Member Info for Dustbin101

Sophie 98

TW was told his numbers were about right. !!!

The numbers were monetary not %

FACT

The added issue for Croda is its policy of being 90% green by 2030 its written policy. ( around the same % of cosmetics companies have set themselves that same target ).

Thus it will be phased out.

Plus the new Lysate will be an improvement on Matrixyl , if it were not , it would not be hitting the market at all.

- Matrixyl®: 25% natural content* / 78.49% natural origin content*

- Matrixyl 3000®: 25% natural content* / 78.49% natural origin content*

- Matrixyl® synthe'6®: 20% natural content* / 99.8% natural origin content*

- Matrixy|® Morphomics®: 95.75% natural content* / 99.79% natural origin content*

I think not , just like the Croda science, I can prove it on long term past performance.

Hence I take zero notice of your posts , set to wind up posters on this board.

I freely admit up until this week you have had the upper hand, SBTX has not previously delivered.

My advice is to move on and close that short.

That brings the brokers forecast forward 4 years.

Just sit back and wait for the house brokers upgrades to start.

They are behind the curve.

I am not.

My Croda revenue forecast for full year 2025 - 2026 , is £5M to SBTX

That’s requires just £34M of Croda revenue @ 15% to SBTX.

Total revenues from the consumer care division are a tad over one billion a year.

3.4% of that, is undemanding for a potential blockbuster.

Could be way higher.





The house broker may not have produced any research , but I have .

Investors and potential investors should go and read page 23.

Croda International Plc

2024 half year results

Analyst presentation

30 July 2024.

Page 23.

//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

The left hand chart tells investors what segment of CRODA’S customers are taking up new skin care products, at launch.

The chart below on the same page, shows the market share of the multi nationals v local and regional sales by Croda , year on year.

New local and regional companies are rapidly grabbing market share from the larger multi nationals. ( they are in no position to grind down on the price, they pay Croda. )

Croda has been targeting these L&R companies with great success .

………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………

93% of L&R Croda customers are taking up new skin care products at launch , and they represent 78% of CRODA’S. sales within consumer care . Those sales are running at one billion pounds a year.

…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………

Add in the multi nationals ( we are not given the numbers ), but can assume it’s very high, they are already losing market share, we have take up rates across the board of around 87% at launch to look forward to.

…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………

Hang on a second, I have missed something !!!

These published numbers from Croda are based on run of the mill skin care launches, NOT one that’s about to change the FACE of the world .

Hence the take up rate will no doubt be higher.

………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..

My conclusion :

First full year income from Croda to SBTX will be massive, add in social media, proven science, bio, sustainable, and green.

= A BLOCKBUSTER

Sophie98.

The world of SBTX changed yesterday.

Your short position will cost you dear in the months and years ahead.

Worse than that, the pain of watching , old and new investors, making shed loads of dosh will eat you up.!!

As of yesterday

SBTX has a FTSE 100 company working flat out on our behalf.

Nice.

Oh dear that’s not going to go down well with Sophie98 !!

Sophie98

For a realistic stab at first year revenues look for £5M from Croda , that will be July 25 to June 26 for SBTX.

Croda sales required to achieve that £35M at 15% to SBTX or £50M at 10%.

Sophie 98

Your sums

World skincare market $160 Bn a year.

Croda consumer care revenues £1Bn a year ( Worlds number one anti ageing ingredient supplier.)

First year Lysate sales by Croda £5M ( 10% to SBTX ) = your £500,000.

Top ten Croda customers get £500,000 each the other 12,000 get zero.

To sum up your projections

Croda launches its next blockbuster product and expects first year sales to be 0.5% of revenues

Advice ; close that short.!!

You may have been right in the past.

It changed yesterday :

One needs to focus on the amount of revenue Croda requires from its consumer care division .

To get any serious growth it requires an additional £200M a year, while at the same time replacing lost Matrixyl sales .

That is a total of £1.2BN a year of sales required

Croda needs this new income stream to come from new and protected sales. ( high margin )

Those thinking of £500,000 for SBTX in year one , would imply the new Lysate being just 0.5% of Croda sales in that division at 10% to SBTX or nearer 0.35% at 15% to SBTX.

Break that down ,and your telling me , the top ten cosmetics companies in the world are going to get just £1M each of the Lysate in the first year , and all the other 12,000 customers get nothing. !

We have been told a single customer buys £35M of Matrixyl in a single year. !!

Sophie 98 , your numbers are I am afraid, for the playground.

You will find on this thread :

The old timers, inc some deadbeats who have seen 7 years of grind letdowns and placings .

Many are bitter, from the experience . One can understand that.

New investors on the other hand can’t believe their luck, being able to pick up stock under 40p after today’s update.

These events are likely to take time to finalise and are complicated and riddled with legal requirements so patience is required. Skinbio is entering into a long term agreement with a significantly larger partner, they are not popping down to Ikea to make a purchase , we will all have to accept that we will have to wait before we are provided with more information that should provide flesh to the bones.

Yep it is crystal clear

Great post

Or just leave out financial

Which they did

You are getting revenues this year.

The RNS does not mention financial year end .

Thus loan could be paid down within 6 weeks

Not financial year end ;

So within the next 6 weeks.