Licence history28 Mar 2021 13:10
Boom Boom (and others)
The licence extension history had been very far from easy going. There were periods where the licence lapsed and renewal had to be counted as a risk. I always believed that the Govt would extend and they did. It is coming up for extension again. I believe (fwiw) that the Govt want this project to work and that has been underlined by the farmout approval. I believe that delays etc have been about the Govt setting up entirely new systems and processes in-country, as well as just delay.
So I remain confident of the licence renewal. When it was last renewed about a year ago (and for a year) it was stated expressly that all parties understood more renewals would be needed and not all commitments would be met within that year. Which is the case.
For me this all goes into the category of political/regulatory risk. And is the only risk left for Aminex. Geological and financial risks have been sorted. The gas has been discovered, its already commercial and the farmout gets us to gas sales. On the keeping the lights ondirector salaries worries I am not worried. The overheads have already been cut and I am in other companies where the directors take shares in lieu (see IOG) while the project is being built. Of course, the debts being paid by the Govt would cover this issue.
So, on the one remaining risk (regulatory/political) the wild card is the new President. I think she is a good thing for Aminex and is business friendly. At least that appears to be the case in the public utterings I can find.
Aminex is a no brainer if you have some patience. And for the long termers here, 9 months to next spud is nothing!
(Fwiw IOG in the North Sea is in a similar position. Building their fully funded hub. Berkshire Hathaway farmed in. First gas Q3 2021. The returns on Aminex are much more blue sky in comparison. I honestly believe 5p is eaily achieved. Beyond that we need news, results, plans and income. All of which I am confident of.)
GLA