Member Info for DRichi

£5.50 for a pint round here is fairly normal. (My local charges £5 a pint for tourists with 20% off for us regulars).

However, 10 minute walk from where the PPC knees up is next Tuesday is the Craft Beer Co pub where you can pay £22.50 for a pint!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
https://metro.co.uk/2018/08/27/theres-a-pub-in-london-thats-now-charging-22-50-a-pint-7886660/

Madness. Walked past the place a few times, but never been in, and at those prices I won't be stopping off any time soon either.

Current workovers are 2 gas in EV and 3 oil in PF. Work started end of June time. I'm guessing it'll be completed 1st week in Sept.

Timing doesn't matter too much really, the important thing is the results. If this can add 600BOEPD from EV, and 500+ BOPD from PF then that would be fantastic. Here's hoping....

WhichWayNow- Thanks for the link to the Edison report. Some interesting reading there.

PF- target is to double production.

PG- new well exploration drilling planned in 2019, and, "President also holds 100% of the Matorras and Ocultar licences in the area surrounding Puesto Guardian. The company launched a farm out process for these two licences and the deeper exploration prospects in Puesto Guardian in early 2018 and has reported that interest to date is
encouraging".
Would be great to see a farm-out deal done here. C'mon PPC, c'mon....

Agreed, very little volume, so not going to be any real movement.

Workover results due soon though but that could be this week, next week, or the week after. Good news from these 5 wells will push the SP up x amount depending how successful they are. If the workovers go as well as the first three wells, then total Group Prod could go up to 4000 BOPD.

Production was 600BOPD 18 months ago, so 4000BOPD really should make people sit up take notice and invest.

PF- The 1st three successful workovers had an RNS on May 14th confirming they had started (although start date was probably prior to 14th) and an RNS confirming the success of the programme on June 18th. There are three more Puesto Flores field wells being worked over plus two Gas wells in EV. If these started end of June, then probably a completion RNS is due soon. The SP is ticking up a little bit before news, this usually means that the news is will be good......

Or this has just been a technical bounce when there's no news as it is August, the City is asleep, and there's nothing to see here (anywhere) and we should all just go on holiday or watch the cricket or Zzzzzzz. I hope the little tick up, is followed by a bigger tick up, and then a really good RNS on say Thursday which sends PPC motoring. I also hope that England are still batting at Stumps today. I'll keep my fingers crossed for both these things....

GLA

looking at Friday's trade prices, there a chance that the 9.15p and 9.2p on Friday afternoon were Buys. 9.01p looks like the Sell price. Just guessing, but it might be right

NorthernM, Bigsmoke- 10p+ this week would be nice. Company is definitely worth a lot more than that, so the tick-up will come. Just tricky to say when exactly....

SonsofG- An acquisition would definitely be a very good thing, but, the Reuters link talks about Argentina opening up areas of the sea to bid on. Offshore would be very different from what PPC currently does. If there was the right partnership available this could potentially help PPC increase exponentially and become a real big Oil & gas player. Or Offshore might be a step too far, and PPC should 1st increase production in PG & PF, have exploration drills in Paraguay and not think about Offshore for now.

Puesto Guardian has oil. The stated aim last year was to increase production from there to 1200 BOPD. That failed. Due to dodgy pumps not working, then the Chinese pumps bought to replacement them failed too. This has been a big disappointment. During the same time period there was the purchase of PF- and overall production of BOPD increased lots, and as a result PG was kind of been swept under the carpet a bit.

PG production is currently stable at 500 BOPD.

I do not know if any work is being done on this behind the scenes, but a year ago it was said with pumps working it should produce 1200 BOPD. One day, I suppose PPC will tackle this again, and increase production here. My gut feeling here is that after stating the objective last year and failing, is that when PPC goes back to increasing Prod in PG, there will not be any notification, no RNS until it's up and running successfully.

Nosugar- sorry went off on a tangent there. In answer to your question about BOD salary. These last 12 months, costs have been cut significantly with members of the board released.

Looking through the 2017 Annual Report there is no breakdown of individual salary's (of course) but total administrative costs for Director and all staff = $4,048,000.

Ps. Razzle- haha! Ah yeah, pre-internet days, seems a long time ago

RKH- Oh that takes me back. I was invested there years ago when it went from 25p a share to £5 in one week when it struck oil in the Falklands. PL's Imperial Energy of course went all the way to £12, and I think GKP went sky high too at one point, CHAR as well went from 10p to £2 or something like that (IIRC).

For years I was invested here in PPC hoping for something similar with the Paraguay exploration plays that didn't come off. Still have dreams of a big acquisition transforming the SP here, or maybe a successful drilling campaign in Paraguay next year (or even an overdue SP re-rate). But really these days, this feels more like a sensible, conservative investment where we should see steady price increases based on production increases.

Any SP rise is welcome of course. Slow and steady would be fine, but wouldn't it be nice to be surprised with a transformational acquisition. Hey ho, one can but hope.....

The PF calcs refer to an extra 600 BOPD from the 3-well development program to commence in late Sept. This is different to the 7-well workover program which is underway at the moment.

Total Prod of 2.7k currently (I think), includes 2100BOPD from PF, which is the figure after 3 successful workovers from a 7 well workover program to be concluded this month. The 4 wells being worked on are 2 oil at PF and 2 gas at EV.

Reading the RNS's- the 1st 3 wells at the PF workover program added aprox 1000 BOPD, as total group production has gone up from 1700 to 2700. If the 2 oil workovers underway at PF now are similarly successful that would be an extra 666BOPD, plus howevermuch gas from EV.

Estimating YE production figures= Current Prod (2700) + current workovers (666) + EV gas (?) + development program PF (600BOPD) + EV (500BOEPD) = aprox 4500 BOPD.

That's a 67% increase on today's Production figures by YE. All adding to cash flow, and increasing chances of PPC being able to take other opportunities E.g. Paraguay, Acquisitions, etc.

100k, 250k, 117k all Buys (by my reckoning). Let's hope we can see lots more of this coming soon, and the SP to tick-up accordingly.....

(Having said that, the Ask is 9.2 so a tick up might just be to 9.4 which is what LSE is saying it is now, so not really earth shattering news- but still, good buying pressure is always nice).

Yeah my buy is showing as a sell. True Ask is 9.1999, which is what I paid (in my Barclays ISA).

Lift off? I've been here for a while now, avg at just under 10p a share. I'm hoping for the SP to be at least double that by YE, and then I'll sell some if for no other reason than to make my wife happy so she can't tell me off for 'gambling' my savings! Haha! I'm sure this will come good. Just looking fwd to that day....

On one hand, I'm really frustrated with the SP not being anywhere near fair value. On the other hand sooner or later this will be corrected. I'm hoping for this to the end the year 20p+ so hey ho, just bought another 21k to throw on the pile.

This has to come very good soon.........

That's an extra 600 BOPD from the 3 well programme commencing end Sept + 500 more Gas BOEPD from EV. Cash flows over $2M pcm. Great update.

Updates from the current workover program still to come. And acquisition still being actively looking into.

Be nice to finish the week back at 10p+ a share.

All looks good here- with positive cash flow that means no more share dilution, so knowing that, maybe some EM Funds might buy in?? That would really give the SP a big tick up.

Northern- totally agree. PL on the investor calls & Q&A at the AGM very much gives the impression that he wants to tell the full story of the ones that have gotten away so far this year, and also give us more details on what the current/next target is. I guess it's a bit like fishing, a few got away so far, but we're still in the boat, lines over the side, hoping to catch a big one.

Here's hoping for a big producing acquisition soon........

It's a very undervalued company atm certainly, but will only move up on good news. In the near future there's 2 sets of news that are due.
1) Workover completion- this should be done by end Aug, and the impact of the SP will be proportionate to how many additional BOPD the worked-over wells can produce.
2) Half-year results due by end Sept giving full financial disclosure of BOPD from each basin, and $$ received per well.

These 2 things are known; BIG things like an acquisition might happen tomorrow, could be Nov, could be next year or might not happen; and, next year drilling in Paraguay may/may not bring huge results.

End Aug + end Sept 2 RNS's that should lead to a re-rate. Somewhere 14p-18p looks reasonable based on the company valuations by knowledgable posters below. There's other stuff that would give the SP a decent tick up if sorted out too; legal resolution on dispute, Chinese pumps at PG, Triche well extra 5% after capped out limit reached. But I don't know of any timescales on these.

President have done a good job of engaging PI's recently with investor calls. I think the recordings should be available on their website, or twitter. Definitely worth a listen as it will give you an idea of current works in progress and estimated timescales.

But until news, it's just about having patience. Sort out your FF team, get some beers in the fridge ready for MOTD on Saturday, enjoy the 2nd Test vs India. This SP should go up significantly soon, but that ain't happening today....

I understand that extracting oil reserves is on a curve rather than straight line basis, but for the sake of keeping the maths simple; if PPC extracted 7400 BOPD, that's 2.7M barrels a year which would mean that it would take PPC 10 years to use up all the 27MM reserves. (and PPC are a long way from getting 7400 BOPD atm).

I think the issue is not that PPC are likely to run out of Reserves, more the issue is that PPC can't get the oil out of the ground fast enough.

Brasso- Your figures use $67 a barrel at PF, and $65 at PG. The price fixing is being lifted by the Argentine Gov so that PPC will be receiving market price (current $74) a barrel. Accepting everything else in your calcs, that uplift in netbacks per barrel alone gives an adjusted SP of 16.3p rather than 14.3p

PF - 1800 BOPD at $74/ barrel (net backs $54/ barrel) = $35.5m
PG - 500 BOPD at $74/ barrel (net backs $54/ barrel) = $9.9m
ELV - 300 at $70/ barrel (net backs $55/ barrel) = $6m

Annualised profit before tax = $51m (£39.5m). A PE of around 5 would therefore mean PPC should be worth £188m (£198m - debt). £188m equates to around 16.3p a share.

BUT..... A PE of 5x !?!?!??! That's not enough. Generally in O&G a PE of 20-25x is a more usual ratio. A PE of 20x would be 4x the 16.3p a share = that's 65.2p

That's also based on the Production figures of 2600 BOPD. With the current successful workover program in Argentina, I'm hoping PPC can get nearer to 4000 BOPD, that's optimistic, but even a conservative estimate is 3000+.

Still whichever way all of us have cut the calcs the point is that PPC is extremely undervalued. I would love to see PPC produce 4000 BOPD, get $74 per barrel, and have a PE of 25x. That would make it over £1 a share. £1 a share would mean I could give up my job in the City, and move somewhere by the beach and take it easy. Maybe there's no big uptick, and maybe PPC continues to drift some more, but for sure it's cheap as chips at these prices, and so I hold, wait and hope for a the day when the big price rise comes......

5/8's- Very good summary, thx.

21 Sep 2017. Aprox 1000 BOPD at $55 and the SP = 7.2p
Today- Aprox 3000 BOPD at $68 (and will be going to market rates which is $74 atm) and the SP is 9p

Makes PPC extremely undervalued IMHO. I hope this is because that although we who follow PPC know about it's successes this year, the wider market doesn't yet, and probably won't until either there's some big news, or the 1/2 Year accounts are published.

Very roughly: if 1000 BOPD * $55 = 7.2p then 3000 BOPD * $68 should = 27p

Here's hoping the 1/2 year financials have the desired impact and PPC gets the right re-rating....