RE: Risks and threats to the DVRG offering7 Oct 2021 17:20
Dingodog1 - First, thanks for a great thread.
This is a thorny subject potentially, diplomacy required. Pilgrim, Des, Monkey, have made many excellent points already and as I pondered your broad question 'what risks?' I can't think of too many - 'at this price', and therein lies the caveat.
Risks are relative, we all recognise this, as is value. At this price, the relative risk (the potential downside) seems low, and more so with the prospect of good revenues beginning to flow (STC, Labskin).
I did some analysis again, playing with numbers, this time with the USA in mind - things quickly got out of hand, I thought "I can't post that". The potential numbers are frightening. I used a target demographic between 19-64, it's around 200M M+F. I pared back and pared back and still ended with crazy figures:
(Actual US capacity 20,000*85= $20.4M Dollars - but can scale with partnered lab capacity (roughly 6) 120,000 tests = $122M
Take up potential of target? 6%/1% fem+male 1.2M+200K = 1.4M Lots of lab space required.
so 1.4M*$85= $119M P/Annum poss?) Madness. Uk China Europe ROW - Data $$$
The exchange between Katie Pilbeam? and Gerard re: wasted product, incorrect product typifies this market. All over the developed world, women and men are spending fortunes on unsuitable product.
With the acquisition of MW the business took on risk, and the headache of turning the business around to become a profitable, sustainable entity. That's a risk - can GB and team do it, I think so, and they are making significant headway. Water monitoring is a high initial capital costs business, traditionally a tough sell, 'Covid' has changed that I feel, considerably, as was highlighted in the Reuters event video and In video posted (by Trillsg: https://app.sli.do/event/fatyk7ol/live/questions) yesterday. The deal with China Resources is, I feel, at this 'price' neutral; there has been no huge surge in MCap bloating value, filling the SP full of mere sentiment. However, as a value driver into the future, it is surely pivotal; it offers the prospect of significantly lower per unit costs, the prospect of substantially lower cost bar to entry to implement such technology, and China sales.
GB himself; he's a character, no doubt, bit of a loose canon, a maverick. He frustrates me often. Retireby40 said of him recently "he bends the truth" and I would concur with that view, his boundless enthusiasm often means he overstates. I have told him (indirectly through feedback) that he should err on the side of precision, curtail those grandiose statements, or temper and bookend with timeframes. Statements of late have demonstrated a new-found caution. Am I saying he's a 'risk', not as such, just an acknowledgement that this kind of highly dynamic, hard worker sometimes gets a little ahead; that said, I like the guy, he has vision, great work ethic.
So for me low risk 'from here'. Big upside potential and, as was mention a couple of times elsewhere, a good place