with a brain).

The whole market is down today. Sell on news is common practice for those that trade. This is an enormous buying opportunity if tou have the readies.

The reason the market is waiting / coming off is there are no numbers yet, the maths cannot be confirmed. I am hoping that changes with either the next first gas RNS or the annual results tomorrow.

Also final results in 2 days might have something more by way of flow rates/plans

Thanks Robizm

Can I ask what hedging actually is?

Is it forward sales of reserves at a set price?

And what is a "wedge shaped" hedging programme?

Sorry typo below.

It is £30m revenue upside per 10 mmscf/d not 100.