Member Info for edgar222

Hardnose

To paraphrase Sir Alex Ferguson...."the luckier people tell me I get, the more I seem to win"

There is no such thing as luck.

Sq30

Correct. There is talk of a 6 well programme after CH1.

Thanks GGIS and Toro.

I agree.

What I am struggling with (and have been for a while) is how revenue of (call it) £365m per annum impacts the market cap. If Southwark doubles that revenue (from 70 to 140mmscf/d) that is another issue. We have the bond to pay back in 2024 but were planning on doing that at 1/4 of the revenue I am discusssing.

I dont know the answer but assuming profit of £200m - £250m per annum before doubling for Southwark then it is not difficult to see that the current mcap is way too low by a considerable factor. Even assuming the mcap just has to meet cash in bank and not continuong production and revenue it is due to double at least.

Ggis

I am wondering the same! They have been very silent on the issue of production rates. The consensus on thos hoard seems to be 60-70 mmscf/d is reasonable. Which is income of about £1m per day (net to IOG). If it makes sense in terms of the field management then I would like to see the taps on full as soon as possible given the gas prices. But I believe the management are planning something similar (see various RNS statements about capitalising on high gas prices). What I don't know is what "full" means in terms of numbers.

Tanzania

The cheap takeout of Aminex has been a worry, I agree. As other companies and the market wake up to the value that is about to be unlocked it is a risk given our undervalue compared to the farmout, never mind the assets.

But Aminex is about as defended as it is possible to be against such a takeout. Ara/Zubair/Apt own 29.9%. Thats a lot of votes. They are also the operator and farmout partner (separately to that holding). Difficult to buy Aminex without their blessing.

Of course, they might be the buyer. But they have always said they want Aminex as their vehicle in East Africa and everything they have done suggests we can trust them (so far).

Finally, I am seeing valuations of 400m being bandies around. That is over 10p per share. The issue for me is when (not if) we get there. Will it be in the next drilling round or after as we move towards the guaranteed production and income levels?

GLA

https://twitter.com/edgartwo2/status/1486017193758408704?s=21

Maybe because they were waiting for harder figures before announcing the overspend? Problematic to say its an overspend and not by how much and until investigations are done and estimates given they would not have known?

Just a thought.

Aligator

Phase I has two phases. Imminent production will pay for phase 2 of phase 1 (ie. Southwark). More than pay. They are a month away from enormous (relative to mcap) income.

....in me water.

Got to be first gas news soon.

NB. No feeling in me water about timing of share news has ever been correct.

Thanks aprogerson.

Very positive plan and update. Happy.

Hat tip itsrisky that on advfn

Anyone interested there are some comments from Jonathan Wright, Director of research at finnCap, broker to IOG ..

"Current guidance for first gas from the Southwark field is mid-2022, but this may be at risk. A three-month delay would cut our 2022 EBITDA forecast by around 16% to £95m, although this forecast is based off an 80p/th gas price for this year versus an average forward UK gas price of nearer 200p/th."

"We believe the frustrations at the slippage from Q4 of first gas and these additional drilling delays should melt away once the Blythe and Elgood fields come onstream into a rampant UK gas market in early 2022."

Just seen on ADVFN that Finncap are estimating IOG EBITDA FOR 2022 OF £95m.

That is based on gas price of 80p. It is fluctuating but is roughly 3 times that level when I last looked last week.

David

Been in Aminex for years and believe it is going to change my life. But been saying this a while so be warned.

I believe they are in a similar position to IOG in that the gas is found, the farmout is done to a major, the funding is sorted and they are massively underavlued while the market waits for the next big event (September-ish). IOG are ahead of them in the route to production but its (now) a similar story. Was not always. Aminex was the highest of high risk plays but it has changed for the above reasons. Have a look. Ticker AEX. I also think the timing plays nicely with the IOG plan. Wait for Southwark production (June) then switch winnings to Aminex?

Good luck.

Does not seem normal to me Sailor.

Seems way too cheap.

;)

Announce several interested parties as a result of the value disconnect between their assets and the share price.

My (and others) fear here is that Aminex gets taken out on the cheap before they can realise their full potential.

I suspect we are surficiently defended with Ara/Zubair owning so many shares.

Interesting if this Angus news heralds a period of consolidation/activity in the sector.

Yes me too (re the humble pie). Only felt correct once (in 2017) when I then was wrong again because I didn't sell enough on the rise.

For me shares are about trying to objectively read the evidence and evaluating it dispassionately. And In the early days of my Aminex holding I was buying high risk, blue sky stuff. But the share has changed since then and it is a much lower risk getting to production type share now. I think I have changed too. And I have learned to look for Companies that have found the gas/oil and have funding sorted but without the market pricing it all in. That strategy is working at IOG. And Aminex is similar, just some time behind IOG.

The incredible thing about the lower risk profile at Aminex (Imho) is that the Aminex share price does have blue sky potential still in it. That is because the share price is so low. And also because the acreage is so prospective and there might be blue sky news on much more gas (or even oil).

DYOR (obvs!). GLA

Ufufuo

With slightly different calculations and guesses I get to x10 too.

I think the share price action in early 2017 while the last drill was happening is very informative. The difference now is the farmout, absence of financial risk but lower licence holding.

The fact that oilman jim is positive is the only factor in IOG that tells me to sell.

OMG. LSE is editing the name of a rival. It begins with a Vox

Or look at my twitter page for the links.

Sorry. Will shut up now.

Sorry. Not edgartwo2. Replace asterisks with **********