Member Info for DRichi

Pietros- I think most of us here share your frustration that the SP hasn't rocketed on a years worth of good news. 12p last Feb producing 1700 BOPD, now 3300 BOPD with much more in the pipeline and the SP is 9p. Madness really.

I keep telling myself that this means the share is very undervalued at the moment, so when good news comes and the SP starts to shift, all the success of 2018 will get factored it too, and really help move the SP...

(One can but hope....)

President has supplied the market with 2018 unaudited highlights this morning which confirm a ‘dramatic improvement ‘ from the previous year. A 160% increase in turnover to $47.2m (17.9), adjusted EBITDA in excess of $16m (loss 1.4) giving operational profit of $14.3 (loss 4.3). Perhaps more tellingly the free cash generation was up 498% to $21.5m (3.6) and well operating costs per barrel decreased 16% to $29.50 ($35.05).

The company says that these figures show that they ‘have not been materially adversely affected by recent macroeconomic turbulence in Argentina’ with equity and bond bourses recovering and a much more stable forex rate.

Production this year continues to be sustained at 3,300 boepd in particular from the now core Rio Negro assets which show a y/y improvement of some 70%. This year will see six workovers of currently shut in producing wells together with additional reactivations scheduled to commence at the end of March. To add to that a drilling programme of both oil and gas wells will get under way which have the potential to ‘materially increase production ‘ and after last year who would bet against it. The focus on gas is of some significance as explained by Peter Levine in the recent conference call, where he detailed the advantages that it would offer. The company will, by the second half not only be producing enough gas to power its own fields but be selling gas through its own pan-regional pipeline network as well as selling electricity to the national grid.

I expect the excellent performance from last year to carry on in 2019 and for President to continue to deliver the goods this year. With a substantial drilling programme and the ability to sniff out more M&A opportunities they have all the bases covered for ‘exponential growth ‘ as they put it, couldn’t phrase it better myself, certainly huge upside potential from here.

Broker @finnCap commented that “ 2018 was a transformational year for the group, with strong growth in production and cash flow, and sharply improved profits and sees more to come in 2019” #presidentenergy #oil #natgas #gas #OOTT #Argentina

Broker @PanmureGordon commented – “@PresidentPlc is delivering, driving a powerful growth story in #Argentina.” – reiterating its target price of 15p per share for President, a 70% upside

Very solid RNS.

The current year has begun well. Net Group production of 3,300 boepd is being sustained.
Group well operating costs per barrel decreased 16% to US$29.50 versus 2017 (2017 - US$35.05)

If we say avg cost of barrel of oil sold this year = $65. Then netbacks a barrel= $35. 3300 BOPD * 365 days * $35 = $42,157,500 PROFIT in 2019.

Plus there is lots more upside from all the planned well workovers.

President could be a very different company (in terms of market share & SP) by the end of 2019.

GLA.........

The Buys/Sells as stated on LSE are calculated as in today with a Bid of 9p and an Ask of 9.5p everything under 9.25 will go down as a Sell, and everything priced above that is classed as a Buy. I think the issue here is that the Bid and Ask prices are not actually correct and that looking at the trades from yesterday it's more likely that the Bid was 9.05/9.06 and the Ask was 9.18/919.

I read on the Edison report from October 2018, a target of 5000 BOPD, but that seems very conservative to me. With the pipeline of work in 2019, 10,000 BOPD is a more realistic target no?

https://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com/researchreports/GB00B3DDP128PresidentQV221018.pdf

@Rob Shepherd - (If you're reading this) - firstly, many congratulations on a successful 2018, and exceeding the 3000 BOPD target for that. Secondly; please can you confirm when/where the 2019 target will be published? (As this would be very interesting to know).

Also, would be really good if in any presentation of this you could include a roadmap to Dividends. E.g. If all workovers, development are successful are increase daily production to say, x barrels per day by 2019 YE, and exploratory drilling increases reserves by y amount then President will look to pay 1st dividend in Q1 2020.

Cheers!

David

We could charter it for a week for €145,000. I think that excludes petrol & any mooring fees....

https://www.yachtcharterfleet.com/luxury-charter-yacht-45812/imperial-princess-beatrice.htm

Sons of Gwalia- just read the Gwalia link you posted. Ouch! That's a terrible story, and a very unlucky investment. Sorry for your luck there.

(as far as I'm aware) President is nothing like that. It's turning a very decent profit, making millions each month, and there's much more to come with the 2019 roadmap of significantly increasing production. I think the current SP is very undervalued, and with all the production increases to come and hopeful of some big rises this year.

Also, there is the snowball effect here, more production = more disposable income = more chances of additional acquisitions and even more increases to the SP. I don't know any information that's not in the public domain, but personally I would not be surprised to see an acquisition in 2019. Why not? Let's hope it goes really big hey......

Interviews: Everyone should be prepped before an interview- otherwise the answer to a lot of questions could be "I don't know" or "I'm sorry I don't have that information to hand".

Taking the company private: we as shareholders would have to vote in favour of that. If it ever comes to that anyone buying at these prices will make a very large profit, so it wouldn't be all bad...

be interesting to see the figures when the Gas goes to market then. Another string to PPC's bow. It all helps certainly....

I was under the impression that the Gas was a little bit on the side type of operation. That the primary purpose was to power PPC's ops, so that they did not have to buy any and saved £££ in operational costs. If there's any gas left over to sell, then that's a bonus.

I posted yesterday details of the 2019 plans (taken from President's Dec presentation). This is 12 Workover & Development programmes and 4 Exploratory drills.

12 Workover & Development programmes this year. Let's take a (very) conservative estimate and say each one of these is a 2 well programme (usually 3 or 4 E.g. will be 4 in Louisiana). 12 * 2 wells- each one adding an avg 200 BOPD = 4800 BOPD. That is HUGE for President and will take group production from 3200 to 8000 BOPD.

Plus 4 exploratory drills to come. Any one of those could be a game changer....

Plus, from the 2018 Q4 campaign we can expect to see a significant increase in the 1P reserves when the report is published (Feb? March?). An increase to the 1P numbers will = a increase to the SP.

Lots of reasons to be optimistic here methinks. This time next year Rodney.....

2 trades now, both Buys, the SP is gonna rocket soon.......... ;-)

Seriously though, that is the issue. President has gone from producing 600 BOPD at end of 2016, to 3300 at end of 2018, and 2019 will see significantly more growth. This is at the same time as diversifying location and production and reducing costs. President is a well run company that will continue to improve over 2019. The bigger question about the SP is more to do with the macro-economy. E.g. Who's investing in oil & gas in developing countries at the moment?

Suggest that everyone who is meeting a Hedge Fund Manager for a drink this weekend ramps up PPC and gets them to invest millions. That should help the SP..... Or if anyone meets Jeff Bezos ex-wife and she's wondering what to do with the divorce money....

Good point about the gas. I was just listing the planned oil workovers, development, exploration in existing fields.

The gas should lower costs, and potentially bring in some extra revenue too.

Also the $7M for Estancia Vieja & Puesto Flores was paid off in December, so that's one big debt cleared which means money generated can go more to investing further in growing the company

This is the pipeline of work in the 1st 6 months of 2019 that President is undertaking.
Puesto Flores- Workovers
Puesto Guardian- Workovers
Puesto Prado- Workover/reactivation
Las Bases- Workover/reactivation and Drilling Exploration

Each one of these (if successful) should provide a bump to the Share Price, but it's in the 2nd half of this year that the BIG possibilities come.
Puesto Flores- Drilling development, Drilling Exploration, Workovers
Estancia Vieja- Drilling exploration, Workovers
Puesto Guardian- Workovers
Puesto Prado- Drilling development, Workover/reactivation
Las Bases- Drilling development, Drilling Exploration
Paraguay- Drilling Exploration
Louisiana- Drilling development

Lots of opportunities to increase the SP. I think this is a share to definitely hold till year end. Should be a very different SP by then. 4 different exploratory drills coming in 4 different basins in 3 different countries.

Workovers and development to take this to 30p a share, if exploratory drills hit then the SP could go very big......

On the call, it was confirmed that the published rates for the 3 wells worked-over was correct, but that they are not being run at capacity at the moment due to a) flows rates from wells decline, issues arise, so my keeping some under capacity they are able to turn up flows on others to keep daily production figures stable as required, and b) by turning up the pressure, increasing flows also increases the amount of water that comes through so the oil is of lesser quality.

I was hoping for circa 4000 BOPD as a 2018 exit rate, so am underwhelmed by the figures. Am reminding myself that 2018 saw a 50% increase in Production, costs cut, oil prices up, and netbacks per barrel up, as well as laying the groundwork for many more workovers & therefore Production increases in Argentina and Louisiana.

2018 was solid then, but perhaps it's best seen as laying the groundwork for 2019, which hopefully will turn out to be a very prosperous year for all invested here..... GLA

to be seen at end of Q1 according to Malcy;

"The main result of the successful drilling programme is expected to be seen when the next reserves report is published in March, shareholders can reasonably expect a significant increase in 1P reserves which the company correctly deem to be most important. During the conference call the Chairman said that the report would concentrate on the Rio Negro province and of reserves pretty much only as they are of paramount importance, rest assured the 2P and more are likely to add significant upside when calculated. Given how the market values anything outside P1 numbers I consider this a refreshing and workmanlike attitude to resource valuations.

For 2019 there will be a significant drilling campaign in Argentina which will ramp up into 2H and long lead planning will be underway for Paraguay. In order to maximise all possibilities the company will be doing workovers in Rio Negro in order to enhance economies of scale as well as increasing gas production to power its own fields and to create cash sales. In addition to this there will be a four well drilling campaign in Jefferson Island, Louisiana getting underway in 2Q 2019. Overall President remains ‘focused on costs and margins and creating greater economies of scale generated by significant production growth’ and if 2018 is anything to go by shareholders are in for an exciting and profitable ride."

The last RNS's confirming flow rates for these three wells were: 600, 250, 200. Let's wait and see what makes up the 3300 and hopefully there are more increases pending.

I think there will be. I think 3300 is downplaying the number so that 2019 can have a quick increase. here's hoping I'm right....

The 3300 BOPD , "is being achieved without the benefit of any contribution from the Las Bases Concession and with only a limited contribution from the Puesto Prado and Estancia Vieja fields"

My interpretation of this is that Group Production will be more like 3825 BOPD once the latest three (all successful) drills are fully online.

So very good RNS, solid years performance, and there's already an additional 525BOPD waiting in the pipeline to be added to total Production. Expect an RNS confirming this later in January, which should produce another boost to the SP.