Member Info for Dustbin101

Thanks for your view.

Croda has no future unless they can get growth going across all divisions.

The Farma division is due to deliver from 2025 onwards.

Consumer care revenues are going to top a billion this year, but the need to deliver on new and protected products to stay out of the hands of others.( takeover).



Croda has a massive growth problem that requires addressing rapidly .

Third quarter sales numbers released this morning are depressing, consumer care growth of just 5%. Knock off inflation, and real revenues are near zero. !

A relief rally this morning, in the Croda stock, some were worried sales would have been worse.

Consumer Care

Reported sales in Consumer Care were up 5% versus the prior year whilst constant currency sales grew by 7%, driven by higher sales volumes as demand stabilised and ongoing customer regains were realised.

Consumer Care sales in the quarter were in line with our expectations. We saw ongoing momentum in Fragrances & Flavours and Home Care, as well as good demand from local customers in Beauty, but lower demand from multi-national Beauty customers compared to the previous quarter.

I can assure those reading this , Croda needs SBTX big time, to get growth up to and past 20% P/A, within the consumer care division.

One can see the way forward here , Croda sells its own Lysate formulations direct to local customers at v high margins . Those smaller companies can undercut the multi nationals and are happy to accept lower margins themselves.

(The high end multi nationals have mouth watering margins often over 50%.)

The multi nationals will get a lower price due to much huge higher orders.

Back to those numbers released this morning.

I put forward two reasons for the demand fall from the big players.

The first is well known, Far Eastern demand has slumped as consumers suffer from the Chinese slowdown.

The second : They are not keen of buying more Matrixyl, ( de stocking ), since they know it could be all change next year

Croda are flat out going bio across the groups skin care products, and has been buying up other companies to stay ahead.

My view has always been Matrixyl 3000 no longer makes the grade.

I would go so far as to say, customers, and end users, are calling out for a greener, sustainable, bio replacement .

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**In addition to its established ceramides and phospholipid businesses, Solus BioTech is developing a fermentation route to retinol, a high-​margin specialty chemical that is used in cosmetics as well as in health-care and pharmaceutical applications.

Though ceramides occur naturally in plant, animal, and fungal tissues, most of the ceramides on the market today are prepared by chemical synthesis. Croda’s purchase is in keeping with an industry-​wide race to offer biobased ingredients in response to strong demand from makers of personal care products.

In addition to its established ceramides and phospholipid businesses, Solus BioTech is developing a fermentation route to retinol, a high-​margin specialty chemical that is used in cosmetics as well as in health-care and pharmaceutical applications.

Though ceramides occur naturally in plant, animal, and fungal tissues, most of the ceramides on the market today are prepared by chemical synthesis. Croda’s purchase is in keeping with an industry-​wide race to offer biobased ingredients in response to strong demand from makers of personal care products.’’

*Recognising the development activity required by Croda, the Company anticipates revenue generation to commence from these additional agreements during 2021.”

I guess this is referring to plans Croda had at the time, for use in products outside skincare.

Roll on today, where the green light is on for skincare, and new agreements are due to be signed by 2024 year end, outside pure skincare.

I can understand it’s been extremely painful for long term share holders in SBTX.

Projects of this magnitude just about always cost 5 times budget with never ending extensions.

The AIM market is loaded with them, ANGLE has done nothing for 15 years, other than eat up other peoples cash.

Around a 1/3 of AIM listings have milked investors and then gone on to delist or go bust.

That’s all history and has no bearing on future prospects.

The time to invest, has to be now, or for some, as more updates from the company filter through

Now for the upside :

You have a very robust proven product , that may change the FACE of the world .

You’re partnered with the company that’s a market leader in anti ageing.

The IP is now clearly worth way more than five years ago.

It’s going to market right now

10% plus of near pure profit on sales is well worth the wait.

The potential market is off the scale

Those sales can grow at 100% a month, (from a low base.)

Matrixyl 3000 in my view, is well past its sell buy date, and only delivers a small improvement in the overall skin condition of about 1/5th.

Croda requires, higher sales, higher margins, a greener product, and vastly improved profits.

If the Lysate was rubbish Croda would have slung in down the drain, and moved on.

£2,500 with respect going in and out of this stock might make you £10,000 over time. ( if your the best trader under the sun.).

Ten or twenty bag, and you’re in a new league.

I think the difference between us is you don’t trust SBTX , and I do.

Hence I am all in.

I just don’t get buying anything, without conviction.( risk would be off the scale ).

Time will no doubt tell.

All the best.

Sat on a once in a lifetime blockbuster and you’re still fiddling, with the worry beads.

Did you miss national service ?

The Croda extension will have expired by that time.

10% chance SBTX sells out part ,or all, of itself prior to that deadline.

90% chance of shareholders being updated on Lysate forward sales.

50% chance of new Croda deals being announced, at the same time.

95% chance of Croda revenues this financial year

75% chance of another deal outside Croda by year end.

99% chance of director buys going forward

Gosh, not one of you would make an officer, or entrepreneur.

Walk tall , think big in life.

Shares are not about looking backwards

Focus on the future

Belgrano,

So sad to see an investor like yourself, riddled with worry, needing a director to hold your hand day and night. !!

Do us all a favour, put your cash in government bonds, and buy yourself an annuity in later life.

Don’t forget to insure the dog, pay the dental plan, and stay in on Friday the 13th.

You’re sitting on a potential 10-100 bagger where the odds are on your side.

Relax and try and enjoy. 😜

On the assumption a new agreement,( just for skincare ) , is required prior to the previous two running out , we should get news by the 20th of November.

I also doubt if the cosmetics industry will still be prepared to purchase Matrixyl 3000 as a mainstay, for very much longer.

They are all rapidly going green, to hit self imposed targets, by 2030.

Remember the pressure is on Croda to deliver to its own shareholders.

Oleric

We all have different attitudes towards investing.

However I can’t understand anyone investing in a stock unless they were 100% sure.

Croda is the key.

We know the product is great.

We know it’s going live in April 25

We know it’s green , bio, and sustainable.

We know it’s proven by science

We know the cosmetics Industry has set massive targets tor 2030

We know the first batch of sales numbers are due any day.

We know SBTX gets a minimum of 10% on Croda sales

We know Matrix 3000 is not green enough for the next few decades.

We know SBTX has other income streams.

Put those worry beads away.

Toyin,

Great research, and not a worry for shareholders.

Just gives prospective SBTX investors a very cheap way to pick up stock.

Absolutely no reflection on SBTX and its performance.

The very time those with conviction buy.

A max of 3 weeks to wait for Croda news.

Christophe Schilling, Chief Executive Officer for Geno said:

“Welcoming L’Oréal to this incredible team of global brand heavyweights signifies just how important and urgent the need is for traceable, resilient and sustainable materials, at scale. L’Oréal’s commitment further validates Geno’s ability to deliver at scale and accelerates our journey toward reducing global carbon emissions by over 100 million tons in the upcoming years by targeting large-scale material markets. We’re energized to help L’Oréal achieve its bold 2030 goals of incorporating 95% bio-based ingredients for formulas and using packaging materials that are traceable and from sustainable sources.

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Say goodbye to products used today.

To think Croda and our IP is hitting the market right now. !!

Tom has just updated

“”IMHO If Croda flies the shares will be well over a quid.””

Martinu

*But, when we get some hard facts from Croda we will be able to make some predictions with a bit more certainty. Cheers. MU.*

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You are correct when we get the numbers from Croda, you and others, can make predictions.

I for one like to get ahead of the broker, based on what we know, and then taking a view.

The very reason I purchased at 10p .

The penny has still not dropped , Croda work for us , all their resources and effort to produce a possible huge income stream for 20 years.

When the broker points that out , in the next few weeks and months, we will be on the same page.

All the best

SBTX has 11 full time staff as per the last accounts .

If Croda is a success , recurring revenues per SBTX worker, a few years down the line, could be way in excess of the very best in the USA.

Assuming recurring revenues hit £25M a year you’re talking £2M per SBTX staff member (10%) royalty.



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An increasingly important metric is shockingly simple: annual recurring revenue (ARR) per full-time employee (FTE).

Here’s how to tell whether you’re on the right track:

📈 $1-$5 million ARR: Good: $90k, Great: $150k+

📈 $5-$20 million ARR: Good: $150k, Great: $250k+

📈 $20-$50 million ARR: Good: $200k, Great: $275k+

📈 More than $50 million ARR: Good: $250k, Great: $300k+

Of course, there are notable outliers that stretch what’s possible as SaaS companies get big. Public SaaS companies see a median of $283k ARR per FTE and a top quartile of $369k ARR per FTE based on data powered by the team at Virtua Research. A few examples:

Box: $420k

Splunk: $455k

Adobe: $617k

Twilio: $771k

Dropbox: $799k

Fully valued. !!

Croda are in full swing

The product works better than investors and Croda thought it would.

The whole industry is going green

Amazon was overvalued for a decade , when it failed to show any profit .!!!

Proved by science

£44M Market cap requires just £1.5M of profit on a growth PE

Matrixyl does £350M a year and is well past its sale date .

15% of that for 20 years is a very real possibility.

Not to mention other uses

Broker is going to upgrade again , and again , me thinks.

SBTX price targets 29/10/24

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Tom Winnifrith 29p ( tip sheet ) by Xmas , £1.30 on Croda success.

Broker 48P ( updated half an hour ago to 56p, ) without any Croda revenue

S/A is working hard , (and very confident), of cashing in his share options that require a share price in excess of 80P , for the first wedge, and one pound for the second.

Mr MC Geever (shareholder) £1.80 shorter term, possible take out price in 3 or 4 years £10.00 to £12.00

Mr M Geever, built up and sold out Transguard group, starting with just 12 staff.

He is one of the very few who understand the growth machine In business, having done it himself.

About Us

Transguard Group was established in 2001 and has diversified significantly, now leading in the fields of Cash Services, Security Services, Manpower Services and Facilities Management. Transguard is the UAE’s most trusted business support and outsourcing provider and has a large, dynamic and culturally diverse workforce numbering in excess of 61,000 people.

My personal target is my 10p purchase price to £10.00.

From my prospective it is absolutely nuts to attempt to trade this share, all one needs to do is wait for the potential massive recurring revenues to arrive from Croda.

You might make enough for a new car, but why do that, when the longer term rewards could be staggering.