Member Info for Early_Bird

yep 3.3m buys vs 75k sells today thus far.

Overhang getting taken out.

Expecting big things with this one.

Been in this game many years and this turnaround story is as good as any that ive seen big returns from. Lets see what happens on the next few deals

Id also argue its the 3 - 10 weeks following on from the FS that is the catalyst here...

https://twitter.com/Trader__007/status/1042705962254184448

£60k loaded in on the closing bell... open offer and placing overhang wont be around much longer imo... as always people will all pile in when SP starts to move, paying premiums..

This stock is starting to get on more radars now.

Not long :)

used to be valued over £50m back on the NT2 discovery (flowed around 3000boepd), company now arguably in much stronger position and at £14mcap with £8m of cash/UKOG shares.

Market forgetting they have 30mmbol eq net 2C, No Debt + directors bought £260k last week @2.25.

Should be way higher up the value curve than this given huge past operational successes. Previous poor management + death spiral the reason for depressed SP - both of which now gone

Olderandwiser (sue) think ive added you, is your account protected?

1 - this video should help you regarding Ruvuma. Tanzanian govt extremely supportive as they need the gas desperately:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cntSwqspHDQ

2 - totally agree UKOG is overvalued POS but its extremely liquid and you can bet SOLO are freeing up cash as we speak. Remember they are testing the kimmeridge end of this month which will bring huge hype and volume. If they can sell over 2.5p then thats near £6m!

Regarding your last point I can DM you an email response I got back from the company on their strategy. Nothing sensitive obviously, but I prefer not to share them on here (are you on twitter?)

Historically SOLO had a death spiral debt financing, Ruvuma was on hold going nowhere, plus questionable management …

.....................................................................................

Looking at the situation now, we have new management, no debt / no death spiral financing, £3m cash, £5m in extremely liquid UKOG shares, 13% of Helium-one, Kiliwani North about to be put back in to production, Ruvuma back in action and moving quickly now with production plan (thanks to AEX farming out to new operator), starting with the huge CH-1 drill end of Q4. New directors were happy to load over £200k last week at 2.25p.

Key for me as always is buying a stock at an inflexion point. SOLO ticks all the boxes for me here for a big rerate with the very least fair value here currently being £25m (4.2p) as a base to build from as CH-1 drill approaches.

*Typo noticed I put 3700boepd in a previous post... its actually 6700boepd.

In Aminex's $40m farm out carried costs, $15m is projected to carry them to initial (minimum)production of 40mmcf (3700beopd) and then the remaining $25m is to take it to over 100mmcf by drilling multiple further wells.

Personally think SOLO can structure a much better deal whereby we farm out enough to carry us to first production relinquishing much less at this stage than we need to.

“APT will establish an early production system to achieve an accelerated first gas to a MINIMUM gross rate of 40MMscf/d by Qtr1 2020”

Unless you havent been following, AEX have farmed out 50% to Zubair Corporation

"the Farm-Out will accelerate the development of the Ntorya project, carry Aminex through to a minimum gross production rate of 40 MMcf/d and be self-funded through a full field development project"

Zubair Corporation were willing to pay $40m for their share (equates to $20m for 25%).. so I would be calling that "nothing".. ;) And they obviously see huge upside from that capital outlay too.

all about timing entry, now is when the turnaround begins here

Solid day of volume / churn.

The new HH deal for UKOG shares really is a stroke of genius by the new board as is essentially means the company has £8m of liquid assets.

They can now either:

Self fund their share of CH-1 appraisal (NT3) due to spud Q4 (£3.3m net cost to solo)

OR

They could farm out (eg) 10% of Ruvuma on the same terms as #AEX and be fully carried for their remaining 15% to initial production of 40mmcf (3700beopd gross or 1000boepd net)...

Certainly nice to have £3m cash and £5m in UKOG shares too in back pocket and will for sure help in the bargaining table.

No debt and management recently bought a large chunk of shares.

People forget this is 25% ownership of a huge gas discovery that flows strong commercial rates and has full govt backing... priced at £3m .. Multi TCF size on the next appraisal

Thanks good to see you invested too tradedesk.

I see 5p+ here with relative ease by end of Q4. If solo sold their 25% stake in Ruvuma on the same terms as AEX did recently and also sell their UKOG shares at current SP then they would have £24m in cash alone which is 4p. Add on their stake in Helium one and Kiliwani and youre knocking on the 5p door already...

Of course SOLO could fund their 25% share of the huge CH-1 appraisal due to spud end of Q4 from existing cash and ukog shares (gross well cost £12-13m or 3.5m net to solo). Given AEXs £65m valuation is based mostly on their fully carried 25% stake in Ruvuma as the flapship shows some interesting valuation dynamics.

Management could also opt to farm out say 10% of their stake on same terms as AEX would leave them with 15% and be fully carried to the initial 40mmcf (6700boepd) gross production target...

Many options.

New management seem.to.leverage good.deals as proven by their recent HH transaction. Also good to see them add a significant % last week in the OO.

Been buying here @ 2.3p

• £14m cap
• New Management Team
• Recent Director Buys / Aligned
• Debt free / No more death spiral
• £3m cash (Recent placing and OO)
• £5m value UKOG shares @ current SP
• £2m value in Helium-one (based on last funding round)
• £15m value from 25% Stake in Ruvuma gas discovery (#AEX recently farmout out 50% for $40m). Rumuma is the flagship asset. Includes 2 x large discoveries than both flowed around 20mmcf (3400boepd).
• 7% stake In Kiliwani North

Total direct current value £25m vs £14m Mcap.

Rumuma is the flagship asset. Includes 2 x large discoveries than each flowed around 20mmcf (3400boepd). Aminex recently farmout out 50% of their stake for $40m leaving them with a fully carried 25% stake and have MCap £65m. Ruvuma is their flagship asset (food for thought)..

Q4 Catalysts:

• Ruvuma: spudding of CH-1 (Funded from existing cash/UKOG shares). 750bcf (120mmbol eq) and is a lower risk appraisal to be put in to initial 40mmcf production (6700boepd).
• Ruvuma: possible sale of stake or full sale (if on same terms as AEX expect rerate).
• Liquidation of UKOG shares through upcoming Kimmeridge Testing.
• Kiliwani North re-commence gas production
• Helium-one commence drilling / aim to list on ASX 2019

Very strong results and SP at all time lows due to the seller (had 2.7% left one month ago)...Fortuna asset written off however new acquisition brings huge cashflow and doubles production to 27,000boepd...

I think we can surely say 38p was the floor here.

Have been building a position at 38-38.4p... seller wont have many left at all. Tomorrows results should make for some interesting reading.

They stopped selling yet?

Hopefully theyre on their last few dregs.

follow the money ;)

on open market.... the 1m share buy was him. Great show of confidence

https://www.voxmarkets.co.uk/rns/announcement/eaa8fae2-7044-4d82-9df8-5a9aaaef6559/